Russia Invades

[bfcjg]

Whilst I'm not aware of any killings, don't our boys like an inter service fight now and then?

Yes, but killing each other ?

[775claret]

Very interesting thread just popped on Twitter, if this guy has this amount of info and photographic evidence of Russian defensive positions in the Kherson region, so must the Ukrainians and with the mount of precision munitions they have, I would not want to be Russian.

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status ... 2KRtWI73OA

The Alamo?

[Sottpark1 !]

OPEC led by Saudis and Russia, including Qatar agree to cut oil production to keep prices high preserving their revenues.

[KateR]

Here's a map that claims to show how much and what damage a nuke does.

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I put in my location, a town of around 30,000, and selected a one kiloton bomb (the sort of size a tactical nuclear weapon might be), air burst (which seems more damaging then a ground burst).

The result was that the whole town received light blast damage (12.3km2), around one quarter was in the 'radiation radius' (2km2), there were 3,100 deaths and 6,450 injuries. It doesn't say if these are all radiation injuries but it does add that 15% of those survivors in the radiation radius will die.

It seems a rather drastic way to deny the area to the Ukrainians when it could be done with conventional weapons like mines but I suppose desperation and lack of clear thinking which seems to be a feature of the Russians in this war means anything is possible.

Yes it's drastic, but it is becoming drastic in some ways, if you sit down as a group and do the analysis of the state of play and where it's going and what the next few months might bring, need to change the narrative, conscripts might work, how many, being realistic they, must know the difference in willingness to fight on both sides! Then the added narrative, what will the West do, they know Ukraine would if they could but I'm going to assume for now that they don't have tactical nukes at their disposal. So will the West want to retaliate in kind or will they want to ensure no repeat, well yes of course they will, so it's set a couple of TN's off or force/encourage Ukraine to give up territory, go into a ceasefire, draw new borders. It's war games at the basic point for me and if I'm honest putting a Russian cap on it's set off a tactical nuke if putting Putin's cap on but countries have drawn new borders for far less. However, if we look at the rest of group, then the third option arises, we can't let this happen and we need to end the war, therefore Putin has to go, for me it's a definite worry, even though I think sense will prevail, I hope so.

I know quite a few on here say they're not worried but I am, not that me worrying is going to effect anything, I'm just rambling and sharing a thought about possibilities and it's not that far off the realm of possibilities.

[Hipper]

I'm worried too. As someone who grew up in the sixties I used to have almost nightmares of the bomb going off. Although it seems there were times this might have really happened we (I anyway) didn't know about it at the time.

I was thinking lately the enormous stress that Putin must be under. Jokes aside I'm sure he's human and as he has made a monumental cock up it must be affecting his health.

This may interest you:

https://mannerofspeaking.org/2022/02/26 ... mir-putin/

[Lancasterclaret]

Very interesting thread just popped on Twitter, if this guy has this amount of info and photographic evidence of Russian defensive positions in the Kherson region, so must the Ukrainians and with the mount of precision munitions they have, I would not want to be Russian.

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status ... 2KRtWI73OA

Fixed defences like that are ideal for poorly trained troops

[KateR]

This may interest you:

https://mannerofspeaking.org/2022/02/26 ... mir-putin/

Yes interesting and mirrors a lot of my thoughts and beliefs around, what are his ultimate goals, is it just Ukraine or more? Certainly I think it's more and many more countries will be pulled in if he wins in annexing the 4 territories, so it's better to stop it now.

[Colburn_Claret]

Yes it's drastic, but it is becoming drastic in some ways, if you sit down as a group and do the analysis of the state of play and where it's going and what the next few months might bring, need to change the narrative, conscripts might work, how many, being realistic they, must know the difference in willingness to fight on both sides! Then the added narrative, what will the West do, they know Ukraine would if they could but I'm going to assume for now that they don't have tactical nukes at their disposal. So will the West want to retaliate in kind or will they want to ensure no repeat, well yes of course they will, so it's set a couple of TN's off or force/encourage Ukraine to give up territory, go into a ceasefire, draw new borders. It's war games at the basic point for me and if I'm honest putting a Russian cap on it's set off a tactical nuke if putting Putin's cap on but countries have drawn new borders for far less. However, if we look at the rest of group, then the third option arises, we can't let this happen and we need to end the war, therefore Putin has to go, for me it's a definite worry, even though I think sense will prevail, I hope so.

I know quite a few on here say they're not worried but I am, not that me worrying is going to effect anything, I'm just rambling and sharing a thought about possibilities and it's not that far off the realm of possibilities.

