Russia Invades

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NewClaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:42 am

Love it when people say “this is not a bluff”, knowing people won’t believe them because they lie so much!

So weak.

I don’t even believe they have 300000 reservists. Or that they will be able to locate them if they did!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:09 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:52 am
That doesn't work for me.
I know Putin is living in self isolation, but even he can't be daft enough to think that Ukraine are going to stop fighting now.
They are getting stronger, Russia are weaker, if they weren't prepared to negotiate 6 months ago, there isn't a cat in hells chance now.
Even his partial mobilisation won't work, it takes too long to train them, they aren't as well drilled, and they've got very little arms left to give them.
imo he is just seeking an internal excuse to use nukes in Ukraine, which is why it is so important that NATO let him know what the consequences of that will be. It still wouldn't stop him, but it might stop some of his Generals.
But you can't use nukes in your own territory, and certainly not if all your troops are not NBC trained or equipped

And the fall out will contaminate Russia, and kill thousands of Russians and ethnic Russians

Its a huge bluff, and a sign of how desperate they are that they are prepared to go down this route, and its a threat they hope will bring Ukraine to the table prepared to give up something that Russia and Putin can spin as a victory

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:17 am

Best thing Ukraine can do now is crack on, liberate more territory and expose that the reservists don’t exist (or can’t be mobilised quickly). Russians will lose patience with this mad man.

West really needs to implement every sanction possible and tighten the noose.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:01 am

The rat is getting cornered, the concern is that he will only consider his own skin, so his options are dwindling.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:21 am

My 2 pence worth.
300,000 reservist’s, with Russias 1 year service for most lads, should be that amount to call up.

Equipment, let’s start with guns.
There have been several pictures with troops with single shot first WW guns in Ukraine already, so what arms are these troops going to have?

Been lots of pictures of troops with no boots, wearing trainers. The clothing is not the best either and winter is only weeks away.

Most don’t have body armour either.

That’s before we get to night vision Goggles. Which have been pouring into Ukrainians hands.


Do I agree with Lancaster that it’s a bluff, don’t think so. I think Putin is stuck in the belief, that if he throws enough men at the problem, they will win.

It appears to me a classic failure to learn from history, throwing 300,000 people into a winter battle ill equipped to fight let alone be prepared for the weather that’s coming. We know how that went for the Nazi’s.

They are about to be stuck using just roads to move tracked vehicles, the HIMARS and gps guided 155mm munitions will destroy almost anything moving by road.

Likely the first of these guys to hit the front by the end of Oct. In Nov the average night temps are minus 1 and then minus 5 in Dec. It’s -7 in Jan and Feb. What is he thinking.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:24 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:21 am
My 2 pence worth.
300,000 reservist’s, with Russias 1 year service for most lads, should be that amount to call up.

Equipment, let’s start with guns.
There have been several pictures with troops with single shot first WW guns in Ukraine already, so what arms are these troops going to have?

Been lots of pictures of troops with no boots, wearing trainers. The clothing is not the best either and winter is only weeks away.

Most don’t have body armour either.

That’s before we get to night vision Goggles. Which have been pouring into Ukrainians hands.


Do I agree with Lancaster that it’s a bluff, don’t think so. I think Putin is stuck in the belief, that if he throws enough men at the problem, they will win.

It appears to me a classic failure to learn from history, throwing 300,000 people into a winter battle ill equipped to fight let alone be prepared for the weather that’s coming. We know how that went for the Nazi’s.

They are about to be stuck using just roads to move tracked vehicles, the HIMARS and gps guided 155mm munitions will destroy almost anything moving by road.

Likely the first of these guys to hit the front by the end of Oct. In Nov the average night temps are minus 1 and then minus 5 in Dec. It’s -7 in Jan and Feb. What is he thinking.
Just to qualify here

I think the nuclear threat is a bluff

I'm perfectly capable of believing that Putin thinks that only reason Russia is failing is not enough men, he is Russian after all and will be be perfectly capable of thinking that a bunch of reservists with 1960s era tanks, equipment and weapons can change the tide of the war

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by jos » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:29 am

Ref :- Rob Lee

It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1572 ... -5897naBRA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by gawthorpe_view » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:39 am

Putin knows the he is either President or a dead man.
There's no retiring to the Dacha for him.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:40 am

NewClaret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:17 am
Best thing Ukraine can do now is crack on, liberate more territory and expose that the reservists don’t exist (or can’t be mobilised quickly). Russians will lose patience with this mad man.

