Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Sun May 21, 2023 1:34 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sun May 21, 2023 12:58 pm
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 5358841857

Biden says that there have been 100,000 Russian casualties in Bakhmut

Its a staggering amount

There just doesn't appear to be a plan to conserve Russian combat power at all, anywhere on the front, and it makes no sense

What are they thinking is going to happen if they lose that amount of troops while the Ukrainians get stronger?
Good points re: RUS combat power , it’s almost impossible to imagine where they get trained troops from , certainly once the private army takes a break . While losses have no doubt been shocking , Biden’s figures should be treated with the same “propaganda %” caution/balance as RUS figures . Though clearly RUS losses have been extremely high ( well Wagners anyway ) I wouldn’t be suprised if another mercenary corps was drafted in en masse .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun May 21, 2023 1:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Sun May 21, 2023 12:58 pm
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 5358841857

Biden says that there have been 100,000 Russian casualties in Bakhmut

Its a staggering amount

There just doesn't appear to be a plan to conserve Russian combat power at all, anywhere on the front, and it makes no sense

What are they thinking is going to happen if they lose that amount of troops while the Ukrainians get stronger?
Are they thinking WW2 style war of attrition?
They've got a large number of fighting age men who they'll (forcefully) conscript, plus they were getting mercenaries from other countries.

The Ukrainians have limited manpower whilst they're 'alone'

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 21, 2023 1:54 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Sun May 21, 2023 1:43 pm
Are they thinking WW2 style war of attrition?
They've got a large number of fighting age men who they'll (forcefully) conscript, plus they were getting mercenaries from other countries.

The Ukrainians have limited manpower whilst they're 'alone'
Russia effectively ran out of men in 1944

And the damage that it did to Russian demographics took decades to sort out (even if they ever did)

And everything I'm reading about the Ukrainian army and its commanders is that they prioritise troops welfare a hell of a lot more than the Russians do

Some great clips in twitter of Ukrainian medivac in action

They isn't any dispute that Russian medical support is severely lacking, especially on the front line and one of the big problems that Russia faces is that it can't admit the high casualties because it would contradict the narrative that they are winning, and because they can't admit them, then they can't have the appropriate medical care in place

If Russia thinks it can win a war of attrition its more than welcome to try, but I'm not sure you will get Ukrainian troops making the same mistakes/decisions that Russian generals are making
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 21, 2023 6:35 pm

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/sta ... 4575346689

Crimea included as part of Ukraine for the purpose of targeting by US equipment

Washington really ramping it up, which you have to assume is because of the pressure from the European allies and the knowledge that if Russia continues with this folly, then only bigger and bigger displays of strength are going to force them to the peace table

Certainly puts Russian communications and transport links with Russia proper in serious trouble (not sure about Sevastopol though, as that has always been Russian/Russian lease base)
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun May 21, 2023 10:25 pm

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... 7026762753

Cool and objective discussion of the limitations of the F-16 (remember it is over 40 years old)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 1:25 am

NEXTA: Explosions were heard in Dnipro, Suspilne news outlet reported at 2:54 a.m. on May 22.

The air raid alert went off in the city at 2:27 a.m.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 1:27 am

OSINT technical - Canadian supplied GCS-200 unmanned multipurpose EOD rotary mine flail in Ukrainian service

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by elwaclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 1:29 am

KYIV INDEPENDENT - Ten months after Russia's assault began, Bakhmut has now been effectively occupied by Russian troops.