I'm not suggesting you want Ukraine to accept new borders, in order to avoid a nuclear conflict, but for anyone who does, it's a crock of ****.
Ukraine had already, reluctantly, conceded Crimea in 2014. It didn't stop him coming back in 2022. Should they accept a new border now, to dispense the fears of people who aren't even Ukrainian, how long before he comes back and claims more of Ukraine, and then more. It should have been resolved in 2014, but it should be obvious to everybody now, that Putin has to lose, for all our sakes. If he wins none of us can ever sleep soundly in our beds again.

[Vegas Claret]

Zero chance Putin wins

[Lowbankclaret]

Fixed defences like that are ideal for poorly trained troops

Saw a video this morning of a shell landing smack in the middle of a trench with Russian soldiers in, didn’t share as it did show dead soldiers. But here is a still of the strike. No good being in a trench when shells can be shot into them very accurately.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1 ... 2KRtWI73OA

[Lancasterclaret]

I don't think Ukraine have ever accepted the Crimea not being Ukrainian Colburn?

As soon as that was occupied, the uprisings began in the east of the country (backed by Russia)

They have never had a chance to do anything about it

[KateR]

I'm not suggesting you want Ukraine to accept new borders, in order to avoid a nuclear conflict, but for anyone who does, it's a crock of ****.
Ukraine had already, reluctantly, conceded Crimea in 2014. It didn't stop him coming back in 2022. Should they accept a new border now, to dispense the fears of people who aren't even Ukrainian, how long before he comes back and claims more of Ukraine, and then more. It should have been resolved in 2014, but it should be obvious to everybody now, that Putin has to lose, for all our sakes. If he wins none of us can ever sleep soundly in our beds again.

I don't disagree with you up to the point of a TN being used, for me it's a game changer and you need to rethink, if you stick with the same decisions then the only way is the West gives Ukraine tactical nukes to use at there choice of place. I think it needs a lot more thought than the analysis we have for a normal war that is being waged at present and thought/question was more aligned to what do you do after he has detonated a TN, options are certainly not a crock of ****. However, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, only to discuss possibilities and options (as I think there will be a lot of small gathering putting exactly the same scenarios together right now) but we can always wait and see (as we must certainly do) then discuss

[Dark Cloud]

Very interesting thread just popped on Twitter, if this guy has this amount of info and photographic evidence of Russian defensive positions in the Kherson region, so must the Ukrainians and with the mount of precision munitions they have, I would not want to be Russian.

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status ... 2KRtWI73OA

It seems remarkably easy for an "interested observer" to get hold of a detailed map and aerial photos of Russian defences and stick it on the Internet where the Ukrainian artillery can simply draw red circles on it to mark exactly where the shells need to land. You'd expect all this stuff to be far more highly secret I feel. And if I was in one of those dug outs I'd definitely be bloody miffed about it.

[Lancasterclaret]

It seems remarkably easy for an "interested observer" to get hold of a detailed map and aerial photos of Russian defences and stick it on the Internet where the Ukrainian artillery can simply draw red circles on it to mark exactly where the shells need to land. You'd expect all this stuff to be far more highly secret I feel. And if I was in one of those dug outs I'd definitely be bloody miffed about it.

You can't hide trenches like that from air/satellite surveillance

Both Ukraine and Russia still use long zig zagged trench lines when it almost certainly better to have individual ones, certainly when the dangers are artillery and from the air

[Lowbankclaret]

You can't hide trenches like that from air/satellite surveillance

Both Ukraine and Russia still use long zig zagged trench lines when it almost certainly better to have individual ones, certainly when the dangers are artillery and from the air

Honestly the video which the still is taken from shows a drone seeing 6 troops in the trench at one end. The next shot is of a big explosion exactly where they were, that’s the actual still. There is just defence against it. Wheather it’s Excalibur shells or the British MLRS I shared yesterday.
If you combine the satellite images with then flying over a drone . I have a DJI phantom and it gets places really quick with a 2 mile range. You can easily put in gps coordinates and send it straight there, you see troops in the trench, tell the art or MLRS the GPS coordinates and very quickly your getting shelled.

[Colburn_Claret]

I don't think Ukraine have ever accepted the Crimea not being Ukrainian Colburn?

As soon as that was occupied, the uprisings began in the east of the country (backed by Russia)

They have never had a chance to do anything about it

A miswording, I didn't mean they were happy about it, or accepted it, but the lack of a military response certainly contributed to Putin's decision to kick off again.

