A good analysis of where the war may be going.
Couple of things from it, I thought interesting.
The use of the creation of a famine for negotiations.
Putin cutting gas supplies to Europe by 60% means they are having to use stocks now, so they will not have surplus for winter.
The price of energy has given Russia over a trillion Rubles surplus.

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status ... 09hQ5qwxPQ

Graph which shows gas stocks in the EU. Russia is being cleaver here, prices will be crazy come winter. Think he believes we will then give him parts of Ukraine.

Interesting short video on ship insurance, well on Russian oil ship insurance.

https://youtu.be/52qDvtmhgC8

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/15 ... 8793603072

German military deliveries to Ukraine

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Ukraine’s military: Russian forces suffer “significant losses” after Ukrainian strike on Snake Island.

According to Ukraine’s Operational Command South, the Ukrainian military operation on the island continues, and the details cannot be disclosed until its completion.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... MelZ5nfTvg

OSINTtechnical: Russian forces hit a Ukrainian M777 position with counterbattery fire, destroying at least 2 artillery pieces and stockpiled ammunition.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... MelZ5nfTvg

NEW YORK TIMES: Russia’s ruble hit a seven-year high, cementing its status as the world’s best-performing currency.

It has gained about 35% so far this year, and has more than doubled from a low after the invasion of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1539 ... MelZ5nfTvg

KYIV Independent: Business Insider: Germany blocks Slovak tank supplies to Ukraine.

Slovakia reached a deal in April to supply Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine provided that Germany replaces them with 30 Leopard 2A4 tanks.

However, Germany later offered 15 tanks instead of 30, preventing Slovakia from delivering T-72 tanks to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been repeatedly lambasted for blocking weapons supplies to Ukraine and breaking his promises to help the war-torn country.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... MelZ5nfTvg

REUTERS: Russia tells Lithuania: your citizens will feel the pain over Kaliningrad

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1539 ... MelZ5nfTvg

ROB LEE (re-tweet) of HR SUTTON: BREAKING***

Russian controlled platform still burning today after Ukrainian attack yesterday. Slick seen.

This confirms earlier observation of likely slick using lower-resolution satellite imagery. OSINT

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... MelZ5nfTvg

PHILLIPS Orien: Great map showing how little territory has changed hands in Ukraine the last month.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... MelZ5nfTvg

karatekid wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:46 pm

Propaganda? Would the SAS really be any where near? All negative comments from someone fighting as a volunteer on the front line? I expect this guy would have served in the US army if true and wouldn't use the internet to spout this sort of negativity. He would know better, surely.

His prose is very unusual for someone supposedly from the USA, suspiciously like it may not be genuine.

karatekid wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:46 pm

Propaganda? Would the SAS really be any where near? All negative comments from someone fighting as a volunteer on the front line? I expect this guy would have served in the US army if true and wouldn't use the internet to spout this sort of negativity. He would know better, surely.

For me the article reads as propaganda but let’s be clear 100% Blue on Blue/ so called friendly fire incidents will be occurring and I imagine it will be a regular thing. for a lot of the AO it will be near impossible to deconflict friendly and enemy locations I think for both sides. I also thank it is missing 2 very important letters “EX” I don’t think there was a suggestion of the guy who was killed, if it happened, was a current serving member of the SAS!

apologies if this has been posted - Ukrainian's smashing a drone into a Russian oil refinery
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539 ... wZtBtJwqWg

ELINT NEWs: (As Vegas post above): Ukraine implementing Iran-style strategy of targeting energy infrastructure with suicide drones. A common occurrence in places like Saudi Arabia where Ababil-2 (Qasef-2K) and Shahed-136 drones, as well as Samad variants have hit oil refineries

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... vzZKuJ01ug

A long but amazing video made by an LNR trooper who was working at a Russian ammo depot that was hit on June 16th.

A bit of a slow burn at first, but it really heats up. Sorry, couldn't resist. It really is jaw dropping, just the sound. Can't believe they lived really.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdGA88Eo8vs

Edit: Also, kids these days will film anything it seems. And in this case I'm grateful.

Russian and Russian-backed separatist forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine have suffered heavy casualties, according to UK intelligence officials.

