Russia Invades

[basil6345789]

Was speaking with a Polish nurse at the hospital; a mature lady who has lived here for many years. She said that most Poles believe that Merkel knew what was about to happen before her retirement and that, given all the historical overlaps and territorial exchanges between Ukraine and Poland, that inevitably Poland will be next on the list. Sad.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Lithuania has expanded restrictions on the transit of goods through its territory to Kaliningrad, Reuters reports.
As of today, cement, timber, alcohol and alcohol-based industrial chemicals are banned, a Lithuanian customs official said.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/154 ... WwlTXuh5jw

[Lowbankclaret]

Was speaking with a Polish nurse at the hospital; a mature lady who has lived here for many years. She said that most Poles believe that Merkel knew what was about to happen before her retirement and that, given all the historical overlaps and territorial exchanges between Ukraine and Poland, that inevitably Poland will be next on the list. Sad.

That’s why this war has to end in a Ukraine’s victory. I think all the western leaders get it now. However long it takes we need to back Ukraine so they win.

[Lancasterclaret]

Was speaking with a Polish nurse at the hospital; a mature lady who has lived here for many years. She said that most Poles believe that Merkel knew what was about to happen before her retirement and that, given all the historical overlaps and territorial exchanges between Ukraine and Poland, that inevitably Poland will be next on the list. Sad.

Zero evidence for that

Germany (and others) thought that the best way of bringing Russia into the Western economic sphere was to trade with them and make each of us reliant on each other

Russia are far more reliant on us than we are on them, but they have decided that we weren't going to react to them doing whatever they wanted, and this is the result

[NewClaret]

There was a thread on Russian tank numbers on twitter that I can't find

Essentially Russia started off with 3,200 modern MBTs, and they have lost between 700-1,200 (depending on sensible, realistic or optimistic forecasts)

That 3,200 is their entire armoury of modern tanks btw

They have potentially 1000's of outdated tanks in storage but realistically most of them will be scrap, and even cannibalising them to run just means they have 100s of death traps (the older T-62s you are seeing in the hands of the Luhansk/Donestk troops have huge issues with ammo storage and protection)

I think they have also announced an "operational pause" now they have secured (at unsustainable costs) Sieverdonestk and Lychyansk, and they woulnd't be announcing that if they thought they had smashed as many Ukrainians units as they have claimed

And as has been mentioned, the extra artillery and MRLS that the Ukrainians have now got from the West make their supply issues back into the problems they had in K'yiv and the surrounding areas

One thing is for sure unfortunately, is that this is going to go on for a while yet

What I don’t understand from your figures Lancaster is that the Kyiv Independent (probably not the most “independent” but presumably using Ukraine army official figures - and presumably they don’t completely lie) is that they say 1645 have been destroyed. So nearly half of your 3200. Then they say an additional 3828 APV’s, whatever they are but they look like small tanks from the icon.

Are you saying they those figures are exaggerated?

[NewClaret]

12 Russian Officers killed:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 0.html?amp

Not sure how significant that is.

[Lowbankclaret]

12 Russian Officers killed:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 0.html?amp

Not sure how significant that is.

It’s significant if your one of the of the officers or the family.

[Lancasterclaret]

What I don’t understand from your figures Lancaster is that the Kyiv Independent (probably not the most “independent” but presumably using Ukraine army official figures - and presumably they don’t completely lie) is that they say 1645 have been destroyed. So nearly half of your 3200. Then they say an additional 3828 APV’s, whatever they are but they look like small tanks from the icon.

Are you saying they those figures are exaggerated?

Yes

[Vegas Claret]

another ammo dump goes boom
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... ZIZFQjr63A

[NewClaret]

It’s significant if your one of the of the officers or the family.

Well, obviously.

Although I was meaning in military terms. No idea how senior officers are, but I’d assumed quite senior and involved in planning/leading missions so to lose 12 is presumably a serious blow to their leadership capabilities and morale.

[NewClaret]

Yes

That’s disappointing. I read them every night to cheer me up so I’m going to pretend you haven’t said that

[NewClaret]

another ammo dump goes boom
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... ZIZFQjr63A

Unbelievable.

Good to see though.

[Lowbankclaret]

Well, obviously.

Although I was meaning in military terms. No idea how senior officers are, but I’d assumed quite senior and involved in planning/leading missions so to lose 12 is presumably a serious blow to their leadership capabilities and morale.

Sorry.
It’s always significant as they hide behind the front lines.

It affects morale of the troops because of their not safe, they are going to die.