West really needs to implement every sanction possible and tighten the noose.
On Sanctions. I don’t think there is much more we can do.

The biggest sanction the west could imposed is Gas, he has done that himself. The gas supply to Europe has been turned off. That’s the biggest single sanction, that’s where Russia gets most of its money. It’s now getting nothing and apparently just burning it off into the atmosphere.

America has increased Sanctions on China which I found out yesterday, due to its reaction to the Polosi visit to Taiwan.
It’s stopped Boeing delivering any more planes to China and put a ban in aero tech and chip manufacturing equipment and any transfer of IP.

https://youtu.be/VKQQdjtcr2c

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:42 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:24 am
Just to qualify here

I think the nuclear threat is a bluff

I'm perfectly capable of believing that Putin thinks that only reason Russia is failing is not enough men, he is Russian after all and will be be perfectly capable of thinking that a bunch of reservists with 1960s era tanks, equipment and weapons can change the tide of the war
Ok, I did misunderstand.
So basically I think we do agree then? I agree the Nuke threat is a bluff.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by KRBFC » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:46 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:52 am
That doesn't work for me.
I know Putin is living in self isolation, but even he can't be daft enough to think that Ukraine are going to stop fighting now.
They are getting stronger, Russia are weaker, if they weren't prepared to negotiate 6 months ago, there isn't a cat in hells chance now.
Even his partial mobilisation won't work, it takes too long to train them, they aren't as well drilled, and they've got very little arms left to give them.
imo he is just seeking an internal excuse to use nukes in Ukraine, which is why it is so important that NATO let him know what the consequences of that will be. It still wouldn't stop him, but it might stop some of his Generals.
Why would he use nukes on his own people? according to Google there is 11-12 million Russians in Ukraine.
He'd also be ending his own life and his families when the NATO reaction Nuke is dropped in Moscow.

There is absolutely no chance of Nuclear weapons being used.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:46 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:42 am
Ok, I did misunderstand.
So basically I think we do agree then? I agree the Nuke threat is a bluff.
I think everyone agrees that Putin will push this as far as he thinks he can

Always was going to be a long war, and its not going to solved by letting Russia win

As I said really early on, this changes everything for the West, and its a whole new world that we have to learn to deal with

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:50 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:09 am
But you can't use nukes in your own territory, and certainly not if all your troops are not NBC trained or equipped

And the fall out will contaminate Russia, and kill thousands of Russians and ethnic Russians

Its a huge bluff, and a sign of how desperate they are that they are prepared to go down this route, and its a threat they hope will bring Ukraine to the table prepared to give up something that Russia and Putin can spin as a victory
I hope you're right, but we aren't dealing with a full shilling here. It's fairly easy to judge what a sane man would do, but Putin backed into a corner is likely to do anything. I doubt even fall out on Russia would deter him, which is why we need to hope it deters his Generals.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by SammyBoy » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:54 am

I've always felt that the reassuring doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction unfortunately relies on all parties being in their right mind. Lets hope there are enough people with clout on the Russian side that aren't complete empty heads. I think the poster further up had it right, he's either President or nothing, which is quite worrying.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:04 am

SammyBoy wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:54 am
I've always felt that the reassuring doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction unfortunately relies on all parties being in their right mind. Lets hope there are enough people with clout on the Russian side that aren't complete empty heads. I think the poster further up had it right, he's either President or nothing, which is quite worrying.
He's in his right mind

He's knows that if he launches a nuclear weapon (btw, Soviet military doctrine (and therefore you assume Russian) would have allowed the launch of tactical nuclear weapons to seal the breach in the lines at Kupyansk) then its a completely different situation, one of which for him and Russia there is no going back from.