They estimate the Donetsk militia alone has lost 55% of its original force.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61891462

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:40 pm

A long but amazing video made by an LNR trooper who was working at a Russian ammo depot that was hit on June 16th.

A bit of a slow burn at first, but it really heats up. Sorry, couldn't resist. It really is jaw dropping, just the sound. Can't believe they lived really.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdGA88Eo8vs

Edit: Also, kids these days will film anything it seems. And in this case I'm grateful.

Bloody hell!

I guess next time they are caught at an ammunition depot and it gets hit they will run a bit further away than just around the corner

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:40 pm

A long but amazing video made by an LNR trooper who was working at a Russian ammo depot that was hit on June 16th.

A bit of a slow burn at first, but it really heats up. Sorry, couldn't resist. It really is jaw dropping, just the sound. Can't believe they lived really.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdGA88Eo8vs

Edit: Also, kids these days will film anything it seems. And in this case I'm grateful.

Scary, a translation of their talk would be good (a lot of expletives I'd think).
I've seen a few ammo strikes on screen from this war but only filmed from afar; this really brings home the huge destruction/ danger to life. You'd need a lot of luck to escape from that amount of explosions, flying anywhere/everywhere projectiles and fire/chaos.

Continued thanks to all contributors.

Would just like to underline how splendid the Institute for the Study of War updates are.

Very detailed with first-class maps.


https://www.understandingwar.org/

LeadBelly wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:44 pm

Scary, a translation of their talk would be good (a lot of expletives I'd think).
I've seen a few ammo strikes on screen from this war but only filmed from afar; this really brings home the huge destruction/ danger to life. You'd need a lot of luck to escape from that amount of explosions, flying anywhere/everywhere projectiles and fire/chaos.

I wonder if Putin, Lavrov or any of the other Russion leaders see video scenes like this. What must they think?

What happened to the Russian Syrian recruits. We don't seem to have heard much about them. Have they deployed?

The only item I found on a trawl through Google was dated 27th April indicating they aren't involved yet:

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/w ... fforts-yet

Hipper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:40 pm

What happened to the Russian Syrian recruits. We don't seem to have heard much about them. Have they deployed?

The only item I found on a trawl through Google was dated 27th April indicating they aren't involved yet:

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/w ... fforts-yet

No idea on that one.

I do appreciate this is patently obvious, but watching some Russian war films of late including the excellent - albeit with heavily "propragandarised" content - "Liberation" series of films directed by Yuri Ozerov, the viewer is struck by the multi-national make-up of the Soviet Red Army. Today, it's Russia by itself although there seem to be rumours about Belarus opening a second front.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... chief.html

Otherwise and apologies if this chap's tweets have already been mentioned, more excellent maps can be found via this address:


https://twitter.com/Nrg8000

Hipper wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:40 pm

What happened to the Russian Syrian recruits. We don't seem to have heard much about them. Have they deployed?

The only item I found on a trawl through Google was dated 27th April indicating they aren't involved yet:

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/w ... fforts-yet

From memory. Russia welcomed the Syrians with a big media fanfare… the Syrians arrived and had their moment of TV fame… when the Syrians realised that Ukrainians opposed the Russian aggression masses deserted into Belarus and made their way back home… last I heard on it was that volunteers slowed to a trickle when those returning soldiers told their comrades of the real situation.

We stop hearing about Syrians…

ROB LEE: Ukrainian soldiers are using an inflatable boat and a line to cross the Siverskyi Donets River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Photos from June 19.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ROB LEE: The capture of Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka by Russian forces puts any Ukrainian forces left in the Zolote salient at serious risk of being encircled.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ROB LEE: Video of a train operated by (Russian) Western Military District railway troops in Ukraine with Ka-52 and Mi-8AMTSh helicopters.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ROB LEE: Russian MoD video of Ka-52 helicopters in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ROB LEE: Video of a Ukrainian tank in Severodonetsk.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

REUTERS: UK announces new tranche of trade sanctions against Russia

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ROB LEE: Video of a Russian S-300V-series 9A83-series TELAR in Luhansk Oblast. Part of the "O" grouping.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1539 ... hFqgAv24hQ

ELINT NEWS (retweet): HIMARS have arrived to Ukraine.
Thank you to my colleague and friend SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III for these powerful tools!
Summer will be hot for russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/sta ... hFqgAv24hQ

KYIV INDEPENDENT: Czech Republic to stop issuing visas to Russians, Belarusians.

