AlargeClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:47 pm

Must say I’m suprised UKR are seemingly ? Sending more troops to hold Bakhmut ? The media and even the Russians seem to have all played down the actual significance of the town. Is this really a strategic town ? Or are UKR “simply “ holding the area before the serious ordnance and ammo arrives

Sadly it looks like a game of who blinks first loses, both sides are taking horrendous casualties over a pointless city. I think Ukraine are gambling on the Russian offensive culminating soon as all attacks do eventually. Once that happens assuming they can I would imagine the plan would be to punch through and push them back.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:03 pm

Sadly it looks like a game of who blinks first loses, both sides are taking horrendous casualties over a pointless city. I think Ukraine are gambling on the Russian offensive culminating soon as all attacks do eventually. Once that happens assuming they can I would imagine the plan would be to punch through and push them back.

You can see how much its costing Russia

Its absolutely no coincidence that we are seeing the 1960s and earlier tech in pics

They are running out of anything vaguely modern, and the Ukrainians haven't even got the Bradleys, Challengers, Abrahams or Leopards yet

I bet the Russian troops that aren't in Ukraine have been ruthlessly cannibalised of any remotely modern equipment

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:03 pm

Sadly it looks like a game of who blinks first loses, both sides are taking horrendous casualties over a pointless city. I think Ukraine are gambling on the Russian offensive culminating soon as all attacks do eventually. Once that happens assuming they can I would imagine the plan would be to punch through and push them back.

Agree
I also think they want the Russians to have to keep punching themselves out. There's next to no chance that Russia will push on after this, they'll take a break sit back and regroup.
The longer Ukraine can drag this out, the weaker Russia will be. With the new armaments, newly trained troops, Ukraine could push on themselves. Not around Bakhmut, but towards Savatove and cut the supply line for the Russian front line.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:32 pm

You can see how much its costing Russia

Its absolutely no coincidence that we are seeing the 1960s and earlier tech in pics

They are running out of anything vaguely modern, and the Ukrainians haven't even got the Bradleys, Challengers, Abrahams or Leopards yet

I bet the Russian troops that aren't in Ukraine have been ruthlessly cannibalised of any remotely modern equipment

100% the more they kill now the less they have to deal with when they go on the offensive in the next few weeks/ months. It is just senseless though I think both are losing more men a day than Britain did in the entirety of Iraq and Afghan combined.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:39 pm

100% the more they kill now the less they have to deal with when they go on the offensive in the next few weeks/ months. It is just senseless though I think both are losing more men a day than Britain did in the entirety of Iraq and Afghan combined.

Oh, its quite completely bonkers

You always wondered when you read about Russian tactics in WWII that surely they can't be that bad and then you see them at Bakhmut and (especially) Vuledar

All I can think is that the pressure must be be putting on the Generals to keep advancing regardless, and as the quality of troops and equipment goes down, the casualties shoot up, and pressure intensives

Ukraine must be confident that their tactics are worth it though, or they would have withdrawn, they can afford to give up territory around there because the cities behind are just as fortified

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:03 pm

Sadly it looks like a game of who blinks first loses, both sides are taking horrendous casualties over a pointless city. I think Ukraine are gambling on the Russian offensive culminating soon as all attacks do eventually. Once that happens assuming they can I would imagine the plan would be to punch through and push them back.

Apparently It’s not a pointless city, a report on Radio 4 stated that it’s the highest ground for some distance and also the roads that lead from and through it seem to be an important factor.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 3684728834

Video of the Su-27 crashing into the US Drone

Fair play to the pilot. Took some balls

shanghaiclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:44 am

Fair play to the pilot. Took some balls

Not when they’ll arrest and torture your family if you refuse.

Also how good a pilot are you really when you crash into something that could cause structural/fatal damage to your aircraft?

Talking of planes, Slovakia has confirmed its sending 13 Mig-29s to Ukraine, on top of Poland sending 4 Mig-29s yesterday

Its actually a pretty good tactic of the weaker/smaller NATO members if we are being honest, as the US has surplus F-16s and the supply chain of Mig-29s parts and servicing is problematic (to put it mildly) going forward

Depending on how long the war goes on for, then over time you could see all ex-Warsaw Pact equipment held by NATO members going to Ukraine and replaced by more modern NATO equipment

https://twitter.com/haskologlu/status/1 ... 6037078017

Turkey to ratify Finlands NATO membership

Sweden a bit more problematical, but Finland is the one that really shows just how much they have lost strategically

Arrest warrant issued for Putin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64992727

Falcon wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:34 pm

Arrest warrant issued for Putin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64992727

For those in the know, how significant is this?

