Quite a bit of talk that Russia is gearing up for a large offensive in the east in the next few weeks. Supposedly the half of the mobilized men they didn't throw to the front untrained are now 'trained' and ready to use. Sounds to me like they're going to waste a large chunk of men and equipment for marginal gains consisting mainly of ruins and will exhaust themselves just as the latest aid from the West arrives in the form of tanks and other gear and will leave themselves vulnerable to a big reversal.

But what to I know?

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:30 pm

Quite a bit of talk that Russia is gearing up for a large offensive in the east in the next few weeks. Supposedly the half of the mobilized men they didn't throw to the front untrained are now 'trained' and ready to use. Sounds to me like they're going to waste a large chunk of men and equipment for marginal gains consisting mainly of ruins and will exhaust themselves just as the latest aid from the West arrives in the form of tanks and other gear and will leave themselves vulnerable to a big reversal.

But what to I know?

This would be surprising, things tend to quieten down as co-ordinated movement becomes almost impossible in the Ukraine winter. I’d expect any large action to wait until spring now… but it was exactly the ploy Washington used to catch out the Hessian (British Allies) at Trenton, which effectively saved the American army from disintegrating at Valley Forge during the American Revolution.

Will be on the anniversary 24 Feb, in many people's opinion, will be before any of the new weapons arrive and before they're even trained to use them, therefore from a Russian point of view it makes sense to do it now before they arrive

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:49 pm

This would be surprising, things tend to quieten down as co-ordinated movement becomes almost impossible in the Ukraine winter. I’d expect any large action to wait until spring now… but it was exactly the ploy Washington used to catch out the Hessian (British Allies) at Trenton, which effectively saved the American army from disintegrating at Valley Forge during the American Revolution.

The idea I believe is to strike while the ground is frozen, before the mud season in March, before the new reinforcements of materials arrives from the West and as Kate suggests, marking the anniversary of the invasion.

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:12 pm

The idea I believe is to strike while the ground is frozen, before the mud season in March, before the new reinforcements of materials arrives from the West and as Kate suggests, marking the anniversary of the invasion.

Interesting, it would have to be overwhelming to have any chance of success. It would suggest a real desperation, a couple of weeks to sweep Ukraine aside seems as fanciful as the initial invasion expectation, owes now… so long ago. Looks like another massive humiliation for Russia in the offing.

Agree, have been in Western Kazakhstan many times and it's the thaws that are the worst, if it's frozen then much better for moving/logistics.

That’s cutting it a bit fine. The Ukrainian tankers are already here in the Uk being trained on using the Challenger2 tank. It has been suggested that the 14 tanks that are being provided will be in Ukraine by March. Let’s hope the 600 Brimstones that we have just supplied stop the Russians in their tracks (pun intended) if they start an offensive prior to the arrival of any meaningful numbers of NATO MBTs.

March will be very bad for any offensive by anyone due to the mud, particularly an army trying to keep up with tanks (that may or may not be able to maneuver as desired in that mud) If they load up with bodies and push at multiple fronts across what is a huge line they will probably break through somewhere and call that a victory, remembering, they don't seem to bothered how many are killed to make the gains. Whereas the Ukrainians do care and will pull back, therefore i do see some Russian gains coming in Feb and early March, then it be a wait until late April and May where I would expect the Ukrainians to utilize there new weapons and regain, plus more more.

Interesting article on the EU race away from Russian gas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... SApp_Other

Interesting article, I commented earlier in the thread about Russia wanting to blackmail the West with grain as they watch their gas income dwindle hence their desperation to conquer Ukraine, the West cannot let that happen and it looks as though the arms are now flowing to ensure at least a draw.

Gas spot prices dropped to about €55 a megawatt hour (MWh) on Monday, a level last seen before the start of the war in September 2021, down from €330/MWh at the end of last August. Have people seen the evidence of this beyond filling their cars up?

Basically tells the whole story but what's of interest to me is how in the same time the whole of the EU managed to reduce it's actual usage quite dramatically, which in and of itself tells a story of needless usage in many places. Wastage is something we can all work on, along with changing the dynamics like many here have by moving to different methods for their own power consumption. I certainly hope the trend continues and when this terrible war is over there is no mass change to go back to how things were when the inevitable Russian Oil & Gas becomes available again.