[Colburn_Claret]

I don't disagree with you up to the point of a TN being used, for me it's a game changer and you need to rethink, if you stick with the same decisions then the only way is the West gives Ukraine tactical nukes to use at there choice of place. I think it needs a lot more thought than the analysis we have for a normal war that is being waged at present and thought/question was more aligned to what do you do after he has detonated a TN, options are certainly not a crock of ****. However, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, only to discuss possibilities and options (as I think there will be a lot of small gathering putting exactly the same scenarios together right now) but we can always wait and see (as we must certainly do) then discuss

I believe Biden has already said that America/NATO will respond in kind.
I don't envisage that means going OTT, with a reaction, just like for like.
Once Putin understands that his bluff has been called, then it's up to him and those around him, whether they want to die or not. I'm not an idiot, there will be consequences for us as well, but Russia will be finished. Even he has to know that in this he cannot win.
The inaccuracy, and incompetence of the Russian military means there is every likelihood that many of there ballistic missiles could be as useless as their Army.
The Americans were talking 20 years ago of 'Star Wars' technology to shoot down these weapons on route. I don't know whether they ever achieved it, but if they did, they wouldn't be bragging about it would they.

[Lancasterclaret]

Extraordinary footage

Ukrainian tank catches a BM-27 Urugan rocket unit and destroys it

The idea that something like that being caught by a tank at point blank range does show just how much is disarray the Russians are

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... 1473586179

[ClaretLoup]

Randy Newman's take on Vladimir Putin from 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wFWR5qCB2k

[Hipper]

It seems remarkably easy for an "interested observer" to get hold of a detailed map and aerial photos of Russian defences and stick it on the Internet where the Ukrainian artillery can simply draw red circles on it to mark exactly where the shells need to land. You'd expect all this stuff to be far more highly secret I feel. And if I was in one of those dug outs I'd definitely be bloody miffed about it.

Check this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63109532

[Hipper]

Randy Newman's take on Vladimir Putin from 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wFWR5qCB2k

...and how to end the war maybe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QbUSjnhv6M

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1578350540441853952

Ukrainian tanks and APCs forming up for an attack

Sounds obvious, but hiding under the trees to avoid detection still a big thing

[ClaretLoup]

...and how to end the war maybe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QbUSjnhv6M

I just hope Pootin holds off until the season is over, it's one of my worst fears passing away before the season ends and not knowing where we finish.

[Lowbankclaret]

A video showing the advantage of night vision optics, for the soldiers and the drone.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... IfWpM9Q0lg

[Vegas Claret]

Extraordinary footage

Ukrainian tank catches a BM-27 Urugan rocket unit and destroys it

The idea that something like that being caught by a tank at point blank range does show just how much is disarray the Russians are

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... 1473586179

that's insane

[Longsider]

Check this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63109532

Love this thread. So much good info.

[bfcjg]

Love this thread. So much good info.

There are some posters on here who are ex military, current and ex engineers/technicians who have worked in the defence industry, specialist military historians, highly skilled people in the energy industry etc etc who have contributed some very insightful and interesting posts on this topic. This thread has been credit to the board as in the main it has been self moderated, kept on topic and is a real source of information.
For what it is worth I picked up my grandchildren from school today and saw happy children,happy parents, grandparents, guardians uncles and aunties etc etc, let's not forget this is replicated in Ukraine and Russia although less happy, the normal peace loving people just want a stable world for their children where we all get along, the likes of Putin cannot destroy their future, incinerate towns,people and children because of what ?his desire to draw a new line on a map , I hope the Russian people and decent members of their hierarchy do the decent thing and send him to hell where he belongs.

[welsbyswife]

Good to see you've calmed down a bit bfcjg, you were up for nuking em yesterday . Few glasses of red and things have mellowed!

[bfcjg]

I actually said let's seriously threaten them and hope the Russian people would rise up against him.

[NewClaret]

There are some posters on here who are ex military, current and ex engineers/technicians who have worked in the defence industry, specialist military historians, highly skilled people in the energy industry etc etc who have contributed some very insightful and interesting posts on this topic. This thread has been credit to the board as in the main it has been self moderated, kept on topic and is a real source of information.
For what it is worth I picked up my grandchildren from school today and saw happy children,happy parents, grandparents, guardians uncles and aunties etc etc, let's not forget this is replicated in Ukraine and Russia although less happy, the normal peace loving people just want a stable world for their children where we all get along, the likes of Putin cannot destroy their future, incinerate towns,people and children because of what ?his desire to draw a new line on a map , I hope the Russian people and decent members of their hierarchy do the decent thing and send him to hell where he belongs.