Penwortham_Claret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:28 pm

For those in the know, how significant is this?

Not very Russia hasn’t signed up to the ICC and he can only get arrested if he travels to a country that has. I would imagine none of them will be on his travel itinerary for the foreseeable.

Penwortham_Claret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:28 pm

For those in the know, how significant is this?

Unlikely to have any real effects inside Russia, but it does mean that Putin is stuck in Russia for the rest of his life

That could have an effect, certainly if its widened to include more people close to him

They won't like being stuck in Russia and unable to do their foreign trips to spend their stolen cash

Lancasterclaret

".... Putin is stuck in Russia for the rest of his life.."

Do you want a bet on that?

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:46 pm

Lancasterclaret

".... Putin is stuck in Russia for the rest of his life.."

Do you want a bet on that?

I suppose it depends on how the war goes. I know if I were the next Russian to come into power, he'd either take a trip out of a window or I'd quickly hand him over to the Hague to get back into the good graces of the world, regardless of my own future plans.

Radizan Karadzic probably thought he was safe as well

Lancasterclaret

You didn't answer the question.

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:24 pm

Lancasterclaret

You didn't answer the question.

he can't visit something like 122 countries that's for sure

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:46 pm

Lancasterclaret

".... Putin is stuck in Russia for the rest of his life.."

Do you want a bet on that?

Well not 100% stuck, but as has been said 122 countries he cannot go to.

Big propaganda blow for him.

Think we’re all best not responding or engaging with certain posters on this thread if we want to keep it the brilliant source of information it has been.

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 7:41 pm

Think we’re all best not responding or engaging with certain posters on this thread if we want to keep it the brilliant source of information it has been.

We can answer whoever as long as nobody gets angry and starts being nasty and calling names, everybody has opinions that they are entitled to, the majority of us won’t agree with pendle but it doesn’t mean that they can’t post relevant stuff if they wish.

Pendle Bella wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:46 pm

Lancasterclaret

".... Putin is stuck in Russia for the rest of his life.."

Do you want a bet on that?

No need for bets the answer as I mentioned above is he can travel to any country that isn’t signed up with the ICC. Any other country he would be able to be arrested whether it would happen baring in mind he would have body guards etc is another matter.

The issue for him is how long would he have body guards after he is no longer the Russian president.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:46 pm

No need for bets the answer as I mentioned above is he can travel to any country that isn’t signed up with the ICC. Any other country he would be able to be arrested whether it would happen baring in mind he would have body guards etc is another matter.

The issue for him is how long would he have body guards after he is no longer the Russian president.

Putin will not survive not being Russian president.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:46 pm

No need for bets the answer as I mentioned above is he can travel to any country that isn’t signed up with the ICC. Any other country he would be able to be arrested whether it would happen baring in mind he would have body guards etc is another matter.

The issue for him is how long would he have body guards after he is no longer the Russian president.

The USA aren't part of the ICC, they refuse to recognise it..
Putin to a ranch somewhere quiet?

Putin to retire to Trump Tower?

I take it that any trip abroad would require careful planning with regards to who's air space he travels through.

Report in the Telegraph of the UKR using WWI maxim machine guns in the trenches ! Though with modern sights and relatively close range I bet they can still do some serious damage

Chobulous wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:42 pm

Putin will not survive not being Russian president.

That may well be the reason he became Russian President - to keep his particularly, but his mates too, stolen wealth.

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:56 pm

Report in the Telegraph of the UKR using WWI maxim machine guns in the trenches ! Though with modern sights and relatively close range I bet they can still do some serious damage

There was film of this on BBC News last night. Pic here near the bottom:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64955537

Reminded me of a Dad's Army episode where they went to the museum to get some weapons.

https://twitter.com/KarolinaAHird/statu ... 4733898764

One of the ISW analysts pretty much saying that the Russian spring offensive is very close to running out of steam

I think its fair to say that its not achieved remotely close to even the most pessimistic of Russian forecasts

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 18, 2023 1:56 pm

Report in the Telegraph of the UKR using WWI maxim machine guns in the trenches ! Though with modern sights and relatively close range I bet they can still do some serious damage

If (and the pics and reports do suggests this) the Russians are using human wave attacks because of a combination of poor training and lacking equipment, then a Maxim machine gun will be just as effective against this in 2023 as it was in 2014

An incident has occurred in the northern region of Crimea, where an explosion destroyed missiles being transported by rail, according to Ukraine’s defence ministry.
The leader of the city of Dzhankoi, appointed by Russia, reported that the area experienced a drone attack.

