Russia Invades

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 5537455104

Aftermath of Ukrainian shells on an Russian ammo/vehicle repair area

[Vegas Claret]

Russian strikes in DNipro
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1548 ... gLl0WChKQQ

[bfcjg]

Evil bstards.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia apparently buying drones from Iran as its unable to source them from its usual suppliers

Iran of course doesn't give one about Western sanctions

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... 1658163094

Massive game of bluff going on here by Russia

Turn off the gas in the hope that the EU will stop supplying Ukraine?

Turn off the gas and watch its own economy implode?

Course, the sensible action would be to withdraw from Ukraine.......

[bfcjg]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-18/
It is to be hoped when all this is over the West remembers who sided with the Russians.

[Top Claret]

Russians selling just as much oil but to the Chinese, Indians and believe it or not the Saudis

[NewClaret]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-18/
It is to be hoped when all this is over the West remembers who sided with the Russians.

This is the next screw the west needs to turn - make India and the UAE make a choice on which side of this they wish to sit.

Wonder what would happen if India in particular started to lose the 1000’s of outsourcing jobs.

For me personally though, I won’t be visiting either country again after this.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russians selling just as much oil but to the Chinese, Indians and believe it or not the Saudis

Well if they are (and I doubt that they are selling it to the Saudis!) then they are selling it a huge discount to make sure they take it, and it costs them more to ship it because of the lack of pipelines (or the limitations of the current pipeline network)

Russia oil and gas is set up for delivery to the West, and if that market is closed, then the Russians have a problem with excess capacity and limited options for getting to alternative markets

[Paul Waine]

Well if they are (and I doubt that they are selling it to the Saudis!) then they are selling it a huge discount to make sure they take it, and it costs them more to ship it because of the lack of pipelines (or the limitations of the current pipeline network)

Russia oil and gas is set up for delivery to the West, and if that market is closed, then the Russians have a problem with excess capacity and limited options for getting to alternative markets

Take a look at the ESPO pipeline. It delivers Russian crude to China. Been operating roughly 10 years.

There's also a gas pipeline, Power of Siberia, operating since 2019 that delivers Russian gas to China. And, plans for another.

Of course, most crude oil and refined products is delivered by sea. Smaller volumes can be shipped by rail. Russia used to deliver a lot of oil by rail in the late 1990s.

[Lancasterclaret]

Take a look at the ESPO pipeline. It delivers Russian crude to China. Been operating roughly 10 years.

There's also a gas pipeline, Power of Siberia, operating since 2019 that delivers Russian gas to China. And, plans for another.

Of course, most crude oil and refined products is delivered by sea. Smaller volumes can be shipped by rail. Russia used to deliver a lot of oil by rail in the late 1990s.

Which is why I said "the limitations of the current pipe lines" mate

Russia is geared towards shipping its gas and oil to Western Europe, and that will take time for them to adjust, as that market is never going to return, certainly in the volumes that it had pre-invasion

India and China are desperate for oil and gas, absolutely no doubt about that, but they will both know that Russia really is struggling for customers and will drive a hard bargain, further pushing up Russian costs

But we know that economic reality isn't going to stop Russia!

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... 8726560768

Build up of Ukrainian troops around Kherson

Its the most obvious place to attack, but also the axis more likely to achieve success as Kherson is on the wrong side of the Dnieper for the Russians to defend

[bfcjg]

Ukraine special forces could do untold damage to these pipelines if Russia keeps damaging infrastructure in Ukraine, such a massive country and a lot of vulnerable points I would assume.

[Paul Waine]

Which is why I said "the limitations of the current pipe lines" mate

Russia is geared towards shipping its gas and oil to Western Europe, and that will take time for them to adjust, as that market is never going to return, certainly in the volumes that it had pre-invasion

India and China are desperate for oil and gas, absolutely no doubt about that, but they will both know that Russia really is struggling for customers and will drive a hard bargain, further pushing up Russian costs

But we know that economic reality isn't going to stop Russia!

