Russia Invades

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:30 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:35 pm
https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1555 ... iaNkA&s=19

Amnesty international are unhappy with Ukraine.
This hasn't aged well for Amnesty

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:59 am

Not sure what the feeling in the UK is.

Ukraine hasn't been a lead story on the Australian news for months now. I'm sure that, the "Man on the street" is far less inclined to having his tax Dollar spent on support for Ukraine than he was three months ago.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:18 am

shanghaiclaret wrote:
Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:59 am
Not sure what the feeling in the UK is.

Ukraine hasn't been a lead story on the Australian news for months now. I'm sure that, the "Man on the street" is far less inclined to having his tax Dollar spent on support for Ukraine than he was three months ago.
I don't think so.
It's been the muddy season, both sides would struggle to move. The only engagement, bar Bakhmut, is long range Russian missiles.
Ukraine have also been using the time to stockpile all the new toys, and get their men trained to use them.
The big counter offensive is about to start, but I'd rather they stopped talking about it. Secrecy is the best chance of success, also the first 24 hours. IF they can break the lines, they could quickly be rolling the battle lines back a 100km.
When there is news, people will be wanting to know, and I can't see anything dampening the support of the British, or Australian commitment

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Apr 30, 2023 10:19 am

shanghaiclaret wrote:
Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:59 am
Not sure what the feeling in the UK is.

Ukraine hasn't been a lead story on the Australian news for months now. I'm sure that, the "Man on the street" is far less inclined to having his tax Dollar spent on support for Ukraine than he was three months ago.
I think most people get that spending their tax dollars now (I disagree with that as well, but its hard to put it down on why that is so I'll leave it) might mean that we won't have to spend them in the future on increased defence spending

Personally I think with the way the world is changing that we are going to have to spend more on defence, but that is something that not everyone agrees with, or has such a pessimistic view of the future

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Apr 30, 2023 10:37 am

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 4837629959

Ukrainian troops clearing a trench from a very unusual enemy

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Sun Apr 30, 2023 11:07 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/stop-deceivin ... 20062.html
Will he be the next one to accidentally fall out of a window ?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Mon May 01, 2023 5:29 am

Over the week-end, the Australian PM, Albanese, has refused Zelensky's requests for aid, twice.

Looks like we have tapped out.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Billy Balfour » Mon May 01, 2023 3:23 pm

Another humiliating defeat for Russia at the United Nations: the General Assembly has overwhelmingly backed a resolution referencing Russian aggression against Ukraine and Georgia, with 122 votes in favor and just 5 against. Even China, Hungary, and Armenia backed the resolution

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/sta ... 56584?s=20

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by No Ney Never » Mon May 01, 2023 5:31 pm

It is quite a long way from Australia, maybe they feel a bit detached. Where will Australia expect to receive support from when China begin flexing their muscles?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon May 01, 2023 5:38 pm

Interestingly, Australia has probably the aircraft in reserve that would help Ukraine (F-18 Hornets)

Course, they have given 155mm artillery, and quite a few of various types of APCs

In other news, the South Africans (who according to the pro-Russian trolls are amongst Russia's biggest supporters) have apparently told Putin not to come to SA for the Brics summit, as they'd have to arrest him if he lands

I'm pretty sure that their support will remain vocal but not in any actual meaningful way

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 3:18 am

No Ney Never wrote:
Mon May 01, 2023 5:31 pm
It is quite a long way from Australia, maybe they feel a bit detached. Where will Australia expect to receive support from when China begin flexing their muscles?
China has been flexing its muscles for at least the last ten years.

Australia would look initially to AUKUS for support.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 7:36 am

shanghaiclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 3:18 am
China has been flexing its muscles for at least the last ten years.