Its a bluff, and its a bluff that relies on everyone assuming that he's lost the plot and actually will launch

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:10 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Goalposts » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:17 am

A good analysis on the threat of nuke usage - very balanced
https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nucle ... tter&sd=pf

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:22 am

Lawrence Freedman: This valuable thread by @ChrisO_wiki captures what seems to me to be the most important immediate consequence of today's announcements. The fact that those already contracted are stuck at the front indefinitely will have a dire effect on their morale and disciple.


https://twitter.com/lawdavf/status/1572 ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:24 am

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Reuters: Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin's address.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin's morning address on Sept. 21, in which he ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists, one-way flights out of Russia started to sell out quickly, Reuters reports.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:26 am

NEXTA: Mobilisation begins in Russia

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/157 ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Boss Hogg » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:26 am

Wonder what it will take for generals to refuse orders and a military coup to happen ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:30 am

Boss Hogg wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:26 am
Wonder what it will take for generals to refuse orders and a military coup to happen ?
More than this

If it gets to the stage where Russia start shooting or imprisoning Generals then maybe, but they are just being replaced at the moment

Putin knows where his power lies unfortunately

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:28 pm

REUTERS: Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1572 ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Goalposts » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:46 pm

putin wants to mobilize 300,000 men.

Can he? Yes... but can he:
• equip and train militarily enough ? No.
• winter-cloth them? Possibly
• send them to Ukraine? Yes.
• supply them there? No. Loss of major rail junctions and vulnerability to Himars
• keep them alive during winter? Unlikely

Like all leaders, who ignore logistics, this can only end one way:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:50 pm

Goalposts wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:46 pm
putin wants to mobilize 300,000 men.

Can he? Yes... but can he:
• equip and train militarily enough ? No.
• winter-cloth them? Possibly
• send them to Ukraine? Yes.
• supply them there? No. Loss of major rail junctions and vulnerability to Himars
• keep them alive during winter? Unlikely

Like all leaders, who ignore logistics, this can only end one way:
The railway support (crucial to Russia) for Southern Ukraine is 100% the Kerch Bridge

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:43 pm

Kyiv Independent: Russian media: Armenia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan suspend use of Russian Mir cards.

Vietnam and Kazakhstan have suspended transactions through the Russian payment system Mir, according to Russian state-controlled media Izvestia.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:46 pm

Rob Lee: Each regiment and brigade was supposed to have one conscript battalion (also with officers and contract NCOs), but Russia's manpower issues have been so serious that I assume most of these officers and NCOs were already deployed. Not sure they are still coherent battalions.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1572 ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:48 pm

Defence of Ukraine (Ukraine GMT): The last time russia (the russian empire) announced mobilization was in August, 1914.
We all know how that ended.
Now they are begging for an encore.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/157 ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:50 pm

KYIV INDEPENDENT: According to Ukrainian intelligence, the proxies have also set up a military training camp for prisoners brought from Russia to fight in Ukraine near occupied Torez.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... MORCbXGpJA

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Dark Cloud » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:47 pm

The sham "independence" votes in annexed areas which we are likely to see over the coming days, whilst being almost comical due to everyone knowing what a foregone farce they are, are also very worrying because clearly those occupied areas will then be immediately accepted as part of the Russian family and Putin will claim the high ground in defending Russian allies and territories against "invasion". All utter bobbins of course, but it gives him plenty to spin with on Russian TV to probably the world's most gullible audience.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:54 pm

I know a couple of Russian DJ's who used to travel the world, they aren't on board with Putin and many aren't.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:06 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:54 pm
I know a couple of Russian DJ's who used to travel the world, they aren't on board with Putin and many aren't.
But how many are willing to take a stand.
I'm not knocking them, it can't be easy, but too many people in Russia are too frightened to stick their heads above the parapets. Even if they don't shout it from the street corner, surely they can talk about it amongst themselves. There is always safety in numbers, the more that voice that concern, the safer it will be. It would also help any potential overthrow, if the usurpers knew they had the people on their side.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Gaia » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:39 pm

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/157 ... WX3tQ&s=19

#Update: Just in - Anti-war protestors in #Moscow in #Russia, are chanting "Putin to the trenches", as Russian police forces arrested dozens of protestors in the city, after president #Putin announced earlier today, he will be sending 300.000 new Russian troops to #Ukraine.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:05 pm

Gaia wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:39 pm
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/157 ... WX3tQ&s=19

#Update: Just in - Anti-war protestors in #Moscow in #Russia, are chanting "Putin to the trenches", as Russian police forces arrested dozens of protestors in the city, after president #Putin announced earlier today, he will be sending 300.000 new Russian troops to #Ukraine.
Let’s hope this and the singer coming out against the war are the cracks beginning to appear. The beginning of the end.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:36 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:43 pm

https://twitter.com/i/status/1572645894968987648
Protests in St Petersberg, these brave young people are the future of Russia, not some senile old fart yearning for the days of empire. The West should offer these brave young people hope with promises to withdraw sanctions when Putin and his cronies are either dead or in prison.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:53 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Gaia » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:27 pm

When you compare the Russian protests to the ones in Iran they are really tame, and they use live ammunition against protesters in Iran.