Kyiv hasn’t officially confirmed, but it is evident based on both official statements and those made by soldiers on the ground to the Kyiv Independent.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by ecc » Mon May 22, 2023 10:23 am

A Pyrrhic victory if ever there was one.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Boss Hogg » Mon May 22, 2023 10:32 am

A land grab for a pile of rubble. The lives lost for this - what a futile war.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by SalouClaret » Mon May 22, 2023 2:10 pm

Seems to be an uprising in Belogrod. Russians fighting back against their own.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Mon May 22, 2023 2:44 pm

SalouClaret wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 2:10 pm
Seems to be an uprising in Belogrod. Russians fighting back against their own.
Sketchy info but this seems to be the "Freedom of Russia Legion". This is a unit of Russians (some ex Russian military some not) who have been fighting for Ukraine since the invasion in 2022. They've undertaken some military activity around a border post and may've crossed into Belgorod region around Kozinka / Grayvoron. Whatever it is seems to be causing quite a lot of traffic to exit Belgorod as continuing in the Kozinkz - Grayvoron direction would take them to Belgorod. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 7159907331

A bit troublesome for the Russians as so much of their military resources are tied up elsewhere at the moment ;) . I doubt the unit will advance but it should pull in some Russian military resources to make sure they don't.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 3:28 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 2:44 pm
Sketchy info but this seems to be the "Freedom of Russia Legion". This is a unit of Russians (some ex Russian military some not) who have been fighting for Ukraine since the invasion in 2022. They've undertaken some military activity around a border post and may've crossed into Belgorod region around Kozinka / Grayvoron. Whatever it is seems to be causing quite a lot of traffic to exit Belgorod as continuing in the Kozinkz - Grayvoron direction would take them to Belgorod. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 7159907331

A bit troublesome for the Russians as so much of their military resources are tied up elsewhere at the moment ;) . I doubt the unit will advance but it should pull in some Russian military resources to make sure they don't.
First point to make, though it is completely understandable that Ukraine has attacked Russia proper (for very obvious reasons), its not a great move from a propaganda point of view as it gives Russia a free hit to claim all sorts

Second point to make, its probably a very useful probe from a military point of view as Russia will almost certainly have limited troops in the region because of point 1), and if it forces Russia to reallocate defensive units into Russia proper then that is good for any Ukrainian offensive in Ukraine proper

Third point to make, it will drive home to Russians that the war isn't limited to Ukraine, and its hard to estimate which way that will go (personal feelings is that it will make them more likely to back Putin, rather than the other way)

Its not a great development though, and I wish the Ukrainians hadn't done it (even though it would be impossible to argue against their justification for doing it)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 3:31 pm

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1 ... 1068164096

Ukraine denying its anything to do with them, which is stretching credibility a bit it has to be said

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Sammy Bubbly » Mon May 22, 2023 4:56 pm

UK Column News is worth watching today to give a good idea of what is really going off!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Mon May 22, 2023 5:08 pm

Sammy Bubbly wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:56 pm
UK Column News is worth watching today to give a good idea of what is really going off!
While it’s always good to get a balance in a propaganda war , UK Column is one of those con theory nut job sites that thinks the covid jab was to implant chips and or kill us all .
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by CoolClaret » Mon May 22, 2023 6:57 pm

Sammy Bubbly wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 4:56 pm
UK Column News is worth watching today to give a good idea of what is really going off!
Is this yet another BlueLab/PendleBella/Ringo McCartney alt that we have here ?!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 22, 2023 7:08 pm

What is painfully obvious to everyone is that the Russians have essentially left their border with Ukraine undefended, thinking that the Ukrainians would not dare cross it

Now they have, and Russia will have to find troops to at least screen what is a very long border

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Mon May 22, 2023 8:22 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Tue May 23, 2023 7:09 am

This Belograd business is a smart diversion if nothing more . It takes the Bakhmut “ victory “ out of the spotlight while further showing RUS has an almost entirely undefended border section , not to mention a relatively thinly manned 600 mile front , WWII tanks being rolled etc .If it wasn’t for Wagners mercenaries RUS could have well been further humiliated. How long it takes Russia to start knocking out serious new tanks , artillery and fully meet the ammunition needs of its forces will the main factor imo .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by dibraidio » Tue May 23, 2023 10:35 am