Australia would look initially to AUKUS for support.
I think Australia has fairly strong ties with the countries between it and China

I've certainly seen stuff on joint naval exercises with Indonesia, and I was reading something yesterday that Australian SSNs (when they are built) will be allowed to use Singapore (US ones are already allowed to use it)

The US is certainly beefing up its diplomacy in the region as well, and its helped by genuine worries from any country that borders China

You aren't at Cold War levels of US support yet (no huge naval base/air bases) and Guam is still the nearest "big" US base but you do wonder how much longer that will continue

Bit off topic though!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 10:08 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401

In what can best be described as "not a shock", it turns out that Russian ships with the equipment to blow up underwater pipelines were around the Nord stream 2 when they exploded

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 10:08 am

Lancaster

You would be surprised how many US military personnel are based in Australia.

I would be expecting support from the four US airbases in the Phillipines before Guam.

Australia conducts joint exercises regularly with all of our Western orientated neighbours.

Ukraine has been a great opportunity for everyone to re-evaluate their military options.

I believe that the Aussies are heading in the right direction.We are spending big time in: submarines, missiles and cyberspace.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 10:35 am

shanghaiclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 10:08 am
Lancaster

You would be surprised how many US military personnel are based in Australia.

I would be expecting support from the four US airbases in the Phillipines before Guam.

Australia conducts joint exercises regularly with all of our Western orientated neighbours.

Ukraine has been a great opportunity for everyone to re-evaluate their military options.

I believe that the Aussies are heading in the right direction.We are spending big time in: submarines, missiles and cyberspace.
I wouldn't be to be honest! (and aren't the US bases currently Philippino but due massive upgrades to make them more useable for the US. They certainly haven't got anything like Clark Field/Suva Bay was during the cold war)

Its another scenario (like Ukraine) where the WWII experience, operational and strategic issues are essentially the same

Thing is, the Chinese are building a navy to challenge the US

I'm sceptical that they are ever going to be able to match USN carrier experience and know how, but they can certainly cause issues for the smaller nations

And as you have mentioned, the Aussies are not the only country who are suddenly realising that they have to take care of their own defence as well as having strong alliances with the US

Might catch on over here!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed May 03, 2023 10:54 am

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... I3qhQ&s=19

Will be worth seeing how accurate this turns out to be

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 10:59 am

The Japanese have woken up ftom theur slumber and commited to massive spending over the next decade on their military.

The Chinese have a numerical advantage over the US navy already.
In terms of technology they are way behind in terms of aircraft, carrier and submarine technology.
I am very concerned that those US carriers groups would be totally overwhelmed with swarms of drones, missiles and planes.

My personal thoughts are that China needs to be striking in the very near future. Their window of opportunity will close in a couple of years.

As my username suggests, I have spent a fair bit of time in China. I'm married to one of them. I think that I have a little bit of inside on what is happening.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by shanghaiclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 11:02 am

Sorry to hijack the thread. I wont post anymore about China on here.

If anyone wants to discuss it, start a new thread or contact me directly.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed May 03, 2023 11:19 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 10:08 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401

In what can best be described as "not a shock", it turns out that Russian ships with the equipment to blow up underwater pipelines were around the Nord stream 2 when they exploded
The only issue I have with this is 'why?' They have control as to what goes into the pipes. Why would it be in Russian interests to destroy them? Spite? Some sort of lesson to show what they can do? Security perhaps (maybe we could send something naughty to Russia in the pipes)?
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 11:23 am

Hipper wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 11:19 am
The only issue I have with this is 'why?' They have control as to what goes into the pipes. Why would it be in Russian interests to destroy them? Spite? Some sort of lesson to show what they can do? Security perhaps (maybe we could send something naughty to Russia in the pipes)?
It was the timing

They wanted (and believed) that Western Europe would freeze without their gas

Plus they know there are plenty of people in the West more than happy to believe that it was some sort of NATO operation to hurt Russia

I would suggest that like their plans for the invasion of Ukraine, the reality is what they thought they had (Western Europe being unable to survive without Russian gas) turned out to not be the case

That first winter was key as well, the systems put in place by the West (more renewables, more imports of gas from US/Middle East) means that it won't be possible to do this next winter (though a long, harsh winter might cause issues)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by JarrowClaret » Wed May 03, 2023 11:29 am

