Russia Invades

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:54 pm

groove wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:17 pm
I heard on the radio that over 200 square miles were now under water, but I've seen no actual footage. Is there any?

They’ve done quite a bit about it on Newsnight. The other night they had a reporter on a boat going through Kherson with a crew offering evacuation. He described it as like a weird theme park travelling through a city like it was Venice, people refusing to leave even though water levels continue to rise.

Aclaret · Post by **Aclaret** » Sat Jun 10, 2023 7:07 pm

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elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun Jun 11, 2023 12:11 am

OSINT technical: "the military personnel of the OBTF "Cascade" retreated to more advantageous positions due to the threat of being surrounded." Full report,
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun Jun 11, 2023 7:54 pm

Rob LEE: Video of a Russian 2S4 Tyulpan mortar and KamAZ-5250 truck targeted by Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1667 ... XbpxEsmRVg

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Mon Jun 12, 2023 12:28 pm

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083 ... f-lXw&s=19

An article discussing how the destruction of the dam in Ukraine could become their Chernobyl....

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Mon Jun 12, 2023 7:09 pm

This initial probing by UKR appears to have gone more or less to plan with obvious losses over open ground . They’re clearly going for the ( naturally) weakest defensive points on the RUS lines . RUS seem to almost bereft of armour and pretty thin on manpower , though not at all short on artillery. UKR must have some serious armour yet to enter with their tank brigades . I’d imagine they’re looking for a “ spearhead “ affect then throw some very serious armour numbers to smash a fist to the Azoz sea. RUS look very well dug in though and you can never underestimate them .

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:47 pm

I also think the dam blowing shenanigans has thrown UKR off balance just when they had finalised their plans and everything was poised to kick off. Whole swathes of countryside impassable to armour and equipment and impossible to attack in those areas.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 11:43 am

Re the dam flooding, when you look at this interactive map it seems to me the Russians have suffered a fair bit of damage to their defences.

https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.co ... 2f5f52038c

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 11:58 am

its not relevant to the current Ukrainian axis of advance

They are only going to cross the Dnipro when the Russians are nowhere near the south bank of it, and that realistically is only when (and if) the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azov

You can't do contested River crossing in any meaningful strength with a River the size of the Dnipro

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:34 pm

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... bat-gains/

Estonian defence plans - about 3% of GDP

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:57 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russias-lance ... 57458.html
Not all plain sailing for Ukraine but that is to be expected.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 10:30 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:57 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russias-lance ... 57458.html
Not all plain sailing for Ukraine but that is to be expected.

Not plain sailing no but there are some inaccuracies in that article.

Lancet is not destroying anything other than soft skinned vehicles. From what I have been told it has quite a small warhead designed to be more of an inbuggerence than destructive. It has been quite effective but unless it is lucky it won’t destroy anything armoured we saw that with HVM stormer when it hit it it caused damage to the launcher and some deep scratches on the Stormer itself. Stormers armour is only designed to withstand small arms fire really so it tells you how powerful it is. The Leo it hit whilst it looked good was actually the damage was minimal and what we saw was the fire suppression system on the tank doing its job. It was effective against the Iris T radar though and has been able to avoid AD hitting both a stormer and Iris that said both looked to be not deployed for some reason.

The damaged Leo’s and Bradley’s were hit by mines looking at the pictures we could see the rear doors open this would suggest that the guys inside actually got out. The purpose of an IFV/ AFV is basically to be an armoured taxi to get soldiers safely from point A to point B. If as it seems all the pax got out of the Bradley’s then these vehicles would seem to have done there job. Also I have seen pictures of Leo’s being towed for repair so maybe the Ukrainians have progress beyond this point.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Tue Jun 13, 2023 10:48 pm

Just to add what it looks like at the minute is the Ukrainians are doing lots of probing basically looking for the weakest spots, once they are found we will see lots of armour that seems to be being held back at the minute, Challenger, AMX10, Marder etc charging through them.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:10 pm