The primary reason that "Russia is geared towards shipping its gas and oil to Western Europe"... is that they were originally set up to deliver from Soviet Union to the countries in the Eastern Bloc, including East Germany before the reunification of Germany.

ESPO crude oil prices by reference to Brent and Dubai, taking into account demand for the end refined products, plus the logistics of the destination. An aframax cargo (approx 750,000 bbls) of ESPO was shipped to UAE by Vitol in June - reported by Bloomberg (or Refinitiv). That cargo will be the exception.

[Hipper]

Kherson situation is interesting.

It fell early in the war and in the last few days there have been suggestions of treason. Perhaps earlier Ukrainian efforts to attack Kherson have also been hampered and now they perhaps have the intelligence aspect sorted they are in a position to move forward.

[Lancasterclaret]

Kherson situation is interesting.

It fell early in the war and in the last few days there have been suggestions of treason. Perhaps earlier Ukrainian efforts to attack Kherson have also been hampered and now they perhaps have the intelligence aspect sorted they are in a position to move forward.

Could be

Its blatantly obvious the easiest target for Ukraine to attack, which does rather suggest that the Russians know that too, but they have to have more forces in the Donbass to achieve their aims

Thing is, assuming Ukraine take it, they are not going to be able to cross the Dnieper I'd have thought

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: EU to add Sberbank, Russian metals baron to sanctions list

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1549 ... 4SQ6p_Cp3A

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/ ... 6966009858

Interesting to see how the diplomatic tables have turned

Erdogan making Putin wait and Putin face saying it all

[Lancasterclaret]

Which is why I said "the limitations of the current pipe lines" mate

Russia is geared towards shipping its gas and oil to Western Europe, and that will take time for them to adjust, as that market is never going to return, certainly in the volumes that it had pre-invasion

India and China are desperate for oil and gas, absolutely no doubt about that, but they will both know that Russia really is struggling for customers and will drive a hard bargain, further pushing up Russian costs

But we know that economic reality isn't going to stop Russia!

One pipeline serves Russia to China from the Eastern Siberian fields, with another one being constructed (not sure how advanced it is, or if its even started) from the Western Siberian fields

Compare that to the amount that service Europe and Russia has a looming problem

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-02-04/

Crucially, the pipelines that service Europe and the pipeline that services China are not linked, so a lot of work still to be done

*this is just gas, I don't know the situation regarding oil but I'm sure a bit of googling will help with that!

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/statu ... 0877753344

First training Abraham tanks for the Polish Army have arrived in Poland

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 8545355776

2nd day in a row that the main road bridge that connects Kherson to the other side of the Dnieper has been hit by Ukrainian fire

Once that goes, becomes increasingly hard to supply, reinforce or withdraw units from that front

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-fight ... 23818.html
Nice to see.

[LeadBelly]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-fight ... 23818.html
Nice to see.

A few sources are saying that the Russians shot this down themselves - an expensive bit of "friendly fire".

[Lancasterclaret]

A few sources are saying that the Russians shot this down themselves - an expensive bit of "friendly fire".

Pretty much confirmed now

Shows the danger of using less modern equipment, as the IFF systems are not up to scratch and these things happen

[NewClaret]

Pretty much confirmed now

Shows the danger of using less modern equipment, as the IFF systems are not up to scratch and these things happen

So their own air defences shot their own plane down?

[Lancasterclaret]

So their own air defences shot their own plane down?

Yeah

They are clearly desperate to stop the HIMARS precision strikes on their infrastructure (pic online of a Russian anti-air radar system 100km behind the lines taken out by a very accurate strike for example)

Only guessing here, but I think the Russians decided to try to bring down the rockets with everything that might hit it, and they took out there own Su-34 (which was not expecting to be attacked that far behind the lines and was consequently far too high for avoiding SAMs)

[LeadBelly]

The radar system taken out in the last few days looks like quite a modern sophisticated piece and was hit together with its supporting equipment (command vehicle and electricity generator). It's quite a way south of Kherson in Lazurne, right on the Black Sea coast and (presumably) is used for spotting anything incoming low across the sea as well as maybe looking northwards towards Kherson. The site is 80+ km from even the front of Ukraine held territory!. Ive seen a report that there were two outgoing rockets from the vicinity prior to this detection equipment being hit by two incoming. Presumably the incomings were too fast for the detection/counter missiles to cope?

