Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 4:16 pm

It’s going to be difficult to be independent in agriculture, when we are using loads of our land for building new houses.

Don't think we've been self sufficient in agriculture since about 1850

Don't think its a realistic ambition to be self sufficient in it as well

RicardoMontalban wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 4:50 pm

But resources and where you get them from are absolutely going to be a security issue going forward.

If not self sufficiency, which is more achievable with energy, then dependency needs to be addressed. What % of grain supply does Ukraine account for? Think it’s the second highest in Europe after everyone’s favourite, Russia. What effect does the recent developments in India have on that matter?

That was the point I was cackhandedly trying to make.

That’s ok, we are all friends on this thread. I agree with what your saying it’s just hard with agriculture, mainly due to the weather here.
Ukraines supplies just over 20% of the world grain, Russia 10% from what I have read.
Ukraine also supplies 80% of the UK sunflower oil.

Ukraine supplies over 50% of some African countries grain, this is why there is lots of reports of starvation and famine later in the year.
None of it is good.

Putin has risked Russias future, he went in thinking he had 4 Aces and then realised he had a pair of twos, if you get the poker analogy.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 4:57 pm

Don't think we've been self sufficient in agriculture since about 1850

Don't think its a realistic ambition to be self sufficient in it as well

That was the point I tried to make, but badly. You did a much better job.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 5:23 pm

That was the point I tried to make, but badly. You did a much better job.

Cheers!

I think its possible for us to be self sufficent in energy, but it will require a long term plan and a s**tload of cash

I don't think any government has the stones for such a long term plan (especially if it involves lots of renewables)

But we are veering well of topic here!

Interesting Map, territory taken back by Ukraine.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 5:30 pm

Cheers!

I think its possible for us to be self sufficent in energy, but it will require a long term plan and a s**tload of cash

I don't think any government has the stones for such a long term plan (especially if it involves lots of renewables)

But we are veering well of topic here!

To be fair, I think it’s relevant in the current climate.

I just had a quote for a 4.8kwh solar array to be fitted. £6,000. With a claimed saving of £900 a year on my electric.

Claims, Ukraine have crossed the Donets river.

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 1:17 pm

Being reported that the Russians are killing their own wounded

Just read about it , horrific.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... on-problem

Potential vibration issue with the Ka-52 attack helicopter

RicardoMontalban wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 4:50 pm

But resources and where you get them from are absolutely going to be a security issue going forward.

If not self sufficiency, which is more achievable with energy, then dependency needs to be addressed. What % of grain supply does Ukraine account for? Think it’s the second highest in Europe after everyone’s favourite, Russia. What effect does the recent developments in India have on that matter?

That was the point I was cackhandedly trying to make.

Don’t think you were cack-handed, I followed your argument; maybe because I share it.

PHILLIPS-OBrien (retweet): Izyum district Russian ammo dump destroyed by direct M777 hit

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/152 ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

ELINT NEWS: First signs that the super-heroic fight by Ukrainian troops in Azovstal steel plant is over. It is believed few remained unwounded before they consented to surrender.

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

REUTERS: on the above story - Commander says he is obeying orders to save lives.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1526 ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

If the Russians allow them to leave it is the right decision, poor guys been shelled, bombed and shot at for 70 days.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 5:20 pm

That’s ok, we are all friends on this thread. I agree with what your saying it’s just hard with agriculture, mainly due to the weather here.
Ukraines supplies just over 20% of the world grain, Russia 10% from what I have read.
Ukraine also supplies 80% of the UK sunflower oil.

Ukraine supplies over 50% of some African countries grain, this is why there is lots of reports of starvation and famine later in the year.
None of it is good.

Putin has risked Russias future, he went in thinking he had 4 Aces and then realised he had a pair of twos, if you get the poker analogy.

Am I right in remembering that the UK has laws preventing importing of GMO crops? Most of the US farmers plant grain that is 'Roundup Ready' which I believe is GMO.