[Vegas Claret]

different angle of the blast in Kherson, volume up but not too much as it will blow your speakers !
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... hUctkpcDog

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 9534988289

Philip O'Brien take on it

Logistics, logistics, logistics

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrian (again): Someone asked about a depot being on the other rail line into Kherson, very strong evidence that there was one and the Ukrainians took it out a few days ago. Look at the bunch of fires just next to the rail bridge on the north bank of the Dnipro.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... W24pNZ4wBg

[Vegas Claret]

and another arms depot goes pop apparently
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546 ... VhTs1zvZXg

[Vegas Claret]

further from Luhansk
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1546 ... j_00TLdBkQ

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/stat ... ckfoA&s=19

This person seems to think Ukraine is losing badly to Russia...also bemoaning a lack of reliable reporting on the conflict.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/stat ... ckfoA&s=19

This person seems to think Ukraine is losing badly to Russia...also bemoaning a lack of reliable reporting on the conflict.

Well, he admits that he's got limited experience in it after he's been roasted by the replies!

Essentially, if you look at a map of captured Ukrainian territory you go "Wow!, Russia is winning"

But if you looked at a map of captured Ukrainian territory two months ago as opposed to now, then you'd go "Wow!, Ukraine is winning"

Essentially, the more weapons, equipment and trained troops that Ukraine can field, the the harder it gets for Russia to achieve its aims without going for full mobilisation (which would drastically change life in Russia combined with sanctions)

All the stuff I've read points to a long drawn out conflict sadly

It is very hard to achieve the sort of successes that would end the war quickly when essentially a troop of about six men with MANPADS and Javelins can stop a breakthrough before its even got going, and that is applicable to both sides

[elwaclaret]

Lawrence Freedman (retweet): The anti-Zelensky propaganda from Putin's puppet regime in Chechnya has turned very odd. Sinister, of course, playing on antisemitism and expressing a desire to murder prisoners-of-war. But perhaps even more notably, just strange.

https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1 ... HAPAyifOew

[Hipper]

Well, he admits that he's got limited experience in it after he's been roasted by the replies!

Essentially, if you look at a map of captured Ukrainian territory you go "Wow!, Russia is winning"

But if you looked at a map of captured Ukrainian territory two months ago as opposed to now, then you'd go "Wow!, Ukraine is winning"

Essentially, the more weapons, equipment and trained troops that Ukraine can field, the the harder it gets for Russia to achieve its aims without going for full mobilisation (which would drastically change life in Russia combined with sanctions)

All the stuff I've read points to a long drawn out conflict sadly

It is very hard to achieve the sort of successes that would end the war quickly when essentially a troop of about six men with MANPADS and Javelins can stop a breakthrough before its even got going, and that is applicable to both sides

We've all got limited knowledge.

I can't see by any measure how Ukraine is winning. They're not even holding their own. They have recently been, albeit slowly, losing territory. All we can say is that Ukraine hasn't lost and Russia hasn't won.

We (me anyway) have no idea what Ukraine's situation is regarding manpower, materiel etc., or where they're located. I hope they are still in a good predicament but that's all it is, hope. All I see at the moment is a kind of slow but glorious defeat.

We also don't really know what Russia's aims are. It started off as the complete removal of Ukraine as a separate entity and certainly that was prevented in the short term - that battle was won by the Ukrainians. Surely that is still the Russians war aim though, but they've had to adapt to the realities of this war which they (and many commentators) completely misjudged. Generally it is the Russians that are winning the battles.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Russia's aim was to annex Ukraine wasn't it, within a very short period of time?

When that didn't happen they started backtracking on their aims, adjusting them accordingly claiming it was about protecting ethnic Russians in the East of Ukraine, defeating the Ukrainian Nazis etc.

With a bit more time they'll adjust/downgrade their aims again.

Russia aren't winning, if anything they're being fought to a stalemate and being embarrassed in the process.
They've lost dozens of senior commanders, their flagship, tanks and other equipment has been filmed being towed away by Ukrainian farmers etc.
That's before we mention their other human losses including the much lauded Chechen death squad.

Then we've got the international sanctions on Russia plus they've defaulted on their national debt payments for the first time in a hundred years isn't it?

[Lancasterclaret]

We've all got limited knowledge.

I can't see by any measure how Ukraine is winning. They're not even holding their own. They have recently been, albeit slowly, losing territory. All we can say is that Ukraine hasn't lost and Russia hasn't won.

We (me anyway) have no idea what Ukraine's situation is regarding manpower, materiel etc., or where they're located. I hope they are still in a good predicament but that's all it is, hope. All I see at the moment is a kind of slow but glorious defeat.

We also don't really know what Russia's aims are. It started off as the complete removal of Ukraine as a separate entity and certainly that was prevented in the short term - that battle was won by the Ukrainians. Surely that is still the Russians war aim though, but they've had to adapt to the realities of this war which they (and many commentators) completely misjudged. Generally it is the Russians that are winning the battles.

