Russia Invades
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Re: Russia Invades
ABRAMOVICH WATCH - Chelsea sale in doubt as Russian oligarch now insisting a S $1.6B loan to the club is returned, despite previously saying it would not says THE PRICE OF FOOTBALL
https://twitter.com/kieranmaguire/statu ... GuXTYhiW8A
Elsewhere fears are growing that the British Government are dragging their heels and leaving open the possibility of his return to football ownership in the country (though probably not a return to Chelsea).
https://twitter.com/kieranmaguire/statu ... GuXTYhiW8A
Elsewhere fears are growing that the British Government are dragging their heels and leaving open the possibility of his return to football ownership in the country (though probably not a return to Chelsea).
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Re: Russia Invades
NEXTA: Large scale assault on the Avostal plant is underway.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... GuXTYhiW8A
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... GuXTYhiW8A
Re: Russia Invades
Looking like the Ukrainians are going to clear the area N and E of Kharkiv in the next couple of days. They just reported that they took Molodova, the village, not the country. There are only 3 more bridges across the Donets river, all within maybe 15 k of Molodova. So reachable, and certainly within range of artillery if the Russians tried to retreat across them.
If they do drive them all the way to the border, that puts them 40 kilometers from Belgorod. You'd think the Russians would have to redirect some forces to be sure they don't cross the border and get within artillery range of their main supply hub.
To be clear I don't think the Ukrainians have the force available currently to assault Belgorod, just saying... that's pretty close.
If they do drive them all the way to the border, that puts them 40 kilometers from Belgorod. You'd think the Russians would have to redirect some forces to be sure they don't cross the border and get within artillery range of their main supply hub.
To be clear I don't think the Ukrainians have the force available currently to assault Belgorod, just saying... that's pretty close.
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Re: Russia Invades
Kupyansk is the target - that is the main supply hub for IzyumElbarad wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 5:39 pmLooking like the Ukrainians are going to clear the area N and E of Kharkiv in the next couple of days. They just reported that they took Molodova, the village, not the country. There are only 3 more bridges across the Donets river, all within maybe 15 k of Molodova. So reachable, and certainly within range of artillery if the Russians tried to retreat across them.
If they do drive them all the way to the border, that puts them 40 kilometers from Belgorod. You'd think the Russians would have to redirect some forces to be sure they don't cross the border and get within artillery range of their main supply hub.
To be clear I don't think the Ukrainians have the force available currently to assault Belgorod, just saying... that's pretty close.
Course, the Russians will have to make sure their border is secure but I can't see the Ukrainians crossing it
Re: Russia Invades
Kupyansk is certainly A target, no doubt. If the Ukrainians did manage to clear the west bank of the Donets River that would put them a mile at most from the road to Belgorod and Kypyansk. Obviously they can take other, longer routes, but still I think that would be a pain point.
Fingers crossed.
I'll get back in my arm chair and general some more now. Hah.
Fingers crossed.
I'll get back in my arm chair and general some more now. Hah.
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Re: Russia Invades
Finland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.
https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.
https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
Re: Russia Invades
Let's hope so !jos wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 6:51 pmFinland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.
https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
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Re: Russia Invades
Phillips-OBrien: Another command post targeted by Ukraine along with ammo dumps, as Ukraine continues to exploit improving missile technology and western intelligence advantages.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA
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Re: Russia Invades
Rob LEE: Todays update, including gains for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... 66BZUs9TbA
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... 66BZUs9TbA
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Re: Russia Invades
Let’s hope this is true.jos wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 6:51 pmFinland minister advisor-
Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake.
https://twitter.com/ohra_aho/status/152 ... 32608?s=21
What is true is Russia is losing, but at great cost to Ukrainians lives.