The main takes from the report is the EU is down to 12% of Russian gas.
Germany has 80% of its storage full and they are all sharing gas.
From a Zeihan podcast I understand the US is shipping large amounts of LPG which we then send to the EU using existing pipelines.

Yes I can see prices changing as I have agile octopus which pays me wholesale prices for export electric.

It has come down a lot.

Peak prices got as high as £1,05 per kWh.

Now it’s a lot lower.

https://twitter.com/NorwayMFA/status/16 ... 6950214656

This is an incredible levels of support

But its also very pragmatic, a defeated Russia will not be a threat to states such as Norway, and that is key to why the states in Eastern and Northern Europe are amongst the biggest supporters Ukraine has

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 2207187968

Apparently Starmer has called for seized Russian assets to be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Good call it has to be said

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:17 pm

The main takes from the report is the EU is down to 12% of Russian gas.
Germany has 80% of its storage full and they are all sharing gas.
From a Zeihan podcast I understand the US is shipping large amounts of LPG which we then send to the EU using existing pipelines.
63CDBB0D-B3D0-4B98-B66F-503B6E6597F8.png

Just to note it's LNG and not LPG (as far as I'm aware)

Some interesting comments coming out reference providing Ukraine with Planes following Zelenskys visit to parliament today. Not sure what we have to provided them if honest maybe we would be used a means to source aircraft rather than give them from out inventory not sure.

The only options I can think of if we were to provide is below:

Harrier GR9(suspect they were all sold to the US or are broken up by now) if not hugely flexible AC could be an asset

Tornado GR 4 been out of service a while now and I have no idea how many we have left that would be serviceable to fly combat missions, if we have very good Fighter Bomber which would be comparable with many of the AC in use today within Ukraine

Tornado F1 been out of service less time than the GR4 but wasn’t really the best and only used for AD or SEAD roles no idea if we have any left that are airworthy or if they would be worthwhile

Hawks no idea if we have any but I know a number were sold around the wor

Some interesting comments coming out reference providing Ukraine with Planes following Zelenskys visit to parliament today. Not sure what we have to provided them if honest maybe we would be used a means to source aircraft rather than give them from out inventory not sure.

The only options I can think of if we were to provide is below:

Harrier GR9(suspect they were all sold to the US or are broken up by now) if not hugely flexible AC could be an asset

Tornado GR 4 been out of service a while now and I have no idea how many we have left that would be serviceable to fly combat missions, if we have very good Fighter Bomber which would be comparable with many of the AC in use today within Ukraine

Tornado F1 been out of service less time than the GR4 but wasn’t really the best and only used for AD or SEAD roles no idea if we have any left that are airworthy or if they would be worthwhile

Hawks no idea if we have any but I know a number were sold around the world as FGA fighters.

Early tranche Typhoons no idea if There are any left but the early tranches were mainly AD variants with FGA capabilities introduced later on around tranche 3 or 4

I would be shocked if we provided any of the latest Typhoons but if we did they would prove to be a real asset I guess.

I would imagine if we give any AC it would probably be Tornado GR4 and or maybe early tranche Tyhoons.

I have no idea what happened there for me to have 2 posts clearly I somehow clicked on submit halfway through somehow

Well hopefully you Brits will be the first to give modern planes as you were with modern tanks and show the rest of the world the way..

On the Typhoons

Doesn't sound great

https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status ... 0459411457

KateR wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:58 pm

Just to note it's LNG and not LPG (as far as I'm aware)

Absolutely right.

LNG = liquified natural gas is natural gas (predominantly methane, CH4, with some mixture of ethane, C2H6) that has been cooled down to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transport. It takes up about 1/600th the volume of natural gas in the gaseous state (at standard conditions for temperature and pressure).

LPG = Liquefied petroleum gas is a fuel gas which contains a flammable mixture of hydrocarbon gases, specifically propane, propylene, butylene, isobutane and n-butane. LPG is used as a fuel gas in heating appliances, cooking equipment, and vehicles. It is increasingly used as an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant. Varieties of LPG that are bought and sold include mixes that are mostly propane (C3H8), mostly butane (C4H10).