Also not relevant to the Ukraine war but I have been following this guy’s fascinating insights into the Falklands war. For those that are interested in things like this it is well worth a catch up on his posts:
https://twitter.com/rdphistory/status/1 ... CA2SO0u6vg
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 11:36 am

JarrowClaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 11:29 am
Also not relevant to the Ukraine war but I have been following this guy’s fascinating insights into the Falklands war. For those that are interested in things like this it is well worth a catch up on his posts:
https://twitter.com/rdphistory/status/1 ... CA2SO0u6vg
I follow a few like that for WWII

The RN Ship losses one is a good one as well (though I think he's getting discouraged by the twitter changes)

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Wed May 03, 2023 11:46 am

If I recall at the time no gas was being transported by these pipes so all the damage would do was prevent the Germans/Europeans from arranging with Russia to turn them on again.

In other words, there was now less chance of Europeans coming to some gas arrangement with Russia (under pressure from citizens struggling in a cold winter) so therefore less likelihood of Europe weakening their position regarding supporting Ukraine.

To me, if the Russians did it, it looks like an own goal, especially as the Norwegian pipelines already exist and a new one to Poland was opened at that time.

Of course it might have been a way of warning the Europeans that they can attack any pipeline, but surely if the did this to a Norwegian-Polish pipe that becomes an act of war and takes things to another level, if we respond appropriately,
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 11:52 am

Hipper wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 11:46 am
If I recall at the time no gas was being transported by these pipes so all the damage would do was prevent the Germans/Europeans from arranging with Russia to turn them on again.

In other words, there was now less chance of Europeans coming to some gas arrangement with Russia (under pressure from citizens struggling in a cold winter) so therefore less likelihood of Europe weakening their position regarding supporting Ukraine.

To me, if the Russians did it, it looks like an own goal, especially as the Norwegian pipelines already exist and a new one to Poland was opened at that time.

Of course it might have been a way of warning the Europeans that they can attack any pipeline, but surely if the did this to a Norwegian-Polish pipe that becomes an act of war and takes things to another level, if we respond appropriately,
The thing is that blowing up a pipeline requires expertise and tech to make it feasible

Motive wise, you have the Russians or the Ukrainians (or if you are a believer of conspiracy theories, some sort of NATO shadow group operating outside of the chain of command)

Ukraine have the motive (well, sort of) but they don't have the expertise to do it or the equipment to do it

Russia has the motive, the equipment, the know how, and have been surveying and mapping EU/NATO undersea structures for at least the past three years

Now we have the Russian ships that are equipped with this sort of tech in the right area at the right time

The evidence does rather suggest that the Russians did it

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 2:15 pm

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 8075142150

This looks a bit sus to put it mildly

Course, Russia have put out a press release accusing Ukraine of attacking Putin directly

Possibly domestic justification for something even more horrendous or cancelling of the May parades?

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vino blanco » Wed May 03, 2023 2:23 pm

If Russia have put this out, then I would assume it is totally suspect. They know a counter offensive is coming, which will damage them massively, perhaps they are building up the Russian public to accept bad news.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed May 03, 2023 2:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:15 pm
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 8075142150

This looks a bit sus to put it mildly

Course, Russia have put out a press release accusing Ukraine of attacking Putin directly

Possibly domestic justification for something even more horrendous or cancelling of the May parades?

What are they claiming Ukraine fired at them, looks like a firework out of a £10 box

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 2:34 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:27 pm
What are they claiming Ukraine fired at them, looks like a firework out of a £10 box
Two drones

The, er, "explosion" is because its been shot down by the air defences

But there isn't any sound of aa fire, or a missile launch, or even tracers

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed May 03, 2023 2:35 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:34 pm
Two drones

The, er, "explosion" is because its been shot down by the air defences

But there isn't any sound of aa fire, or a missile launch, or even tracers
Fair do's, maybe they tied a catherine wheel to the rocket as well then

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 2:37 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:35 pm
Fair do's, maybe they tied a catherine wheel to the rocket as well then
I think we are about six months away from *that* level of Russian military equipment!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed May 03, 2023 2:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:37 pm
I think we are about six months away from *that* level of Russian military equipment!
Good I have a 3 tonne box of devil bangers I am willing to arm Putin with