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Re: Russia Invades
Phillips-OBrien: analysts starting to consider how to turn defence into Ukrainian counter-attack.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA
(You’d expect them, given their allies to make a far more considered approach to that adopted by Putin)
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 66BZUs9TbA
(You’d expect them, given their allies to make a far more considered approach to that adopted by Putin)
Re: Russia Invades
Killed in Ukraine:-
447 killed Russian officers • Updated 2nd May 2022
https://twitter.com/killedinukraine/sta ... 35745?s=21
447 killed Russian officers • Updated 2nd May 2022
https://twitter.com/killedinukraine/sta ... 35745?s=21
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... 6r97g&s=19
A growing belief that Russia will announce mobilization on May 9th
A growing belief that Russia will announce mobilization on May 9th
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/ ... 8441390080
EU to ban the import of Russian oil*
*despite many people thinking otherwise, the EU can't just do this and the member states having no say, so this is just the start of a process, but its a welcome development
EU to ban the import of Russian oil*
*despite many people thinking otherwise, the EU can't just do this and the member states having no say, so this is just the start of a process, but its a welcome development
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Re: Russia Invades
So I have screenshot the before and after, and will put the link to the after video.
But I have a question for anyone who might know the answer to a question. So obviously this supply convoy was parked up and spotted by a drone, first picture. Now the question, previously I understood laser guided munitions needed someone on the ground to be pointing a laser at the target. In the new world of drones, are drones now used to do the laser targeting. I ask because this attack looks to be very successful at hitting the targets.
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... DnpjqqfpCA
But I have a question for anyone who might know the answer to a question. So obviously this supply convoy was parked up and spotted by a drone, first picture. Now the question, previously I understood laser guided munitions needed someone on the ground to be pointing a laser at the target. In the new world of drones, are drones now used to do the laser targeting. I ask because this attack looks to be very successful at hitting the targets.
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... DnpjqqfpCA
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Re: Russia Invades
Whilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
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Re: Russia Invades
There was a great thread on the web about the difference between air burst shells and shells that explode when they hit the ground, especially when targeting troops in trenches and fortificationsLowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:47 amWhilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
Essentially the Russians appear not to be using them, which means they are essentially wasting their time when shelling troops in trenches and fortifications
For Ukraine to take back these territories, they are going to have to be able to take and destroy pretty extensive Russian fortifications and trench systems, and the artillery and munitions that Ukraine is receiving might well help them to do that
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Re: Russia Invades
I read the guided shells cost $68,000 each. Like wow , that’s a lot of cash per shell.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:54 amThere was a great thread on the web about the difference between air burst shells and shells that explode when they hit the ground, especially when targeting troops in trenches and fortifications
Essentially the Russians appear not to be using them, which means they are essentially wasting their time when shelling troops in trenches and fortifications
For Ukraine to take back these territories, they are going to have to be able to take and destroy pretty extensive Russian fortifications and trench systems, and the artillery and munitions that Ukraine is receiving might well help them to do that
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Re: Russia Invades
Yup, but fighting wars bankrupt countriesLowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:59 amI read the guided shells cost $68,000 each. Like wow , that’s a lot of cash per shell.
Continuing to fight wars after the initial beliefs and objectives are proved to be totally wrong and totally unachievable, and taking unsustainable casualties and short, medium and long term damage to your countries economic health is absolutely bonkers, and there is no sign that Russia are willing to accept they have miscalculated
I'm back to the worried stage now about this spreading, and I do wonder what the mad f**ker is going to say on May 9th
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 6867811328
South Ossetian troops not happy with the conduct of war
South Ossetian troops not happy with the conduct of war
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Re: Russia Invades
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1 ... u58PQ&s=19
Not for the faint hearted, story of some Ukrainian soldiers who were subsequently tortured
Not for the faint hearted, story of some Ukrainian soldiers who were subsequently tortured
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Re: Russia Invades
Well so much for the EU’s “ crippling sanctions “ You get in bed with your enemy and here’s the results . The EU literally funding the atrocity . Russia of course knew this would leave Germany totally rudderless for around a year , in which time they’d be all wrapped up and … quelle suprise ! “ carry on regardless “! supplying oil.
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Re: Russia Invades
In short, big ‘drones’ have always had the correct type of laser to guide munitions. Look at the US/UK Predator and Reaper. Ukraine has this capability in the TB2. As you state, you can also lase from the ground. Smaller drones aren’t big enough to take either the laser or power it to guide a munition properly. But they can still spot….Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 9:06 amSo I have screenshot the before and after, and will put the link to the after video.
But I have a question for anyone who might know the answer to a question. So obviously this supply convoy was parked up and spotted by a drone, first picture. Now the question, previously I understood laser guided munitions needed someone on the ground to be pointing a laser at the target. In the new world of drones, are drones now used to do the laser targeting. I ask because this attack looks to be very successful at hitting the targets.