Hmm, not sure about that

Initial invasion, decisively defeated in the north, stopped dead on its drive to Kharh'iv and Odessa - no one can argue about that

Current Russian war aims - capture Luhansk and Donestk oblasts and hang on to what else they have got

The gains they are making (at tremendous cost) in Luhansk are more than counter balanced by the territory they are losing around Khark'iv and (especially) Kherson

Russia can make small operational gains when it concentrates its best troops and as much artillery as it has in one place, otherwise it can't advance

You've seen the pics, Russian units equipped with T-62M (first entered service in 1983) when they used to be equipped with more modern versions (T-72s, T-80s)

Thats not a sign of a country that is winning

Ukraine isn't winning either, but its stopped Russia winning the "Three day action" it wanted, and (with essentially unlimited Western financial aid, and potentially much more modern equipment from NATO and its allies) its will probably be soon in a position so that it can't lose

If you wanted an analogy to a previous conflict that is close to the current Russian situation, then I would say the German summer offenses in 1918, when they used massed artillery and extra troops bought from the East to try to win the war in the West before the economy collapsed

Neither side is winning, but Ukraine still existing is a "win"

[Lancasterclaret]

Further to that

Its in everyones interests (including the Russian people) for Ukraine to win this war as quickly as possible

That will save thousands of lives

The longer this goes on, then the costs to both sides (and their allies) becomes worse and worse, and I would say if it gets to that stage, then the Russian mentality (and attitude to sacrifices in the name of the country) might give them an edge

Russia's only hope is that Ukraine stops fighting, and that only happens if the West stop supplying them with arms and money

That seems very unlikely under any scenario (including a Trump win in elections)

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 8ogeQ&s=19

Darth Putin is generally amusing.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/ReadeAlexandra/stat ... s4LIw&s=19

New York City Emergency Management department has released a video about what to do in the event of a nuclear attack, in response to threats from Russia.
It's so bizarre I wouldn't know whether to laugh or cry if I lived in New York.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 1833716736

Confirmation that Ukraine has the full M777A2 artillery set up

Means they can far outreach and fire GPS guided projectiles

Any C & C, any ammo dump, anything that requires a precision strike can be targeted

That plus the HIMARS is huge change in what Ukraine can do

[Lowbankclaret]

We've all got limited knowledge.


So here is my two pence worth.

Russia invaded around 140 days ago.
It started with around 200,000 troops, that amount is approx and could be more or less.
Set off with around 1200 tanks.
Enough munitions to flatten most of Ukraine.
This was a 3 day war.

140 days on.
The last estimate I saw it had 90,000 to 100,000 troops in Ukraine.
Around 80% of its best troops are dead or injured.
It’s lost all the tanks it set off with and is dragging out older equipment with each coming week.
It dare not fly to far into Ukraine as Stingers just take out the planes or helicopters.

The whole thing has back to WW1 trench warfare but with 3D printed drones doing a lot of the fighting. Well from the Ukrainian side.
The Russians I read today are sending new conscripts fuelled on drugs to walk into the firing line, so the Ukrainians expose the positions so they can be shelled by artillery.

They have had to take munitions from Belarus because they are running low.

Ukraine now had HIMARS and GPS guided 155mm munitions . When the 300km HIMAR ammo arrives. They cn hit a 3 meter square anywhere in the occupied territory . They just need the GPS coordination to programme in.


Ukraine has lost land so far, and many men and women, children.
Russia Has lost the bulk of its Best men, tanks , ammunition and army infrastructure.

I predict Russia will start to lose ground it has gained soon.

[JarrowClaret]

I find the discussion around who is or isn’t winning a bit distasteful. Let’s be clear nobody wins when it comes to war everybody loses, all this death and destruction affectively caused by paranoia and a power thirst.

[Lowbankclaret]

I find the discussion around who is or isn’t winning a bit distasteful. Let’s be clear nobody wins when it comes to war everybody loses, all this death and destruction affectively caused by paranoia and a power thirst.

This whole war is distasteful.
We have shared people dying on both sides.

I think the debate on who’s is winning is distasteful but valid.

[JarrowClaret]

This whole war is distasteful.
We have shared people dying on both sides.

I think the debate on who’s is winning is distasteful but valid.

I won’t be drawn into the discussion about it other than this who is winning depends on what data you are looking at.

If you purely look at the map of how much land Russia has taken as of today you would think Russia was winning but if you compared the maps from say 2-3 weeks in, to now you would have the opposite view. As Lancaster says this is a long haul thing now and I have no idea what a victory for any of them will look I suspect they will both get to a point where they just accept stalemate 1-2 years down the line especially as western mil support for Ukraine starts to dry up as it will have to at some point.