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/st ... 02/photo/1

[Lancasterclaret]

The radar system taken out in the last few days looks like quite a modern sophisticated piece and was hit together with its supporting equipment (command vehicle and electricity generator). It's quite a way south of Kherson in Lazurne, right on the Black Sea coast and (presumably) is used for spotting anything incoming low across the sea as well as maybe looking northwards towards Kherson. The site is 80+ km from even the front of Ukraine held territory!. Ive seen a report that there were two outgoing rockets from the vicinity prior to this detection equipment being hit by two incoming. Presumably the incomings were too fast for the detection/counter missiles to cope?

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/st ... 02/photo/1

Or they detected them miles out, and there was absolutely nothing that they could do

Quite a bit of the Russians expecting the S-400 to be able to shoot down the HIMARS and finding out that they can't has come as a huge shock

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62231936

Russians clearly very spooked by the effect of the increase in Ukrainian fire power

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/15 ... 1687174145

Another Russian ammo dump goes bang, probably yesterday

[IanMcL]

Come on Ukraine!

[A.Claret.Fan]

How would you compare this war with a football match?

Russia 3-2 Ukraine at 40 minutes gone...

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee (retweet): Lavrov gives the biggest official signal yet that Russia is planning to annex southern Ukraine.

"Now the geography has changed. It's not just Donetsk and Luhansk, it's Kherson, Zaporizhia, and several other territories. And this is an ongoing process, consistent and insistent."

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1549 ... TYT1z78teQ

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee (retweet): For sure there are higher priority targets for HIMARS at the moment but maybe for later - one of the many packed repair workshops in the DPR + LPR.
Two films of same workshop rammed with tanks and 2S3, 2S19 and a rare 2S7 and 2S5.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1549 ... TYT1z78teQ

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent: Official: Russian tank fires on Ukrainian combines in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

According to Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration, a Russian tank fired at two Ukrainian combines harvesting grain near the village of Koshove.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... TYT1z78teQ

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee: Video of artillery strikes by Ukraine's 10th Mountain Assault Brigade on Russian soldiers.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1549 ... TYT1z78teQ

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/21 ... to-germany

Russia resumes gas supplies to Europe

They have clearly decided that crashing their entire economy isn't worth causing a deep recession in Europe

[Top Claret]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/21 ... to-germany

Russia resumes gas supplies to Europe

They have clearly decided that crashing their entire economy isn't worth causing a deep recession in Europe

The EU they have more than likely done a deal with the Russians which will be to the detriment of the Ukrainian.

[Lancasterclaret]

The EU they have more than likely done a deal with the Russians which will be to the detriment of the Ukrainian.

Unlikely, as the biggest Ukrainian supporters are in the EU

[Lancasterclaret]

Unlikely, as the biggest Ukrainian supporters are in the EU

Technically, some of the biggest supporters of Ukraine are in the EU, not the biggest (which is the US)

[LeadBelly]

RE which countries are more/less supporting Ukraine militarily: there's a fairly recent NYT article on this subject. I'm not generally much of a fan of the NYT but this article makes some decent points and has some detail on what countries have promised/actually supplied and why there are differences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/worl ... plies.html

"For Pierre Vimont, a former French ambassador to Washington and former senior E.U. official, European countries are divided into three rough camps.

There are those like Britain, Poland and the Baltics looking to isolate Mr. Putin and the Russians, too, for being complicit in the war; those like Belgium, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands revisiting the idea of Cold War containment, talking of constraints; and those countries, like France, Germany, Hungary and Italy, “who hope at some point for an opportunity to launch a new dialogue with Russia, not immediately, but to be ready.”