CB24CF9B-BC9B-461C-BC26-231E7E5A1E27.jpeg
EB4EB6DB-9EB1-4A42-981C-D072B2254A1D.png
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/statu ... DnpjqqfpCA
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Re: Russia Invades
Not watched the video yet, but not necessarily guided munitions. If you know where you are to a high degree of precision, you know where your target is to a high degree then you can still accurately fire arty or mortars if your fire control and aiming systems are accurate. If you’re also able to adjust properly then it’s even easier.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:47 amWhilst doing some reading on the American guided munitions this video popped up. The 155mm munitions appear to be mainly gps guided, so I guess the Drone in this video is providing gps data . It is very accurate on this video. No where to run and hide. But most troops appear to survive the explosions and move to another location before getting hit again.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1521 ... q3ROMAzXTA
Key - don’t get spotted.
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Re: Russia Invades
Again, they take time to implement and it has to be agreed across 27 countriesAlargeClaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 1:25 pmWell so much for the EU’s “ crippling sanctions “ You get in bed with your enemy and here’s the results . The EU literally funding the atrocity . Russia of course knew this would leave Germany totally rudderless for around a year , in which time they’d be all wrapped up and … quelle suprise ! “ carry on regardless “! supplying oil.
The biggest thing in todays sanctions announced by the EU (something we 100% won't do unfortunately) is the ban on EU citizens and companies working with Russia. That will cut off those companies that essentially spread Russian propaganda and those organisations that go after people and organisations who try to tell the truth about Putin, oligarchs and the Russian Federation
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Re: Russia Invades
Take it back, the Uk has just banned it from three sectors (management consulting, accountancy and PR)Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 3:31 pmAgain, they take time to implement and it has to be agreed across 27 countries
The biggest thing in todays sanctions announced by the EU (something we 100% won't do unfortunately) is the ban on EU citizens and companies working with Russia. That will cut off those companies that essentially spread Russian propaganda and those organisations that go after people and organisations who try to tell the truth about Putin, oligarchs and the Russian Federation
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 6516783106
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Re: Russia Invades
So this is the first recorded new tank T-90M MBT.
Obviously no better than the old stuff against the wests stuff.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... AwpXpYK9Gw
Obviously no better than the old stuff against the wests stuff.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... AwpXpYK9Gw
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Re: Russia Invades
They are not going to be, the anti-tank stuff the West is sending is specifically designed to kill this type of tankLowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 6:37 pmSo this is the first recorded new tank T-90M MBT.
Obviously no better than the old stuff against the wests stuff.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... AwpXpYK9Gw
Until they work out proper tactics and have proper unit formations (no more of these clearly over balanced BTGs) then they will continue to take these sorts of losses
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Re: Russia Invades
Some combat footage allegedly from near Kharkiv in three parts. Part three shows all the kit the Russians left behind.
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
There are no real killings or gory bits.
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
There are no real killings or gory bits.
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Re: Russia Invades
The videos I just posted, show the Ukrainians using mainly 4x4 trucks to move quickly, strike and move on.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 6:51 pmThey are not going to be, the anti-tank stuff the West is sending is specifically designed to kill this type of tank
Until they work out proper tactics and have proper unit formations (no more of these clearly over balanced BTGs) then they will continue to take these sorts of losses
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Re: Russia Invades
Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 7:22 pmSome combat footage allegedly from near Kharkiv in three parts. Part three shows all the kit the Russians left behind.
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... AwpXpYK9Gw
There are no real killings or gory bits.
Bit of an update from my friend in south east Ukraine!
Their sister battalion has lost over 450 KIA over the last 10 days so have had to pull in the reserve troops and get them replaced. a staggering amount of deaths but it just highlights how contested it still is.
They repelled 2 Russian BTG’s which also took horrendous casualties and lost around 16 tanks over the last 4 days, countless of other vehicles also.
There are another 2 BTG’s that are now deemed to be not combat effective, they must be down to 30-20% CE.
They estimates that the Russians have lost up to 33% of their full invasion force which is a huge amount if true his figures would be more accurate than ours though I would think.
The Russian BTG’s keep on getting thrown together ad hoc and launched back into the fray, they are only using people from the far flung districts of Russia, he hasn’t seen any from the Moscow or St Petersburg districts etc as the death toll there would sway public opinion.