[Lancasterclaret]

No one would be happier than me if the war ended tomorrow btw

I don't see a valid exit strategy for either side at the moment and I fear that anything other than Ukraine keeping its territory will result in us going through the same stuff in five/ten years time

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee: Video of a Russian Uran-6 mine-clearing UGV in use in Mariupol.


https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1547 ... saMny7IEiw

[Lowbankclaret]

I won’t be drawn into the discussion about it other than this who is winning depends on what data you are looking at.

If you purely look at the map of how much land Russia has taken as of today you would think Russia was winning but if you compared the maps from say 2-3 weeks in, to now you would have the opposite view. As Lancaster says this is a long haul thing now and I have no idea what a victory for any of them will look I suspect they will both get to a point where they just accept stalemate 1-2 years down the line especially as western mil support for Ukraine starts to dry up as it will have to at some point.

Russia was building 200 tanks per year and at it current rate of loses it will have lost 10 years worth by year end.

Problem is it’s current production T90 tank needs westerns electronics. French to be precise.

So unless China can reverse engineer the French stuff.

Russia is going to take a long time to build back up a conventional tank army.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62159804

Some hope of a deal to export Ukrainian grain

I could be looking at this optimistically, but I think this shows signs that Russia is looking for a way out, and that might (stress might) be the beginning of serious talks

[Lancasterclaret]

Additionally, the EU has agreed to let Russian supplies by land through to Kalinigrad, which could well be linked to the movement on allowing Ukrainian grain out through the black sea

Of course, the decision to allow Ukrainian grain out could be something as simple as that Russia no longer has the resources to stop it, and isn't keen on just sinking neutral ships to stop it

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Russia was building 200 tanks per year and at it current rate of loses it will have lost 10 years worth by year end.

Problem is it’s current production T90 tank needs westerns electronics. French to be precise.

So unless China can reverse engineer the French stuff.

Russia is going to take a long time to build back up a conventional tank army.

Weren't the French found to be still shipping the electronic stuff to Russia, "honouring" the deal agreed before Russia invaded way back in 2014?
Have the French actually stopped sending stuff now?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://m.dw.com/en/russia-tens-of-thou ... a-62462008

People who oppose the war are leaving Russia

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/15 ... 4248576001

Bit on Ukrainian drones, AI and the changing face of war

[KRBFC]

No one would be happier than me if the war ended tomorrow btw

I don't see a valid exit strategy for either side at the moment and I fear that anything other than Ukraine keeping its territory will result in us going through the same stuff in five/ten years time

Can Russia really even win though, even if they ''won'' they'd be on their knees, easy clean up for NATO to instantly swoop in and reclaim everything.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

NATO wouldn't swoop in and reclaim anything, that would be considered a direct act of aggression against Russia.
NATO is about defence of its member states, that's why NATO hasn't stepped in with this one, its member states are just providing support to Ukraine without sending in an Army.

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrien: A partial explanation of why the Russians might have left so many high value targets as sitting ducks for long range HIMARS fire. They really believed the (incredibly fanciful) talk that the S-400 could shoot them down in flight.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... hKR1VE2NSQ

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1547 ... jTyIlfYiHw

Three part video of the VDV making their run for Gostomel and Antonov Airport back on the opening days.

The tenacity with which the Ukrainians fought for their lives on those opening days is stuff of legend.

[Lowbankclaret]

Weren't the French found to be still shipping the electronic stuff to Russia, "honouring" the deal agreed before Russia invaded way back in 2014?
Have the French actually stopped sending stuff now?

Yes there have been videos of I think late T72 tanks with French electronics in them , made after the 2014 invasion. Think the company was Thales.

[Vegas Claret]

quite possibly another Russian arms depot going bang https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1547 ... pAU7raEckg

[NewClaret]

Not many better sights than Vlad’s munitions going up in flames. Presumably they’re learning from their mistakes and breaking up the others though?

I’d love to know how many of these they had and how many have been hit. They must be running low on ammo now so I hope the Ukrainians can take whatever strategic advantage they were hoping to gain quickly before they’re resupplied.

[Colburn_Claret]

Hopefully the US are tracking the replacements as we speak.
Give them a fortnight to think they are sorted, then let HMARS take the lot out.

[Lancasterclaret]

Kinda buried in the story about the US refuses to allow Turkey to modernise its F-16s fleet, but the US Congress also authorised a bill to train Ukrainian pilots on F-15 and F-16 fighters

[Terrier]

Paul urey, british aid worker held by russian separatists in ukraine has died.