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:52 pm

On the Typhoons

Doesn't sound great

https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status ... 0459411457

It may be we will be used as an intermediary to get some AC, not sure we will no doubt see what we have in long term storage if anything soon enough. ideally it would be Harrier as long as there was AD aircraft to cover it this would be the most flexible option not sure we kept any though and how much would it cost to get some back off the US. Another option would be Jaguars but these were withdraw from
Service much earlier than the Tornado and I have no idea if any would be flight worthy or useful for this. As that Twitter suggests though unless we find Harriers all the Aircraft are reliant on a serviceable runway

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:24 pm

It may be we will be used as an intermediary to get some AC, not sure we will no doubt see what we have in long term storage if anything soon enough. ideally it would be Harrier as long as there was AD aircraft to cover it this would be the most flexible option not sure we kept any though and how much would it cost to get some back off the US. Another option would be Jaguars but these were withdraw from
Service much earlier than the Tornado and I have no idea if any would be flight worthy or useful for this. As that Twitter suggests though unless we find Harriers all the Aircraft are reliant on a serviceable runway

It sounds like we can't actually provide anything other than training

That is fine, but as the author says, they need aircraft that don't need huge airbases to stage from

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:31 pm

It sounds like we can't actually provide anything other than training

That is fine, but as the author says, they need aircraft that don't need huge airbases to stage from

I think most AC have some flexibility when it comes to Take off and landing doesn’t necessarily need to be a large permanent airbase long stretch of straight road would probably work as well and temporary runways can be built reasonably quickly. but I agree the western planes do seem to be less flexible than the Russian ones when it comes to where it can and can’t take off from/ land on.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/abused-russia ... 44392.html
More infighting.

How is it that aircraft which were too risky to fly in this current war are now considered worth using? What has changed?

Hipper wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:57 pm

How is it that aircraft which were too risky to fly in this current war are now considered worth using? What has changed?

I don't think we've reached that stage yet to be honest

Russia can't threaten Ukraine control of the air, and hasn't been able to since Day 1

So they would essentially not a priority

Tanks/APCs/SAMs/AA/Supply/ammo/infrastructure/radars/signit/repairs all far more important at the moment

https://twitter.com/Joey_Galvin/status/ ... 4334659585

I think if the core of your argument that NATO/US was involved in blowing up the Nordstream pipelines, then naming ships and aircraft that weren't there or at the relevant times does rather suggest that you might not have done your research

Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 2:00 pm

Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream

Also Biden did say they would have no problem doing it if it came to it.

Move to 1:45 for Victoria Newlands threat to Nordstream/Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAiZvKouZRw

Mot seen it posted but the Russians tried their much promised campaign in the last 2 days near vulhedar. It did not go well.

This is the supposedly front line marine inf division that got annilahted.

https://twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1 ... y5BRA&s=19

Goalposts wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:37 pm

Mot seen it posted but the Russians tried their much promised campaign in the last 2 days near vulhedar. It did not go well.

This is the supposedly front line marine inf division that got annilahted.

https://twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1 ... y5BRA&s=19

General assaults all along the line from there up to Kremmina

Would imagine the Ukrainian tactics won't change, they will withdraw when threatened with encirclement, and continue to hit Russian logistics and C & C

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 2:00 pm

Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream

That was an interesting read. As a US citizen, I hope it's true really.

My problem is it reads like a Tom Clancy novel. It's a great story, but she doesn't present any evidence other then statements members of the Biden administration have said where they seem happy about it. Honestly if it were true, I'd be more worried about it then ever if she could get hard evidence. That would be a total failure of security.

In 20 years time, if I live that long, I hope it all comes out. I'm sure it's not a mystery to the entire world, just something that hasn't leaked yet. Amazingly if it was a US action. Our congressmen/women have very loose lips.

Goalposts wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:37 pm

Mot seen it posted but the Russians tried their much promised campaign in the last 2 days near vulhedar. It did not go well.