That’s just in his area, Ukrainian forces are relieving and pushing the orcs out of Kharkiv district and are doing well.
Public opinion will mean that I would be hugely shocked if Putin mobilised anytime soon!
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Re: Russia Invades
Firstly I think from all I have read, they have lost more than 33% of the force they invaded with. They have made Ukrainians in the occupied parts sign up and fight plus people they have brought from other parts of the world.JarrowClaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 9:10 pmBit of an update from my friend in south east Ukraine!
Their sister battalion has lost over 450 KIA over the last 10 days so have had to pull in the reserve troops and get them replaced. a staggering amount of deaths but it just highlights how contested it still is.
They repelled 2 Russian BTG’s which also took horrendous casualties and lost around 16 tanks over the last 4 days, countless of other vehicles also.
There are another 2 BTG’s that are now deemed to be not combat effective, they must be down to 30-20% CE.
They estimates that the Russians have lost up to 33% of their full invasion force which is a huge amount if true his figures would be more accurate than ours though I would think.
The Russian BTG’s keep on getting thrown together ad hoc and launched back into the fray, they are only using people from the far flung districts of Russia, he hasn’t seen any from the Moscow or St Petersburg districts etc as the death toll there would sway public opinion.
That’s just in his area, Ukrainian forces are relieving and pushing the orcs out of Kharkiv district and are doing well.
Public opinion will mean that I would be hugely shocked if Putin mobilised anytime soon!
I see the casualties mount for Russia and honestly whilst I know the Ukrainians must be taking heavy casualties I kinda want to hope they don’t. Sad to hear they lost so many. Wish we could do more to help them.
But unless something drastically changes, I see Ukraine drivingRussians out .
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Re: Russia Invades
Just bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.
Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
Re: Russia Invades
Hopefully with heavy casualties on both sides. Just because some Russian ministers get scared of a purge and take Putin out doesn’t make them hero’s. Having a good handful of those guys go down with him would be just desserts. Just my opinion and I’m not suggesting you would view his generals and ministers as hero’s either.NewClaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pmJust bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.
Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?)
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
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Re: Russia Invades
NewClaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pmJust bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.
Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
fingers crossed
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Re: Russia Invades
DunnoNewClaret wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 11:46 pmJust bringing the various threads of conversation together, my thoughts would be that the chances of a coup are increasing.
Russia seem to be getting battered, taking heavy losses. They can’t retain ground now, there’s no chance they can stay and occupy. So Putin has two choices: send more in or claim aims achieved and get out (on V day?).
Now, sense you get is that he’s very unlikely to do the latter, being a head case and all, so he sends more in & the same rout continues. As losses mount he becomes more and more frustrated with his intelligence, advisors, etc and they’ll all know they’re in for the chop (literally). Faced with that prospect I think the rumours about them planning a coup might be true - kill or be killed and all that.
Just finished reading Johnathan Dimberbys book on "Russia" (written in 2007), and all the stuff you hear about Putins Russia now is just starting and he absolutely nails the dangers that entails. It really good have been written this year as absolutely nothing has changed
Long story short, I don't think the Russians are going to rise up against Putin as he represents stability and a huge link to the past
Hope I'm wrong though
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Re: Russia Invades
The status quote can't continue.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 7:27 amDunno
Just finished reading Johnathan Dimberbys book on "Russia" (written in 2007), and all the stuff you hear about Putins Russia now is just starting and he absolutely nails the dangers that entails. It really good have been written this year as absolutely nothing has changed
Long story short, I don't think the Russians are going to rise up against Putin as he represents stability and a huge link to the past
Hope I'm wrong though
Russian losses aren't sustainable, they don't have the man power, or equipment to hold onto their gains, never mind to push on and gain ground (so long as the West keep up supplies ). The sanctions, although they will be felt, haven't had time to bite yet.
The problem the world faces is what happens when the balance tilts, what will Putin do, will he be allowed to do it. I doubt even the powers that be, have anymore idea than the rest of us.
Throwing in untrained conscripts, from far flung outposts of Russia, in order to protect the Moscovite troops, sums this tyrant up as much as anything. He really is as bad as Hitler. The world cannot appease him in anyway. Whenever this horrible war ends, Russia needs to be treated like a Pariah until he is gone.