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... break-free

Realistic view of the Ukrainian offensive

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Thu Jun 15, 2023 8:15 am

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-milit ... 11937.html
Classic incompetence from the Russian commanders. I bet he was hammered on vodka.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:05 pm

https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/sta ... 7839641600

Israel selling 200 plus Merkava Tanks to two countries, one which is in Europe

Won't be going to Ukraine as Israel does not want to annoy Russia, but the idea is that this will free up some tanks to be sold to Ukraine from the two countries that receive them (according to the author)

CoolClaret · Post by **CoolClaret** » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:27 pm

Not sure if posted but this interactive article the beeb posted about the invasion is rather nuts:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/id ... 90f2c4e5d0

Discusses the change of tactics from Ruzzia - mainly how they’re using Wagner/recruits literally as meat shields.

Horrible nation

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:24 pm

https://regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/ ... l-ukraina/

Sweden to train Ukrainian pilots on Grippen fighter jets

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:14 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:24 pm
https://regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/ ... l-ukraina/

Sweden to train Ukrainian pilots on Grippen fighter jets

That’s big!

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:03 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/style/russia-gains ... 19385.html
Russian helicopters being used to good effect, hopefully Ukraine will counter with Western missiles.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:36 am

https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/16 ... 1635510272

This the kind of stuff that worries me - the West has the industrial capacity to massively out produce Russia, and its appears not to have started to use it yet

It has to make a long war unpalatable for Russia by completely eliminating any chance it has of winning

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Sun Jun 18, 2023 10:17 am

The latest from war gonzo pro Russian TG but always realistic in reports . UKR have clearly captured the town they’ve been. Fighting over this week and appears they’re getting a serious bridgehead going

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[attachment=1]ADFEF898-

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Sun Jun 18, 2023 10:19 am

Its been a while since we've seen such a grand firework display. In the early days of HIMARS there were a lot until the Russians learnt to move ammo dumps further back. Of course, Ukraine now has strike capability from further afield.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 0293538816

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Sun Jun 18, 2023 8:08 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:03 pm
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/russia-gains ... 19385.html
Russian helicopters being used to good effect, hopefully Ukraine will counter with Western missiles.

As I have mentioned previously this is exactly what HVM was
Designed for. Stormer would be very susceptible to UAV attack especially if already engaging a target, but perfect for this. I wonder if LML and Shoulder launch or stinger etc in MRAPs or something like a Spartan would help with the threat.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun Jun 18, 2023 8:44 pm

OsintTechnical: Not a healthy looking Russian ammunition dump

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 7:39 pm

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/16 ... 8304756736

Wagner PMC is claiming that its camp was attacked by Russian MOD forces

I mean, at this stage, all you can say is "WTF?"

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 7:46 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 7:39 pm
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/16 ... 8304756736

Wagner PMC is claiming that its camp was attacked by Russian MOD forces

I mean, at this stage, all you can say is "WTF?"

mental

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:18 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 9907158028

Obviously, you have to treat everything coming out of Wagner with a huge dollop of caution, but this seems fairly extreme, even for them

yTib · Post by **yTib** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:24 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:18 pm
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 9907158028

Obviously, you have to treat everything coming out of Wagner with a huge dollop of caution, but this seems fairly extreme, even for them

a possible out for putin?

yeah, i doubt it too.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:29 pm

yTib wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:24 pm
a possible out for putin?

yeah, i doubt it too.

Genuinely no idea what is going on

But this clearly can't continue if the Russians want to have an effective strategy in Ukraine

Lot of the people I follow on twitter thinks Putin has backed the army (which he has to really) and they want Wagner out

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:35 pm

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/statu ... 3087540226

Ah, bit clearer now

Wagner basically said that Russian reasons for invading Ukraine were ********

Now as this is 100% Putins baby, that would be construed as a direct attack on Putin, and that is the sort of thing that Putin would have to deal with or lose a lot of face

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:40 pm

Prigozhin has really been winding up the rhetoric v regular army brass/political decision makes (excluding Putin) in the past week or so, as if he's stirring a confrontation.
(was going to post the vid but just beaten to it I see)