This is the supposedly front line marine inf division that got annilahted.

https://twitter.com/tomaburque/status/1 ... y5BRA&s=19

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces resumed assault operations on the outskirts of Vuhledar.[29] A Ukrainian reserve officer also reported that the majority ethnic Tatar volunteer battalion "Alga" of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rdArmy Corps) fought near Vuhledar on February 6.[30] The reserve officer suggested that the use of volunteer battalions in this area indicates that the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades, which were previously active in the area, sustained insurmountable losses and are being replaced by other formations.[31] Recently posted footage from the Vuhledar area shows a defeated Russian mechanized formation of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade that lost 13 main battle tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles in a single engagement - about half a Russian tank battalion.[32] The footage shows the Russian formation driving in a column displaying poor tactics and a lack of learning from previous Russian tactical failures.[33] Separate drone footage published on February 8 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian forces approaching Vuhledar.[34] Geolocated footage published February 7 also shows reported elements of the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) striking Ukrainian positions on the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar.[35]


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ary-9-2023

About two fifths of the way down the page.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status ... 3049721859

Good video on Western tanks and their potential impact

Elbarad wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 4:18 pm

That was an interesting read. As a US citizen, I hope it's true really.

My problem is it reads like a Tom Clancy novel. It's a great story, but she doesn't present any evidence other then statements members of the Biden administration have said where they seem happy about it. Honestly if it were true, I'd be more worried about it then ever if she could get hard evidence. That would be a total failure of security.

In 20 years time, if I live that long, I hope it all comes out. I'm sure it's not a mystery to the entire world, just something that hasn't leaked yet. Amazingly if it was a US action. Our congressmen/women have very loose lips.

If its true, then this isn't an accurate report of how they did it

(see my post up above)

KateR wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:58 pm

Just to note it's LNG and not LPG (as far as I'm aware)

Apologies if I got the acronym incorrect.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 4:23 pm

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status ... 3049721859

Good video on Western tanks and their potential impact

Good video, thanks.

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 2:00 pm

Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blo ... ershs-pipe

I found this article. Can’t say I’m taking all this at face value. But another interesting read.

1882Clarets1882 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:15 pm

Screenshot_20230210-131939_Chrome.jpg

JFK got a Pulitzer Prize, it launched his political career… Father Joe had drafted in a friend to ghost write it for him. The Pulitzer has been a questioned honour for many years because of its lack of investigation into sources and methods. It is in effect an award for being ‘well written’ to many eyes; and why it receives so much less attention than other awards.

France , Brazil , Canada , UK USA advise their citizens to leave Belarus and russia immediately.

Lot of speculation as to what’s happening, but both russia and Belarus passed a law recently allowing foreigners to be conscripted into the army.

Build up of military on border with ukraine and recent Moldovan govt resignation may be haveing impact.

Only 3 open crossings remain with Belarus and the eu at the moment if they close, economically Belarus will nosedive

I’d genuinely question why any sensible ‘western’ citizen was in those countries anyway.

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 11, 2023 1:06 pm

JFK got a Pulitzer Prize, it launched his political career… Father Joe had drafted in a friend to ghost write it for him. The Pulitzer has been a questioned honour for many years because of its lack of investigation into sources and methods. It is in effect an award for being ‘well written’ to many eyes; and why it receives so much less attention than other awards.

While you’re absolutely correct re: Pulitzer , the investigative piece by Hersh makes interesting reading . I’m likely the most anti con theory guy on earth ,but the article should be given a fair hearing , judged objectively and answered “ in public “ . The msm seem to be studiously ignoring any digging or just shouting it down in the US. If it’s complete bullshine then that’s good, and it does read a touch melodramatic,but the silence on who actually did blow it up is a touch concerning IMO.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1625887238134398981

Estimations that Russia has lost 50% of its T-72s modern (by NATO standards) tanks

Up to 2/3rds of its T-80s and T-90s

https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1625921442029109267

Ukrainian tankers training on Leopold 2 in Poland

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-marine-s ... 56985.html

Hard to imagine Russia can keep this up for long......

Taffy on the wing wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:53 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-marine-s ... 56985.html

Hard to imagine Russia can keep this up for long......

Sadly plenty more to replace them as it stands.