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/157 ... XoeSA&s=19
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:26 am

Gaia wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:27 pm
When you compare the Russian protests to the ones in Iran they are really tame, and they use live ammunition against protesters in Iran.

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/157 ... XoeSA&s=19
Yup, has to be put into context just how insignificant they are sadly

The key will be how successful they are at actually mobilising people, and how many people draft dodge

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:53 am

China will be watching, their elite will not want this to happen there, might ease up the Taiwan tensions.
At the moment they are small, but it is a start, there are only so many police and cells.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:03 am

Another one on what Russian mobilisation might or might not be able to do on the battlefield

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/statu ... 6490464256

Read quite a few of these now, and they are all saying the same thing, might allow Russia to keep fighting but won't change the cause of the war

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:06 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:03 am
Another one on what Russian mobilisation might or might not be able to do on the battlefield

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/statu ... 6490464256

Read quite a few of these now, and they are all saying the same thing, might allow Russia to keep fighting but won't change the cause of the war
I think it might change the course of the war but not as Putin intended it.

We’ve seen scores and scores leaving Russia. I know it’s a big and we’ll populated country but you have to assume those leaving are the ones with the means and skills to make a life elsewhere. That will have big economic impact, not to mention the social impact amongst those left.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by CoolClaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:08 am

Saw this, it’s so true - pretty much sums up all the different types of Russia apologists perfectly
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Boss Hogg » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:12 am

Someone has just been on the radio who knows a British teacher who is based in Russia who hasn’t been back to the UK since before the war started. He can’t believe what he is seeing on television here about it. Propaganda is a powerful thing when state controlled as we saw in the 1930s. You’d think in this day and age it would be much more difficult to have a complete blackout on any outside influence.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by NewClaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:14 am

bfcjg wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:53 am
China will be watching, their elite will not want this to happen there, might ease up the Taiwan tensions.
At the moment they are small, but it is a start, there are only so many police and cells.
I think China hold the key to this war. If they publicly denounced Putin now and categorically ruled out support, it’d be over quickly. There’s a great opportunity for China to restore deteriorating ties with the West here, which ultimately is far more important to its future than good relations with Russia. But I also doubt they’d want to stab a BRICS ally in the back.

They are small but in the context of how Russia controls its people and the media, not insignificant I would say. It’s a sign there’s not unanimous support for Putin or the war and unless Putin is stupid he’ll know that’s only going to grow.

If I were a Russian male though, I wouldn’t bother with the protests and would just bail if I could.

fatboy47
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by fatboy47 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:18 am


HahaYeah
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by HahaYeah » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:23 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7QqSYBUhmY

Address by Vladimir Putin Authorizing Partial Mobilization of Russian Armed Forces - ENG Subtitles

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:33 am

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... 6524838915

Ex US NATO C in C on Russian training
This user liked this post: bfcjg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by CoolClaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:39 am

fatboy47 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:18 am
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... premium-uk

One for the pragmatists.
Reads more as appeasement than to be honest - just letting Putin have the Donbas to save face? I think he needs to understand that you can’t just annex territory at will.

Understand the nuclear concern but as other posters earlier commented when someone says ‘this is not a bluff’…. It’s probably a bluff.

Takes some real cajones to call it mind..

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:43 am

fatboy47 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:18 am
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... premium-uk

One for the pragmatists.
The real issue with that argument is that rewards aggression and it just means Russia goes back to rebuilding a stronger army and return to attack again in 5-10 years time.

When do you stop giving in when we all know the goal is to take back most of the EU.

The best solution is to kick the Russians out of Ukraine altogether. Then add them to NATO.
Become energy independent.

Build a very big wall along the border and leave Russia to its self to do its own thing.

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