The Czech government adopted a proposal by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to stop issuing visas to Russian and Belarusian citizens, except in humanitarian cases.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... hFqgAv24hQ

BBC WORLD: Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa meet for annual Brics summit

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... hFqgAv24hQ

NEXTA (from Daily Mirror story): Former Putin bodyguard who carried his nuclear briefcase tried to commit suicide

A 53-years-old Vadim Zimin, retired colonel in the Federal Security Service, who had been in charge of the "nuclear briefcase" was found in his house with a gunshot wound.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... hFqgAv24hQ

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:06 pm

BBC WORLD: Leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa meet for annual Brics summit

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/153 ... hFqgAv24hQ

Not surprised the worlds in a mess,looks like first thing they do is have a game of ring a ring rosies.

CENTRE FOR WAR and DIPLOMACY: CWD member and LancasterUni lecturer Basil Germond has written about recent developments in Ukraine, focusing on maritime dimensions of the conflict, moves and strategies, and the advantages of sea power.

https://twitter.com/cwdlancaster/status ... IWiydxG2rg

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:12 pm

NEXTA (from Daily Mirror story): Former Putin bodyguard who carried his nuclear briefcase tried to commit suicide

A 53-years-old Vadim Zimin, retired colonel in the Federal Security Service, who had been in charge of the "nuclear briefcase" was found in his house with a gunshot wound.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... hFqgAv24hQ

All I will say is, he was a firearm trained person and he missed himself.

No wonder the Russian army is doing so badly in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/statu ... 5_zsw&s=19

This video

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:13 pm

CENTRE FOR WAR and DIPLOMACY: CWD member and LancasterUni lecturer Basil Germond has written about recent developments in Ukraine, focusing on maritime dimensions of the conflict, moves and strategies, and the advantages of sea power.

https://twitter.com/cwdlancaster/status ... IWiydxG2rg

Not so sure that 'sea power will eventually contribute to Moscow’s strategic failure'. It will and is changing things though which will mean Russia will align it's trade away from Europe/The West and towards the south and east.

It's true that they are restricted in the Baltic and Black Sea, and therefore The Med., but they still have the Arctic (getting warmer) and Pacific coasts to operate from. They also have a massive border, untouchable by the West, with China. If insurance and the like becomes an issue they can set up their own system.

In any case, they seem to be doing deals with African countries and India and I'm sure these countries will find a way to ship their goods.

If he's including naval sea power, Russia has never been a real ocean going naval threat despite all the bluster.

Ukraine has withdrawn from Severdonestk

Makes sense

The Russians are using their best troops (Spetsnaz etc) to take each sector of the front, after pulverising the area with heavy artillery, and then just repeating the next same tactics at the next city/town - at this rate it will take them months to clear the Donbass, and at the cost of horrendous casualties amongst their best units

German MP (I think)

Needs translating, but its essentially a fund for Ukraine and what weapons German could (would? My google translation not clear!) provide

https://twitter.com/MarcusFaber/status/ ... 9748059137

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/car-bomb-plan ... 49549.html
As has been mentioned earlier,bombing areas into submission is the easy bit, what happens after to all occupiers is the difficult bit.

REUTERS confirming the Ukrainian withdrawal from Severdonestk:

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... _7qvTN2nrA

ROB LEE: What looks like a Russian R-149MA1 command and staff vehicle destroyed by Ukraine's 14th Mechanized Brigade.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1540 ... _7qvTN2nrA

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3278477313

Ukrainian Su-25 in action

The stress levels flying those things in a combat situation must be off the scale

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:34 pm

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3278477313

Ukrainian Su-25 in action

The stress levels flying those things in a combat situation must be off the scale

That footage is nothing short of amazing

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainians soldiers entering the outskirts of Kherson. Good news if true.

The Russians really are crap.

bfcjg wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:20 pm

Screenshot_20220624-191806_Samsung Internet.jpg

The Russians really are crap.

Feed the Goat and he will score

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 6741332997

First pics of an HIMARS strike on a Russian HQ with analysis