AlargeClaret wrote:
Tue May 23, 2023 7:09 am
This Belograd business is a smart diversion if nothing more . It takes the Bakhmut “ victory “ out of the spotlight while further showing RUS has an almost entirely undefended border section , not to mention a relatively thinly manned 600 mile front , WWII tanks being rolled etc .If it wasn’t for Wagners mercenaries RUS could have well been further humiliated. How long it takes Russia to start knocking out serious new tanks , artillery and fully meet the ammunition needs of its forces will the main factor imo .
The Americans have the capacity to build 200 to 300 tanks per year. They know that a war like the one in Ukraine is totally unsustainable because you can lose that many tanks every month. Clearly the Russians have other difficulties too in terms of supplies of the required parts.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 23, 2023 10:45 am

dibraidio wrote:
Tue May 23, 2023 10:35 am
The Americans have the capacity to build 200 to 300 tanks per year. They know that a war like the one in Ukraine is totally unsustainable because you can lose that many tanks every month. Clearly the Russians have other difficulties too in terms of supplies of the required parts.
They do have far more tanks in storage than anyone else (perhaps the Chinese have more) and they are already delving into that

From what I've read, they are giving them KONTOR armor blocks and some new gunsights and then sending them to the front

I doubt there is a single modern Russian tank anywhere but Ukraine, and the troops guarding the other borders will be already on the obsolete equipment

Saying that though, that might be enough to defend with, but the reality is that the counter attacking ability of the Russians to effectively strike a Ukrainian breakthrough is declining all the time and will only head one way

Its astonishing that Russia hasn't made some preliminary peace feelers because it does look from outside that their only chance appears to be either Chinese arms supplies (and a lot of their equipment is no better than what the Russians have in storage) or mass change in the governments of the West (only the US might have this, and for all his rhetoric, if its Trump there is no guarantee that he will follow through on what he is saying at the moment)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue May 23, 2023 11:37 am

Putin will be devastated that his country have woken up this morning with a little bit of it under capture.
On his watch, the first time since 1943 apparently.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 24, 2023 12:52 pm

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/24/russi ... ce-menace/

Longish read on Russian air capabilities and why its not been as effective as everyone in the West imagined it would be
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 24, 2023 4:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 24, 2023 12:52 pm
https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/24/russi ... ce-menace/

Longish read on Russian air capabilities and why its not been as effective as everyone in the West imagined it would be
Thanks for the link!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 25, 2023 2:33 pm

So Russia posted a video showing their intelligence ship fighting off and destroying an Ukrainian unmanned surface attack

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 9891347462

Course, Ukraine have now posted a video showing one of the unmanned boats hit the intelligence ship

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 1520849920

probably not sunk it (or the video from the ship would never have been uploaded) but almost certainly damaged it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 26, 2023 9:37 pm

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1 ... 5004161024

You couldn't make this s**t up if you tried

Ukrainians hit a base in Donetsk with HIMARS but apparently missed it, the Russian TV crews started broadcasting outside the undamaged building, and the Ukrainians hit it this time live on Russian TV

Plenty of chatter suggesting that the Ukrainians didn't realise they'd missed till the TV pics came up and they then corrected their aim
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Fri May 26, 2023 10:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Thu May 25, 2023 2:33 pm
So Russia posted a video showing their intelligence ship fighting off and destroying an Ukrainian unmanned surface attack

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 9891347462

Course, Ukraine have now posted a video showing one of the unmanned boats hit the intelligence ship

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 1520849920

probably not sunk it (or the video from the ship would never have been uploaded) but almost certainly damaged it
I've seen a tweet saying that the ship is being towed back to port, very very slowly

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Fri May 26, 2023 10:37 pm

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... VSPfA&s=19

A growing belief that Russia will be simulating an accident at a nuclear power plant

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 26, 2023 10:39 pm

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 4272502790

This guy is normally pretty accurate, certainly doesn't post unless he's pretty sure

Back in port, with no visible damage
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sat May 27, 2023 9:41 pm


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 2:23 pm

https://twitter.com/EVostox/status/1663769104078221312

Completely O/T, but a good thread on the illegal salvaging of the sunk British Battleship HMS Prince of Wales and Battlecrusier HMS Repulse (both designated war graves)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 31, 2023 4:09 pm

This was an interesting interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcRKBMQkCIw

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by StayingDown4Ever » Wed May 31, 2023 4:40 pm

Could someone give a very brief summary how things are going in the Ukraine at the moment please?