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Re: Russia Invades
I agree with everything in the 4-5 posts.Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 7:52 amThe status quote can't continue.
Russian losses aren't sustainable, they don't have the man power, or equipment to hold onto their gains, never mind to push on and gain ground (so long as the West keep up supplies ). The sanctions, although they will be felt, haven't had time to bite yet.
The problem the world faces is what happens when the balance tilts, what will Putin do, will he be allowed to do it. I doubt even the powers that be, have anymore idea than the rest of us.
Throwing in untrained conscripts, from far flung outposts of Russia, in order to protect the Moscovite troops, sums this tyrant up as much as anything. He really is as bad as Hitler. The world cannot appease him in anyway. Whenever this horrible war ends, Russia needs to be treated like a Pariah until he is gone.
But the problem with Russia is you hope it’s going to change with leadership. Gorbachev dramatically changed the country and it looked like it might take on a more eastern style approach and kinda did for a while. The west then starts to cosy up to Russia hoping it sees the symbiotic relationship helps a Russia financially and economically and with stability.
Then along comes Putin.
So we could get another Gorbachev next, but when does another Putin come along.
Russia could have made its people lives so much better with the money pouring in, but no he spends on arms to attack people with.
It is a really sad state of affairs, due to one lunatic.
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Re: Russia Invades
It's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:31 amI agree with everything in the 4-5 posts.
But the problem with Russia is you hope it’s going to change with leadership. Gorbachev dramatically changed the country and it looked like it might take on a more eastern style approach and kinda did for a while. The west then starts to cosy up to Russia hoping it sees the symbiotic relationship helps a Russia financially and economically and with stability.
Then along comes Putin.
So we could get another Gorbachev next, but when does another Putin come along.
Russia could have made its people lives so much better with the money pouring in, but no he spends on arms to attack people with.
It is a really sad state of affairs, due to one lunatic.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.
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Re: Russia Invades
Again, I'd love you both to be right, but the Russian experts online are all saying the same thing, they can't see Putin being removed by a popular uprising, whatever he doesColburn_Claret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:50 amIt's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.
Mind you, they all thought Putin was bluffing when he built up his military around Ukraine so who knows?
The key is finding some way out of this, and there isn't one at the moment
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Re: Russia Invades
Unfortunately history suggests other wise.Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 9:50 amIt's his age, clinging to a bye gone era, supported by people with the same hangups.
As soon as Russia can get a leader under 50 years old, it will change, and never go back imo.
Gorbachev, put forward a new openness, freedom of speech etc. The people with power didn’t like it and there was a failed coup. But ultimately dissolved the USSR. That caused massive issues for normal Russians. Economically and lack of basic foods.
Along come Putin and he provides stability, but makes people around him very rich, they keep him in power.
I really don’t see Russia suddenly becoming ademocratic state. Too many powerful men with all the money.
Therefore your always in danger of another Putin.
The world needs to stop giving him money and arm to the teeth against him, in a defensive position. The second Cold War is next unfortunately.
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Re: Russia Invades
Agree to disagree.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 10:08 amUnfortunately history suggests other wise.
Gorbachev, put forward a new openness, freedom of speech etc. The people with power didn’t like it and there was a failed coup. But ultimately dissolved the USSR. That caused massive issues for normal Russians. Economically and lack of basic foods.
Along come Putin and he provides stability, but makes people around him very rich, they keep him in power.
I really don’t see Russia suddenly becoming ademocratic state. Too many powerful men with all the money.
Therefore your always in danger of another Putin.
The world needs to stop giving him money and arm to the teeth against him, in a defensive position. The second Cold War is next unfortunately.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.
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Re: Russia Invades
I’m afraid the only medium/long term solution to the fascist dictatorship in Russia is a civil war. Many brave Russian citizens will die fighting for a ‘free, independent and democratic’ country.
They’re just too frightened at the moment to rebel but their time will come and (when that moment in time does arrive) we must support them in every way we can.
Btw, I hope everyone is voting today in our free and democratic local elections!
They’re just too frightened at the moment to rebel but their time will come and (when that moment in time does arrive) we must support them in every way we can.
Btw, I hope everyone is voting today in our free and democratic local elections!