Ukraine acknowledged the explosions, but did not explicitly claim responsibility for the incident. If verified, this would represent a rare action by Ukraine’s military in Crimea, an area occupied since 2014.

“The explosions continue the process of Russia’s demilitarisation and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for de-occupation"

Reports are suggesting the missiles were Kalibr NK cruise missiles. An interesting development.

Sorry should have said I got the above from UK Defence Journal!!!1

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:17 pm

If (and the pics and reports do suggests this) the Russians are using human wave attacks because of a combination of poor training and lacking equipment, then a Maxim machine gun will be just as effective against this in 2023 as it was in 2014

I presume you mean "1914"?

Russia needed to push through much further by now. In a few months Ukraine will have firm ground and a lot of new toys with trained crews. What they've lacked is mobility which the new armour will give them.

Expect them to punch through a few spots in the line at which time the Russian line will crumble.

Corky wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:19 am

An incident has occurred in the northern region of Crimea, where an explosion destroyed missiles being transported by rail, according to Ukraine’s defence ministry.
The leader of the city of Dzhankoi, appointed by Russia, reported that the area experienced a drone attack.

Ukraine acknowledged the explosions, but did not explicitly claim responsibility for the incident. If verified, this would represent a rare action by Ukraine’s military in Crimea, an area occupied since 2014.

“The explosions continue the process of Russia’s demilitarisation and prepares the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for de-occupation"

Reports are suggesting the missiles were Kalibr NK cruise missiles. An interesting development.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65021987

Second video I have seen now that is similar to this Lancet I think detonating on or next to Stormer HVM:

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/16 ... CA2SO0u6vg

This is a concern not in terms of the vehicle surviving in both occasions what I saw the vehicle still looked fine even with a direct hit. The issue seems to be seeing or engaging this type of drone I would be shocked if ADAD didn’t pick it up unless it isn’t working or not set up correctly (it used to Alert on birds it was that good). So for me either the crew missed it when alerted to it or engaged and missed no idea on the size of lancet but that is a possibility given the dart spread if it is a starstreak missile.

The soldier from NZ who rescued his Ukranian freind has been killed in battle according to this tweet.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 9428308992

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:35 pm

Second video I have seen now that is similar to this Lancet I think detonating on or next to Stormer HVM:

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/16 ... CA2SO0u6vg

This is a concern not in terms of the vehicle surviving in both occasions what I saw the vehicle still looked fine even with a direct hit. The issue seems to be seeing or engaging this type of drone I would be shocked if ADAD didn’t pick it up unless it isn’t working or not set up correctly (it used to Alert on birds it was that good). So for me either the crew missed it when alerted to it or engaged and missed no idea on the size of lancet but that is a possibility given the dart spread if it is a starstreak missile.

Or the vehicle has broken down and is awaiting recovery with no crew in it, hence no ADAD / engagement?

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1637 ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

Nice thread by Rob Lee on the strategic context of Bakhmut for both Ukr and Russia.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:17 pm

a Maxim machine gun will be just as effective against this in 2023 as it was in 2014

It's inventor is buried in West Norwood cemetery. Just in case you were wondering

A Maxim should be fine. M2 Brownings are still widely in use. Been modified a bit since 1918 but essentially the same.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0534458368

As we are talking about old stuff........

https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status ... 6856334337

Zelensky is in Bakhmut, which does rather suggest that its quite easy to get in and out of, and that its probably not in any imminent danger of falling

Compare that to Putin turning up in Mariupol in the dead of night and only meeting what Russia claimed to be local residents but later turned out to be made up of mainly FSB operatives

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:32 am

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 0534458368

As we are talking about old stuff........

It's going to be a hot knife and butter situation against modern western MBT's isnt it?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/163 ... fiYhA&s=19

Russia to become china's resource b*tch?

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 22, 2023 2:23 pm

It's going to be a hot knife and butter situation against modern western MBT's isnt it?

Yes

But imagine the crews, they know they are in death traps, so how keen are they going to be to take risks?

Not at all

Pretty sure the Slovakian T-55 given to Ukraine (which got modernised in the 2000s, and will be far more modernised than anything the Russia can put together) aren't on the front line but are up on the Belarus border

No one is under any illusions about the combat value of these tanks in 2023

They might be okay in a purely defensive role (hull down, firing at extreme range) but even then I'm not sure

I suspect they will be used as mobile artillery (as both sides are doing already)

But it has to be stated that after a year of war, Russia are actively bringing these tanks out of reserve to deal with the losses

I'm not up to date on Russian equipment stocks at all, but they must be running out of tanks to go down to this stage this quickly, and you do wonder just how long this can go on for