I do read this thread on occasion and there’s often discussions surrounding certain cities being won and lost but it doesn’t really mean too much to me as I don’t really know the implications in the grand scheme of things.

I assume it’s still not even close to being resolved? Any predictions on what may happen over the next few months?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 4:45 pm

StayingDown4Ever wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 4:40 pm
Could someone give a very brief summary how things are going in the Ukraine at the moment please?

I do read this thread on occasion and there’s often discussions surrounding certain cities being won and lost but it doesn’t really mean too much to me as I don’t really know the implications in the grand scheme of things.

I assume it’s still not even close to being resolved? Any predictions on what may happen over the next few months?
Static and no, not going to be resolved quickly

Ukraine might well regain some land, or even all of it, but I'm no longer sure that Russia will stop fighting even if it no longer controls any of Ukraine

Bit depressing, but I think Russia is relying on being able to outlast Western aid

I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen though, if only because the West know full well that would only postpone another, more wider conflict

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Longsider » Wed May 31, 2023 4:51 pm

Comments from the ex Russian Prine minister , stating on the lines of, any British political figure who supports the drone strikes on Moscow will become a legitimate military target. What a Muppet.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by StayingDown4Ever » Wed May 31, 2023 5:00 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 4:45 pm
Static and no, not going to be resolved quickly

Ukraine might well regain some land, or even all of it, but I'm no longer sure that Russia will stop fighting even if it no longer controls any of Ukraine

Bit depressing, but I think Russia is relying on being able to outlast Western aid

I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen though, if only because the West know full well that would only postpone another, more wider conflict
Bloody hell, so it could well last years then?

I thought I read on here a few weeks ago there was a discussion how Putin may be overthrown by his own people which may put an end to matters?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 5:00 pm

Longsider wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 4:51 pm
Comments from the ex Russian Prine minister , stating on the lines of, any British political figure who supports the drone strikes on Moscow will become a legitimate military target. What a Muppet.
All for domestic and Russian ally consumption

And it has to be said, if you are a target that the Russians are actually aiming at, you probably even safer than you would be normally

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 5:02 pm

StayingDown4Ever wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 5:00 pm
Bloody hell, so it could well last years then?

I thought I read on here a few weeks ago there was a discussion how Putin may be overthrown by his own people which may put an end to matters?
I'm not sure that would be a good thing for Putin to be overthrown unfortunately

The people who would likely take over aren't going to be any different and in some cases could well be much worse

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 5:06 pm

Its very depressing either way unfortunately

Best chance though is still a thumping Ukrainian counter attack that really makes Russia realise its lost, and then some sort of face saving deal in which Russia gets something it can sell as a win, and Ukraine gets territorial security

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by StayingDown4Ever » Wed May 31, 2023 5:07 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 5:06 pm
Best chance though is still a thumping Ukrainian counter attack that really makes Russia realise its lost, and then some sort of face saving deal in which Russia gets something it can sell as a win, and Ukraine gets territorial security
Let’s pray for this outcome then.
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 31, 2023 6:55 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 5:02 pm
I'm not sure that would be a good thing for Putin to be overthrown unfortunately

The people who would likely take over aren't going to be any different and in some cases could well be much worse
That's my pet theory, and while I agree that it could make things worse, I still consider it a way that Russia could get out of the war if the Russian leaders, other then Putin of course, want to wash their hands of it and stay out of jail or the cemetery. I think both Ukraine and the West would accept the terms of, Russia pulls back to pre 2014 borders, give back Crimea and hand Putin over for either justice or an autopsy. If things get bad enough in the war, and Putin starts finding sacrificial lambs closer and closer to the top, I can see the Russian Military or other politicians seeing the writing on the wall and sacrificing him before he sacrifices them.

But I totally agree, nothing would be worse for world security then Russia breaking up and there suddenly be 10 or so new nuclear powers ruled by strongmen. All of which likely hate each other and would be likely to go to war trying to increase their territory or 'Reunite' Russia/USSR.