[Lancasterclaret]

RE which countries are more/less supporting Ukraine militarily: there's a fairly recent NYT article on this subject. I'm not generally much of a fan of the NYT but this article makes some decent points and has some detail on what countries have promised/actually supplied and why there are differences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/worl ... plies.html

"For Pierre Vimont, a former French ambassador to Washington and former senior E.U. official, European countries are divided into three rough camps.

There are those like Britain, Poland and the Baltics looking to isolate Mr. Putin and the Russians, too, for being complicit in the war; those like Belgium, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands revisiting the idea of Cold War containment, talking of constraints; and those countries, like France, Germany, Hungary and Italy, “who hope at some point for an opportunity to launch a new dialogue with Russia, not immediately, but to be ready.”

There are certainly differences in what level of support each nation wishes to give (they can make their own decision on stuff like this, who knew eh? ) but all of them have given military aid to Ukraine (apart from Hungary)

Germany in particular has promised a fair bit, but is still struggling to actually send it (for reasons that have already been mentioned on this thread, but again, we are talking about a country changing its entire mindset of its existence in a couple of months, and that takes time)

Worth mentioning again that Russia can plunge the West into recession by withholding oil and gas supplies, but only at the cost of absolutely destroying their own economy, and its a risk that Putin is not going to take

[Lowbankclaret]

There are certainly differences in what level of support each nation wishes to give (they can make their own decision on stuff like this, who knew eh? ) but all of them have given military aid to Ukraine (apart from Hungary)

Germany in particular has promised a fair bit, but is still struggling to actually send it (for reasons that have already been mentioned on this thread, but again, we are talking about a country changing its entire mindset of its existence in a couple of months, and that takes time)

Worth mentioning again that Russia can plunge the West into recession by withholding oil and gas supplies, but only at the cost of absolutely destroying their own economy, and its a risk that Putin is not going to take

I have read that the gas is flowing again in Nordstream 1 but at a reduced level. The refurbished turbine has still not been received by Russia. It claims it cannot get the pipeline up to full capacity without it.

[Lancasterclaret]

I have read that the gas is flowing again in Nordstream 1 but at a reduced level. The refurbished turbine has still not been received by Russia. It claims it cannot get the pipeline up to full capacity without it.

I think its 30% capacity, which is the agreed amount between Gazprom and the EU (I think that is from an NYT article as well)

Its not peak period, and the EU have a fairly comprehensive plan (which of course will require everyone to stick to! (not guaranteed) to deal with potential shortages this winter

[elwaclaret]

OSINTtechnical: Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces track and then destroy a Russian MT-LB


https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... pgVz0bpjxg

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent: Intelligence: Russia has used up to 60% of its missile stock since Feb. 24.

According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate, Russia most often used Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles, and also the Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... pgVz0bpjxg

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrien : Looks like the Johnson is basically giving Ukraine almost everything he can, maybe worried that @Dominic2306 the great Putin apologist will have influence if Sunak wins?

+ over 20 M109 155 mm howitzers
+ 36 L119 105mm artillery guns
+ 1,600 anti-tank weapons
+ counter-battery radar systems
+ over 50,000 rounds of ammunition
+ hundreds of drones
+ hundreds of loitering aerial munitions
All coming from the United Kingdom.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... pgVz0bpjxg

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS WORLD: EUROPEAN NEWS - Italy PM resigns:

Mario Draghi resigns, plunging Italy into political turmoil

https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status ... pgVz0bpjxg

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Another video from Kharkiv.
The occupiers' missiles again "accurately hit the military base"
This time the base was a public transport stop, a market and shops.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/155 ... pgVz0bpjxg

[elwaclaret]

THE WEEK (UK): Putin threatens to deploy Russia's latest intercontinental ballistic missiles by the end of the year

https://twitter.com/theweekuk/status/15 ... pgVz0bpjxg