IanMcL wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 9:01 pm

That is about right. My 4kw was over £14k 10 years ago and I have max Feed In Tariff. It paid up after 7 years and I now recoup about £1800 per year. In my 11th year of 25.

Good to know from someone who has it. It appears a no brainer, so you think there is a catch.

OSINTtechnical - Russian kamikaze tanks drivers on a Ukrainian mined road.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 9:06 pm

Good to know from someone who has it. It appears a no brainer, so you think there is a catch.

No catch. Way to go.

Very uplifting when the sunshine and very depressing in Winter or cloudy days!

Can be freezing and sunny, that's ok.
Hot and cloudy a no no.

I have great mood swings in these times, because just when you need it most, there is no sun!!!

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 9:06 pm

OSINTtechnical - Russian kamikaze tanks drivers on a Ukrainian mined road.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

Bit silly of them!

ANDREW NIEL (retweet): Strange why the ‘usual suspects’ have not taken to the streets about Russian atrocities in Ukraine, and the NUS has had nothing to say.

https://twitter.com/jakewsimons/status/ ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

Ben Williams (Guardian) tweet: Top military experts expressing the view that Putin is now directly controlling operations from the Kremlin (and if our earlier news on here is correct, has been doing so for some time). It gets more and more like a modern Czar attitude to WW1 loses, but PUTIN is now DIRECTLY to blame for Russia’s increasingly horrendous loses.

https://twitter.com/briw74/status/15262 ... NRbuIyi2ZQ

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 2704890882

4 and 1/2 minutes of military reality on Russian TV

The fact that its even being broadcast is potentially very good news

You can sense the woman was not happy with his analysis!

What's the odds on Mikhail Khodaryonok suddenly falling ill or falling out of a window?

Billy Balfour wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:00 pm

What's the odds on Mikhail Khodaryonok suddenly falling ill or falling out of a window?

Thing is, there has been a lot of very similar stuff coming out from Russian soldiers/military experts on twitter

I wonder if this si all laying the ground work, plus the surrender of Mariupol, for a cease fire and a retreat back to the start lines of before the war started

Unless all the military analysts are wrong, Russia faces defeat, and could potentially suffer a big military defeat that might entail loss of the the bit of the Donbass it has and the Crimea

I wonder.....

Either that of laying the groundwork for a coup.

Billy Balfour wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:06 pm

Either that of laying the groundwork for a coup.

Very unlikely

Putin support is rock solid among everybody but (I'm guessing) the military

IanMcL wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 9:58 pm

You can sense the woman was not happy with his analysis!

She wanted to be sure she wasn't on the list for 15 years in prison!

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:07 pm

She wanted to be sure she wasn't on the list for 15 years in prison!

Thing is, everything she said was clearly an attempt to derail what he was saying

Even admitting that Ukraine has high morale is completely uncharted territory for Russian TV

Hah, yeah.. it was really obvious she didn't want to agree with anything he said that was in anyway not supportive of the regime or it's official messaging.

He was admitting that Russia was the aggressor and Ukrainian soldiers were as fired up as the Red Army was when they defended their motherland against the Nazis.

Billy Balfour wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:14 pm

He was admitting that Russia was the aggressor and Ukrainian soldiers were as fired up as the Red Army was when they defended their motherland against the Nazis.

Yeah, that was beyond startling

Wow he is a dead man walking. What he said is true,make him the new leader of Russia , we could become friends again.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... XIHMOAprXQ

Billy Balfour wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:06 pm

Either that of laying the groundwork for a coup.

Some articles saying coup already in process and will complete around August!

The word being RasPutOUT has cancer of some description and other things requiring imminent surgery.

Doubles already lined up, so he maintains his invincible reputation!

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 8:57 pm

Am I right in remembering that the UK has laws preventing importing of GMO crops? Most of the US farmers plant grain that is 'Roundup Ready' which I believe is GMO.

Roundup is the stuff that kills Bees and just about every other insect......hey, but it's safe for humans!