Anyway, we're just a football message board, no one's listening to us, let alone me so it's just an interesting though experiment to me. But there are strong indications that the much vaunted UKR counter offensive is getting close. They seem to be putting the Storm Shadow missiles to good use striking at the rear areas of the part of southern Ukraine that most people think makes the most sense for the counter offensive to hit. My guess is anytime in the next 2 weeks now that the ground has dried out.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Cirrus_Minor » Wed May 31, 2023 7:09 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 5:06 pm
Its very depressing either way unfortunately

Best chance though is still a thumping Ukrainian counter attack that really makes Russia realise its lost, and then some sort of face saving deal in which Russia gets something it can sell as a win, and Ukraine gets territorial security
I think that this is extremely unlikely. According to many 'expert' opinions, the war is likely to continue for years. Putin will probably use his vast population to back fill the casualties, as Stalin did during WW2.

This with the continuous escalation, from both sides, remains a risk to us all.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 7:32 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 7:09 pm
I think that this is extremely unlikely. According to many 'expert' opinions, the war is likely to continue for years. Putin will probably use his vast population to back fill the casualties, as Stalin did during WW2.

This with the continuous escalation, from both sides, remains a risk to us all.
Yup

Course, if Russia isn't defeated here, then that problem of it being a risk to us all remains regardless

And its worth repeating, even if Russia stops now, pays repatriations, goes back to being (or pretending to be) a normal country in the world, its still lost its major export market, its still lost its influence in the Central Asian republics and is relying on China and India buying its resources and not tightening the screws anymore than they are already

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 7:34 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 7:09 pm
I think that this is extremely unlikely. According to many 'expert' opinions, the war is likely to continue for years. Putin will probably use his vast population to back fill the casualties, as Stalin did during WW2.

This with the continuous escalation, from both sides, remains a risk to us all.
Have to mention though that equipment, not troops will be key

Russia can mobilise as many people as it likes, but if it can't train and equip them (and its struggling now) and support them in the battlefield (and its struggling now) then it won't make any difference

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 7:37 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video ... 1685557614

Stuff like this will be given out so that Putin gets the message about how he survives after the war is over

Makes perfect sense, though no one deserves to swing more than he does

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by StayingDown4Ever » Wed May 31, 2023 7:37 pm

What are your opinions on his current health situation?

I know you guys aren’t his doctor and don’t have access to his medical records or anything, but you see bits here and there about how he’s physically (and more than likely mentally) struggling. There were all those videos of his hand shaking a few months ago wasn’t there?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 31, 2023 7:48 pm

StayingDown4Ever wrote:
Wed May 31, 2023 7:37 pm
What are your opinions on his current health situation?

I know you guys aren’t his doctor and don’t have access to his medical records or anything, but you see bits here and there about how he’s physically (and more than likely mentally) struggling. There were all those videos of his hand shaking a few months ago wasn’t there?
I don't have one to be honest

If he was ill or frail then I think he wouldn't last five minutes before being supplanted though

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:37 am

Must say these so called “ Russian Freedom Fighters”’has been a very smart move from UKR , they seem very well kitted out with both armour and now artillery. It’s very strong propaganda and they’re clearly hoping RUS re-assign troops here from their already relatively thinly populated front line .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by LeadBelly » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:40 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:
Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:37 am
Must say these so called “ Russian Freedom Fighters”’has been a very smart move from UKR , they seem very well kitted out with both armour and now artillery. It’s very strong propaganda and they’re clearly hoping RUS re-assign troops here from their already relatively thinly populated front line .
They seem to have made an incursion towards Belgorod again but from a different direction. Previous action was c 50 miles wsw of that city, now appear to be active less than 20 miles south east of that city around Shebekino. Shebekino buildings seem to have been hit by shells but its not that clear which side is doing the shelling and what/who they are trying to hit.
Some civilians seem to be leaving the area in any case.
https://twitter.com/search?q=Shebekino% ... lick&f=top
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