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 2:45 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:41 pm
Good I have a 3 tonne box of devil bangers I am willing to arm Putin with
You'll get arrested for breaking sanctions

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed May 03, 2023 2:56 pm

Australia and the USA have very strong ties, there are a few OZ in the US at the moment doing exercises and we have them here in Vegas every single year for a Red Flag exercise, they were here the early part of this year with the RAF

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Wed May 03, 2023 3:17 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
Wed May 03, 2023 2:15 pm
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 8075142150

This looks a bit sus to put it mildly

Course, Russia have put out a press release accusing Ukraine of attacking Putin directly

Possibly domestic justification for something even more horrendous or cancelling of the May parades?
Pretty handy they had a cameraman focused right on the explosion at 3 AM.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed May 03, 2023 4:10 pm

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 8293336064

Even handier they had a couple of folks on the roof just in case something went wrong

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Thu May 04, 2023 12:58 am

the most blatant false flag op I've ever seen, that's embarrassing

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Elbarad » Thu May 04, 2023 1:20 am

It even involved a flag. That’s going all out.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Thu May 04, 2023 1:35 am

Elbarad wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 1:20 am
It even involved a flag. That’s going all out.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu May 04, 2023 10:23 am

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 1141220365

This is very good

The shot of the two blokes on top of the Kremlin is from the 2nd drone, and its perfectly possible that they were up there looking to see if there was any damage from the 1st drone

Point being made is that there is no way that two drones should have been able to penetrate Moscows air defences, and its pretty embarrassing if its not a false flag

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 05, 2023 2:22 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/wagner-boss-y ... 59514.html
He either sees a weakness with Putin and wants to exploit it,or its a rant prior to him after getting prior knowledge of him mysteriously falling out of a window.

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri May 05, 2023 2:54 pm

Elbarad wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 1:20 am
It even involved a flag. That’s going all out.
PULL! It reminds me of a clay ( pigeon) being released ,there’s almost a catapult clatter as it flies past

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AlargeClaret » Fri May 05, 2023 3:01 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 2:22 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/wagner-boss-y ... 59514.html
He either sees a weakness with Putin and wants to exploit it,or its a rant prior to him after getting prior knowledge of him mysteriously falling out of a window.
Looks pretty realistic tbf , while there’s always smoke and mirrors and propaganda feints on both sides , he clearly looks to be raging . It would be beyond quite something if Wagner decided to fully retreat . Seems RUS are still having major production issues .

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 05, 2023 4:05 pm

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Vegas Claret » Sat May 06, 2023 2:28 am


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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Taffy on the wing » Sat May 06, 2023 3:32 am

Disgusting!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by AfloatinClaret » Sat May 06, 2023 6:41 am

bfcjg wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 2:22 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/wagner-boss-y ... 59514.html
He either sees a weakness with Putin and wants to exploit it,or its a rant prior to him after getting prior knowledge of him mysteriously falling out of a window.
Or perhaps as 'mercenaries' NATO/The west have decided that it's cheaper in both lives and financially to make him and his cronies a better long term offer than Putin can; when the end game is reached, delivering Prigozhin to the Hague might be considered a peace offering by the Russians

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat May 06, 2023 9:10 am

bfcjg wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 4:05 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/ukraine-shoo ... 11825.html
Interesting if true.
What's the tip of that missile made of. It looks like concrete!

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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Hipper » Sat May 06, 2023 9:14 am

Wagner Group boss says he will pull fighters out of Bakhmut on 10th May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Presumably this is just part of his war of words with the Russian military.

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat May 06, 2023 11:57 am

https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/stat ... 2075776002

Ukrainian troops with Bradleys and M113s

Assume this is near the front line as I don't think you'd want to increase the wear and tear on the tracks when you don't need to

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Russia Invades

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue May 09, 2023 12:41 pm

Russian May Day parade

- no air at all

- only tank a T-34 (designed in Kharkiv, which is in Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1655855625899765760

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