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Re: Russia Invades
Another thorough and thought provoking thread from Kalim Galeev in which he explains the ethnic mix of the Russian Army conscripts, i.e. mainly ethnic minorities from Asiatic and other rural regions which may explain the lack of resolve and fighting capabilities of the Russian army despite it's weight of numbers and equipment. Some of the one year conscripts become "contractors" and sign on for longer because of the money which is more than they would earn back home. Ethnic white Russians from St Petersburg and Moscow can avoid being conscripted by going to University.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... gr%5Etweet
The real victims are these ethnic groupings in the Russian Federation who seem powerless and also the objects of racism from Russia's white supremacist right wing types. He's scathing about the Russian "Liberals" who he thinks shares the same view as Putin et al of centralised control except with proper elections. He expounds that Russians largely regard Ukrainians as ethnically inferior as they are tainted with non Slavic blood and are just a troublesome minority to be put down. Ironically the people doing the putting down on behalf of the White Russian/Moscow/Petersburg elites are minorities from other parts of Russia. Galeev believes that the only real solution to putting a halt to Russian empire building is a fragmentation of the Russian Federation however due to the police state, this is unlikely to happen any time soon. There is a very interesting clip on the thread of people from Buryat an Siberian Asiatic area who seem to have twigged what is going on, however they seem to have a fatalistic sense of inevitability.
This really is a fascinating read where the author draws numerous perspectives both historical and present in a simple easy to understand manner to present a view of the current situation.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... gr%5Etweet
The real victims are these ethnic groupings in the Russian Federation who seem powerless and also the objects of racism from Russia's white supremacist right wing types. He's scathing about the Russian "Liberals" who he thinks shares the same view as Putin et al of centralised control except with proper elections. He expounds that Russians largely regard Ukrainians as ethnically inferior as they are tainted with non Slavic blood and are just a troublesome minority to be put down. Ironically the people doing the putting down on behalf of the White Russian/Moscow/Petersburg elites are minorities from other parts of Russia. Galeev believes that the only real solution to putting a halt to Russian empire building is a fragmentation of the Russian Federation however due to the police state, this is unlikely to happen any time soon. There is a very interesting clip on the thread of people from Buryat an Siberian Asiatic area who seem to have twigged what is going on, however they seem to have a fatalistic sense of inevitability.
This really is a fascinating read where the author draws numerous perspectives both historical and present in a simple easy to understand manner to present a view of the current situation.
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Re: Russia Invades
Kamil Galeev also has some interesting thoughts on parallels between Lenin and the Russian revolution and the situation today.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6292978692
Soon Putin will have to decide whether to declare a war or not, at the moment Service personnel can actually resign from the Armed Forces as they are contractors or if they are conscrits they shouldn't be fighting in the Ukraine, however most of them are what Galeev calls "bumpkins" and they don't know their rights.
If Putin declares war and enacts mass mobilisation the situation changes, however he also creates a massive danger for himself as, by creating a mass call up he will be putting rifles in the hands of conscripts who may well not want to go to the Ukraine to get their arses shot off. Back in 1917 Lenin realised that by calling for an end to Russian participation in the war he could mobilise a following to overthrow the Government and impose a Soviet Bolshevik led set up and those conscripts need not go to the trenches and get shot up by Germans. Marx predicted that the revolution would occur in the most advance Industrialised nation, whereas Lenin was a lot more more pragmatic and realised that a few thousand peasants with rifles acting with self preservation at the forefront of their thoughts might be able to deliver the workers paradise, even though Russia was mainly a semi feudal country at the time.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6292978692
Soon Putin will have to decide whether to declare a war or not, at the moment Service personnel can actually resign from the Armed Forces as they are contractors or if they are conscrits they shouldn't be fighting in the Ukraine, however most of them are what Galeev calls "bumpkins" and they don't know their rights.
If Putin declares war and enacts mass mobilisation the situation changes, however he also creates a massive danger for himself as, by creating a mass call up he will be putting rifles in the hands of conscripts who may well not want to go to the Ukraine to get their arses shot off. Back in 1917 Lenin realised that by calling for an end to Russian participation in the war he could mobilise a following to overthrow the Government and impose a Soviet Bolshevik led set up and those conscripts need not go to the trenches and get shot up by Germans. Marx predicted that the revolution would occur in the most advance Industrialised nation, whereas Lenin was a lot more more pragmatic and realised that a few thousand peasants with rifles acting with self preservation at the forefront of their thoughts might be able to deliver the workers paradise, even though Russia was mainly a semi feudal country at the time.