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:03 pm

Thing is, there has been a lot of very similar stuff coming out from Russian soldiers/military experts on twitter

I wonder if this si all laying the ground work, plus the surrender of Mariupol, for a cease fire and a retreat back to the start lines of before the war started

Unless all the military analysts are wrong, Russia faces defeat, and could potentially suffer a big military defeat that might entail loss of the the bit of the Donbass it has and the Crimea

I wonder.....

Why would Ukraine go for a deal like that?..........Run 'em out forever!

Taffy on the wing wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 3:48 am

Roundup is the stuff that kills Bees and just about every other insect......hey, but it's safe for humans!

Well… Roundup is a herbicide. Not a pesticide. And it’s sprayed on corn and soy beans before the plants flower so not on the parts anyone eats. But they use genetic editing to make the crops not die from the herbicide. I thought that was the cause of your country’s concern. Not 100% sure. They are your laws not mine that I’m asking about. Heck I’m not even sure if our crops are banned in the UK but I thought they were. Anyway, someone asked about the UK becoming self sufficient in food production and I wondered if you could import the grain from the USA. I believe not, but am asking.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 16, 2022 10:07 pm

Very unlikely

Putin support is rock solid among everybody but (I'm guessing) the military

Really?! Whilst I agree that a coup seems unlikely, for you to suggest that Putin has rock solid support from everybody, apart from maybe the military, seems a stretch to say the least.

Taffy on the wing wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 3:52 am

Why would Ukraine go for a deal like that?..........Run 'em out forever!

Its a Ukrainian pre condition for ceasefire talks

The most independent polling from the Levada Centre which is not supported by the regime suggests that Putin still has an 83% approval rating with 81% supporting the military action in Ukraine. Difficult to get your head round from a western perspective but what the Russian people is told is diametrically opposed to the news we get in the west. Putin’s popularity peaked during the military exploits in Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014) at 88/89%. His rating dropped by a third over the course of the long Chechen conflict so there is a chance that a long war will see him become less popular but I don’t think there is much chance of a popular uprising.

hoskinsgoalatswansea wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 5:00 am

Really?! Whilst I agree that a coup seems unlikely, for you to suggest that Putin has rock solid support from everybody, apart from maybe the military, seems a stretch to say the least.

Well, the only thing we have to go on are Russian opinion polls, which are at about 80% in favour

What Russia has managed to do is completely shut down all protests and control the Russian media narrative

I don't think my guess is that far out tbf!

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 7:28 am

Well, the only thing we have to go on are Russian opinion polls, which are at about 80% in favour

What Russia has managed to do is completely shut down all protests and control the Russian media narrative

I don't think my guess is that far out tbf!

I guess it’s hard to exactly quantify in a state like Putinist Russia. Is it unqualified support and approval based on reality? Or is it a more tacit agreement based on a carefully tended propaganda machine?

While it’s not in the same ball park as Soviet era USSR (which was so bludgeoning and omnipresent I fell asleep during a conference on the subject at the IWM when I was studying it!) the level of state control in Russia is, compared to western democracies, difficult for people to wrap their heads around.

What we can be more certain of is there is precious little in the way of opposition that is organised or effective in any real way.

RicardoMontalban wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 8:52 am

I guess it’s hard to exactly quantify in a state like Putinist Russia. Is it unqualified support and approval based on reality? Or is it a more tacit agreement based on a carefully tended propaganda machine?

While it’s not in the same ball park as Soviet era USSR (which was so bludgeoning and omnipresent I fell asleep during a conference on the subject at the IWM when I was studying it!) the level of state control in Russia is, compared to western democracies, difficult for people to wrap their heads around.

What we can be more certain of is there is precious little in the way of opposition that is organised or effective in any real way.