Brilliant post

[Lowbankclaret]

There are some posters on here who are ex military, current and ex engineers/technicians who have worked in the defence industry, specialist military historians, highly skilled people in the energy industry etc etc who have contributed some very insightful and interesting posts on this topic. This thread has been credit to the board as in the main it has been self moderated, kept on topic and is a real source of information.
For what it is worth I picked up my grandchildren from school today and saw happy children,happy parents, grandparents, guardians uncles and aunties etc etc, let's not forget this is replicated in Ukraine and Russia although less happy, the normal peace loving people just want a stable world for their children where we all get along, the likes of Putin cannot destroy their future, incinerate towns,people and children because of what ?his desire to draw a new line on a map , I hope the Russian people and decent members of their hierarchy do the decent thing and send him to hell where he belongs.

To be fair that’s the point, we just want to raise our kids, grand kids etc, whilst imperialist knob heads want to nuke the world. If Russia had spent the billions we gave them on the population they would have a good life, but instead Putin and his oligarchs either spent it on arms or nicked it to buy Chelsea.

[Vegas Claret]

seems the main road and rail bridges linking Crimea to Russia have been hit
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... s0zdP41VcQ

[Bordeauxclaret]

This feels like it could be a big moment.

[Hipper]

seems the main road and rail bridges linking Crimea to Russia have been hit
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... s0zdP41VcQ

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

[Hipper]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... -october-7

The first few paragraphs hint at possible in-fighting within the Russian hierarchy. They sound like a bunch of warlords.

[Hipper]

seems the main road and rail bridges linking Crimea to Russia have been hit
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... s0zdP41VcQ

https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753

[Hipper]

It looks like two explosions and there are two damaged parts to the road. On another thread it suggest an explosion in the air, not on the bridge (a lorry is suggested officially). There is also some ship underneath the bridge at the time of the first explosion but that seems to disappear in subsequent frames - not surprising as it seems a big blast.

[Lowbankclaret]

Oh dear, wonder how they achieved that.

https://twitter.com/oleksiydanilov/stat ... FbVw544g6g

[Lowbankclaret]

The actual explosion, holy cow.

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/stat ... Ve7GxETtYA

[Lowbankclaret]

Close up of the fire.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... Ve7GxETtYA

[NewClaret]

Close up of the fire.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... Ve7GxETtYA

Wowsers! Melted rails.

Assume that’s a fuel train and was deliberately targeted.

[ClaretLoup]

One post on Twitter suggests food rationing is being imposed in Crimea.

However Crimeans/Russkies are panic buying petrol.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578655366958657537

[Colburn_Claret]

Looks like 2 different explosions filmed here.
The Nolan Peterson video, doesn't correspond with the view of the collapsed bridge, or the railway on fire, but if genuine it certainly looks like an explosion from below, and nothing like a truck going off.

It looks like Kadyrov and Progozhin, are lining themselves up to take over from Putin. We do need him gone, but replacing him with either of those 2 would be a disaster. Hopefully they start fighting each other and leave the poor Ukrainians alone.

[Sottpark1 !]

Railway bridge damaged two spans down into the sea after an explosion on a railcar , which then set alight 7 others, .Road Bridge is fine,

[SalouClaret]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... drPiQ&s=19

A boat seems to appear under the bridge at the time of the explosion. Could have been unmanned.

[Rumbletonk]

There are some posters on here who are ex military, current and ex engineers/technicians who have worked in the defence industry, specialist military historians, highly skilled people in the energy industry etc etc who have contributed some very insightful and interesting posts on this topic. This thread has been credit to the board as in the main it has been self moderated, kept on topic and is a real source of information.
For what it is worth I picked up my grandchildren from school today and saw happy children,happy parents, grandparents, guardians uncles and aunties etc etc, let's not forget this is replicated in Ukraine and Russia although less happy, the normal peace loving people just want a stable world for their children where we all get along, the likes of Putin cannot destroy their future, incinerate towns,people and children because of what ?his desire to draw a new line on a map , I hope the Russian people and decent members of their hierarchy do the decent thing and send him to hell where he belongs.

Superb post.

You would like to think in the same situation you would step up and be counted. The people of Ukraine did without question. I'm in awe of their courage. These are tough times and we need to support. I give what I can but Poland is now my favorite country. Best neighbours, ever.

[Colburn_Claret]

The road looks like dual carriage way, only one side has collapsed. Still, better than nothing. Hopefully they can finish the job tonight.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/impact-kerch- ... 04161.html
Guardian's view and the potential wider ramifications.

[Tribesmen]

Wow some pics on here .

[JarrowClaret]

The road looks like dual carriage way, only one side has collapsed. Still, better than nothing. Hopefully they can finish the job tonight.

Interesting that I read the bit that collapsed was the Russia—> Crimea carriageway the Crimea —> Russia part is still intact