Re: Russia Invades
I follow this thread with great interest from many that are providing us with detailed information.
A lot is backed up with links etc, but there is still much speculation.
My paranoia is heightened when there are talks/threats of nuclear missiles being used.
What are the thoughts about this?
Are there any expectations of Putin's plans to celebrate Victory Day on May 9th?
A lot is backed up with links etc, but there is still much speculation.
My paranoia is heightened when there are talks/threats of nuclear missiles being used.
What are the thoughts about this?
Are there any expectations of Putin's plans to celebrate Victory Day on May 9th?
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Re: Russia Invades
Russia know that if they use nukes, they cross a line, and that line could result in them dying. No one, not even Putin, thinks they are immortalTopCat wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 2:51 pmI follow this thread with great interest from many that are providing us with detailed information.
A lot is backed up with links etc, but there is still much speculation.
My paranoia is heightened when there are talks/threats of nuclear missiles being used.
What are the thoughts about this?
Are there any expectations of Putin's plans to celebrate Victory Day on May 9th?
They are desperate for the internal consumption to be concentrating on everything but the war (their reports from the front line clearly show they haven't moved, and also there will be enough stuff getting through showing that things are not going well ie the Moskva sinking) and telling everyone each night that they can blow up the UK (without mentioning that the same would happen to them) will show Russians how strong they still are
No idea about May 9th at all, though I suspect they will declare some sort of victory in Mariupol, but whether that will be enough for them to come to the negotiating table with realistic propositions for peace is doubtful
Mind you, not sure the Ukrainian peace demands would be anymore realistic, which isn't helping (but are fully understandable because of what is happening every day)
What is flabbergasting (and I think shows a lot of the problems we in the West have with this) is that no one expected Russia to use the same tactics in Ukraine that it did in Syria, and having that brutally played out in front of us is really hardening attitudes to Russia in the West
I'm not sure where Russia goes from here, but its in serious danger of becoming some huge version of North Korea, and I don't think that is good for anyone
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Re: Russia Invades
Yes and they also talk about flooding the Uk with some mythical missile called Poseidon, as far as I can tell it is still in development and not part of there inventory at the minute.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 3:03 pmRussia know that if they use nukes, they cross a line, and that line could result in them dying. No one, not even Putin, thinks they are immortal
They are desperate for the internal consumption to be concentrating on everything but the war (their reports from the front line clearly show they haven't moved, and also there will be enough stuff getting through showing that things are not going well ie the Moskva sinking) and telling everyone each night that they can blow up the UK (without mentioning that the same would happen to them) will show Russians how strong they still are
No idea about May 9th at all, though I suspect they will declare some sort of victory in Mariupol, but whether that will be enough for them to come to the negotiating table with realistic propositions for peace is doubtful
Mind you, not sure the Ukrainian peace demands would be anymore realistic, which isn't helping (but are fully understandable because of what is happening every day)
What is flabbergasting (and I think shows a lot of the problems we in the West have with this) is that no one expected Russia to use the same tactics in Ukraine that it did in Syria, and having that brutally played out in front of us is really hardening attitudes to Russia in the West
I'm not sure where Russia goes from here, but its in serious danger of becoming some huge version of North Korea, and I don't think that is good for anyone
The thing is the Russian media can talk about it, Putin may even want to do it but they all know if they ever pressed that button a HUGE portion of what they want to launch either won’t launch or fail before arming so I suspect they won’t try any Nuclear attack certainly a strategic 1.
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Re: Russia Invades
YeahJarrowClaret wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 3:11 pmYes and they also talk about flooding the Uk with some mythical missile called Poseidon, as far as I can tell it is still in development and not part of there inventory at the minute.
The thing is the Russian media can talk about it, Putin may even want to do it but they all know if they ever pressed that button a HUGE portion of what they want to launch either won’t launch or fail before arming so I suspect they won’t try any Nuclear attack certainly a strategic 1.
Its all talk, and it would be amusing if it wasn't being happily swallowed wholesale by huge swathes of the Russian population