I did Soviet Russia as part of my degree, but the key with Russia is that there experiences with democracy have been few and far between, and both could be qualified as "failures". In both case (just after WWI and after the Cold War), Russia suffered catastrophic losses of land, prestige and economic collapse. In Russian eyes, they yearn for a strong man (a Tsar essentially) who will make sure that none of this happens

Putins entire power and support base is essentially reliant on the economic issues of the 80s and 90s not happening, and though we are not there yet, with the western sanctions and the very visible withdrawal of Western and Asian companies then its just a matter of time before everything that Putin stands for (ie economic stability, reasonable standard of living for Russians, respect worldwide for Russia etc) starts to look more than a little iffy

But we are a long way from that

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 9:16 am

I did Soviet Russia as part of my degree, but the key with Russia is that there experiences with democracy have been few and far between, and both could be qualified as "failures". In both case (just after WWI and after the Cold War), Russia suffered catastrophic losses of land, prestige and economic collapse. In Russian eyes, they yearn for a strong man (a Tsar essentially) who will make sure that none of this happens

Putins entire power and support base is essentially reliant on the economic issues of the 80s and 90s not happening, and though we are not there yet, with the western sanctions and the very visible withdrawal of Western and Asian companies then its just a matter of time before everything that Putin stands for (ie economic stability, reasonable standard of living for Russians, respect worldwide for Russia etc) starts to look more than a little iffy

But we are a long way from that

Likewise, though I did more on the bit from 1918-1945, but like you say Russia’s experiences with democracy are extremely limited and coincide with perhaps their most unstable periods. The series of podcasts that the rest is history did on the road to Putin were fascinating.

Very interesting

Mikhail Khodaryonok writing about the Ukraine situation, 20 days BEFORE the Russian invasion

He was absolutely spot on in pretty much everything


https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status ... 6821460993

RicardoMontalban wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 9:24 am

Likewise, though I did more on the bit from 1918-1945, but like you say Russia’s experiences with democracy are extremely limited and coincide with perhaps their most unstable periods. The series of podcasts that the rest is history did on the road to Putin were fascinating.

I'm about 200 episodes behind I think (like too many podcasts and I'm behind in all of them!)

Love the rest is history (I have all of Tom Hollands books on Greece and Rome)

Wonder whether the population will feel is sense of shame in years to come if they find out the reality of what has happened. The Germans did even though they were fed propaganda and couldn’t speak out against the regime. Their level of genocide and sadism was on a different level of course but there are some similarities. Some of the poplulation must see what journalists and commentators that have fled are saying about the regime and question it along with number of body bags returning.

Boss Hogg wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 9:38 am

Wonder whether the population will feel is sense of shame in years to come if they find out the reality of what has happened. The Germans did even though they were fed propaganda and couldn’t speak out against the regime. Their level of genocide and sadism was on a different level of course but there are some similarities. Some of the poplulation must see what journalists and commentators that have fled are saying about the regime and question it along with number of body bags returning.

No guarantee at all

They aren't admitting to losses, the Ukrainians have hundred of Russian bodies in fridge units (trailers) for return after the war is over

Journalists who are at the front as essentially just reporting what they are allowed to see (crucially that destroyed Russian tank whose turret was blown fifty feet in the air was filmed by a Chinese TV crew, or I doubt we'd ever have seen it)

What is pretty clear though (through telegram accounts) is that Russian soldiers are remarkably free with their phones about what they talk about and show (which is a sign of bad training and discipline btw) and that might be getting through to soldiers families.

But the wider population?

Not yet

Culmclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 17, 2022 7:27 am

The most independent polling from the Levada Centre which is not supported by the regime suggests that Putin still has an 83% approval rating with 81% supporting the military action in Ukraine. Difficult to get your head round from a western perspective but what the Russian people is told is diametrically opposed to the news we get in the west. Putin’s popularity peaked during the military exploits in Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014) at 88/89%. His rating dropped by a third over the course of the long Chechen conflict so there is a chance that a long war will see him become less popular but I don’t think there is much chance of a popular uprising.

I wouldn't put much store in the Russian opinion polls. 83% may be just giving the "correct" answer to the question, pretty sure if people could exercise their true opinion (safely), of Putin and the situation with Ukraine, it would be a lot lower.

Article on the Black Sea blockade and its potential effects for the world economy

https://samf.substack.com/p/breaking-th ... dium=email