It's looking like he may've now got some reaction.
I guess whoever controls the logistics/supplies will win out.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:07 pm

https://twitter.com/i/status/1671911533075365890
More drone footage, I'd have thought the ams industry will see opportunities for drone manufacturing and anti drone systems.
As an aside terrorists must be looking at this simple technology.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:43 pm

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672340262910058496

**** just got real

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:51 pm

There are pics on twitter of the Russian National Guard deploying on the streets of Rostov, which is just east of the Ukrainian border and almost certainly were Wagner have gone to refit after getting battered in Bakhmut

Watch this space

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/sta ... 6367845385

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:31 pm

Not sure if this will be a full Russian revolution but if people turn out on the streets en masse either in support or hopefully against Putin will the civil guard shoot their fellow citizens ? Almost reminds me of the end of the Ceaușescu era, hopefully.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:35 pm

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/sta ... 6367845385

Russian Prosecutor General orders an investigation into the leader of Wagner for organising and leading a rebellion

Elbarad · Post by **Elbarad** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:35 pm

Going to be an interesting night. It is a win-win really for Ukraine. Either they fight or the Russians lose their most effective ground forces. About 25K worth.

Or it’s all a brilliant ploy, though I don’t believe that at all.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:35 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:31 pm
Not sure if this will be a full Russian revolution but if people turn out on the streets en masse either in support or hopefully against Putin will the civil guard shoot their fellow citizens ? Almost reminds me of the end of the Ceaușescu era, hopefully.

Not a chance

Putin will crush this in a matter of hours

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:36 pm

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/ ... 5743588353

Russian General appealing to Wagner troops to lay down their arms in the interests of Russia

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:42 pm

Does Progozhin/Wagner control any air power? I guess they have range of ground equipment, air defence and helicopters but can they call on air power? If not they must be pretty vulnerable.

Moscow admin is reacting to a possible threat anyway- SSO has reputedly taken over the Ministry of Defence HQ in Moscow
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 3091178496

I like the comment here (re the SSO commander) "Right now, there's no way of knowing whose side he is really on: Shoigu or Prigozhin. Probably "wait & see."

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:53 pm

They have got air power, but they will be based out of RuAF airbases so in the event of a coup, they won't be able to take off

Only one winner out of this though, and that is Ukraine

If it actually leads to Russian troops shooting each other, then back goes any remaining hope that Putin has that "things will go back to normal"

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:58 pm

https://twitter.com/andrew_mueller/stat ... 7469520898

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:06 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 6812606470

Prigozhin is calling for the National Guard to follow him

If this really kicks off, then Russian military units in Ukraine aren't going to be hanging around while it all goes south at home

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:08 pm

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/16 ... 2884679681

Another very pro-Wagner Russian General telling Wagner troops to stand down

Be over by the morning

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:10 pm

This is simply huge re Wagner , their leader seems to have gone mental . The thought of a civil war /coup attempt is insane . This could well affect moral especially if UKR do some serious advancing .

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:11 pm

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:10 pm
This is simply huge re Wagner , their leader seems to have gone mental . The thought of a civil war /coup attempt is insane . This could well affect moral especially if UKR do some serious advancing .

It won't

Priogzhin will be dead or in prison by the the morning

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:28 pm

It's difficult to see how this will develop. I think Prigozhin has allies/backers outside his immediate Wagner cronies (or at least believes he has). He's definitely crossed the line now though and cant back down (he'll be arrested/tortured/fall out of a window).

It'll be a considerable danger to the current rulers if Wagner can take some control over Rostov as that's the "bridge" between most of the Russian forces in southern Ukraine and Moscow.

I guess nobody in power is telling them but I wonder how regular Russian army forces in Ukraine will react to this in-fighting whilst they're trying to keep a determined and well-equipped Ukrainian army at bay.

Claretnick · Post by **Claretnick** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:08 pm
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/16 ... 2884679681

Another very pro-Wagner Russian General telling Wagner troops to stand down

Be over by the morning

Some speculation that those generals have been arrested, time will tell
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 19044?s=20

Elbarad · Post by **Elbarad** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:42 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:11 pm
It won't

Priogzhin will be dead or in prison by the the morning

Tell me who the FSB is behind and i think that is who wins.