one more win

[dermotdermot]

Not happy at all about Everton playing Chelsea today only 60hours after their Thursday night game at OT. Could easily have been played Monday night. If Chelsea play like they did on Thursday they win but the Lampard connection worries me.
For us it’s still one game at a time.

Don’t be daft. They won’t be doing him any favours.

[dermotdermot]

Not happy at all about Everton playing Chelsea today only 60hours after their Thursday night game at OT. Could easily have been played Monday night. If Chelsea play like they did on Thursday they win but the Lampard connection worries me.
For us it’s still one game at a time.

Don’t be daft. They won’t be doing him any favours.

[JohnDearyMe]

I think Everton will win today and we'll need a minimum of 2 more wins

[dermotdermot]

Anyway, don’t worry either way. It’s Leeds that will be going down with the bumbling Bumford put back where he belongs. Playing for England? I ask you!

[andyh]

Saw on the Everton website that of the 6 remaining fixture, last time they played those games they got 5 wins and 1 draw.

It certainly isn’t over yet. With so few games left statistics lose meaning… e.g Everton averaging less than 1 point a game.

Win against Villa home and away and we should be able to relax for the Newcastle game… which at Christmas looked like a relegation decider.

[BennyD]

Everton in the bottom 3 and they are there for a reason, even we beat them when we were playing badly. Trust me, this is the season they finally go down.

[CombatClaret]

Everton in the bottom 3 and they are there for a reason.

Could have said the same of us. We've just gone on a run, nothing to say they couldn't. Unlikely but possible.

They play a Watford even we can beat from 1-0 down
Home games vs Brentford and Palace who may have the buckets and spades out.

[Dark Cloud]

Their game in hand is Watford away and they have some very winnable games left, especially at home. It's not over by a long way yet.

Clearly!

[boyyanno]

I think 2 more wins at least is needed. Probably 2 and a draw.

[jos]

I’m not complacent at all but I do think we’ve done enough already. Everton can’t win for toffee

Hmmm, Now what are you thinking?

[Shaggy]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... er-league/

i have us surviving on GD with DL going down.

[Ric_C]

Anyone who has got a faint heart, do not do that calculator

My thinking is that 38/39 might not be enough.

40 should do it

Southampton might not be safe yet.

Whatever happens, we will probably need to get something from the last game of the season. Not sure if I can take that

[Goddy]

Ha ha - just done that calculator thingyo. I reckon we'll beat Villa (h) and Newcastle (who won't even have a position or two to play for when they turn up at the Turf). Us on 40 points and ahead of Southampton (who will, likely lose their final 3 games). Everton and Leeds on 38 with DL down on GD. Funny if that happens!!! (If there is a god, please let that happen)

[Zlatan]

Hmmm, Now what are you thinking?

Now I’m thinking I need to keep my thoughts to myself…!

[willsclarets]

At this point I would snap your arm off for us going into the Newcastle game needing a win to stay up

[matttheclaret]

I think 39 points might be the number needed. I'm struggling to see both Everton and Leeds getting to 40.

Next Saturday is crucial - think if we win against Villa we'll have a very good chance

[Vegas Claret]

i have us staying up with a goal difference of plus 70 after Chris Wood scores over 50 OG's on the last day

[Zlatan]

i have us staying up with a goal difference of plus 70 after Chris Wood scores over 50 OG's on the last day

Nah… he’d be offside and they all be disallowed by VAR

[Spijed]

Think it could be Leeds if you look at it on paper?
Cant see a lot v Chelsea or Arsenal hopefully
Brighton have taken 28 points away from home 4th best in the league it will not be an easy game at all
Leaves Brentford as most likely points but they have also been on a decent run of form
Then take the goal difference which is really not gunna change enough

This seems to be the best route to survival for us.

Arsenal really need a win against Leeds to have any hope of getting in the Champions league and surely Chelsea won't want to be going into the Cup final displaying the form they showed yesterday.

If we win against Villa we'll be 5 ahead of Everton and 3 in front of Leeds.

A very good position.

[ClaretMov]

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... er-league/

i have us surviving on GD with DL going down.

Mine was

Screenshot_20220502-073517_Chrome.jpg (93.48 KiB) Viewed 1895 times

[Lancasterclaret]

Thing is, we've had to essentially win each of our last three games to stand a chance, and we've got ourselves into the position where we've given ourselves a real chance

And Saturday is now another must win game

[Jakubclaret]

It’s impossible to say what’s needed because we don’t know what Leeds or Everton will do against their opponents, we could beat villa & if they win we’ll still need to carry on & go again, it’s that tight with not many games left, every game is simply must win & that might not be enough in the final reckoning, the mindset amongst some earlier on was that some games results wise could be selective when all along really we needed full steam ahead from the outset.

[Hibsclaret]

It’s a shame Villa aren’t already safe because they have Liverpool and City to play. If we beat them at the Turf we are 3 points behind them and so they are going to be very tough at Villa Park even if they lose at the Turf.

[Hibsclaret]

# Team M. W. D. L. Goals Dif. Pt.
1 Manchester City Manchester City 38 30 5 3 95:22 73 95
2 Liverpool FC Liverpool FC 38 28 8 2 96:24 72 92
3 Chelsea FC Chelsea FC 38 22 10 6 76:32 44 76
4 Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur 38 22 5 11 69:43 26 71
5 Arsenal FC Arsenal FC 38 22 4 12 60:45 15 70
6 Manchester United Manchester United 38 16 12 10 58:55 3 60
7 West Ham United West Ham United 38 16 7 15 56:52 4 55
8 Leicester City Leicester City 38 14 11 13 58:58 0 53
9 Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 16 4 18 35:38 -3 52
10 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 38 11 16 11 38:45 -7 49
11 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 38 10 16 12 51:47 4 46
12 Brentford FC Brentford FC 38 13 7 18 46:54 -8 46
13 Newcastle United Newcastle United 38 11 12 15 42:61 -19 45
14 Aston Villa Aston Villa 38 12 6 20 47:54 -7 42
15 Everton FC Everton FC 38 12 6 20 42:59 -17 42
16 Southampton FC Southampton FC 38 9 13 16 42:67 -25 40
17 Burnley FC Burnley FC 38 8 15 15 36:52 -16 39
18 Leeds United Leeds United 38 8 11 19 42:79 -37 35
19 Watford FC Watford FC 38 6 4 28 33:78 -45 22
20 Norwich City Norwich City 38 5 6 27 22:79 -57 21

Here it is.

Leeds down. That’s with them losing at Brentford and us drawing with Newcastle. It would be very funny if they win at Brentford and we lose to Newcastle as they would go down on goal difference.

[Quicknick]

It’s impossible to say what’s needed because we don’t know what Leeds or Everton will do against their opponents, we could beat villa & if they win we’ll still need to carry on & go again, it’s that tight with not many games left, every game is simply must win & that might not be enough in the final reckoning, the mindset amongst some earlier on was that some games results wise could be selective when all along really we needed full steam ahead from the outset.

Obviously, if we win every game that will be enough. What are you talking about?

[CrosspoolClarets]

Mentality now has to be 40 points and safe. I had said 38 but… That would need results for Everton, Leeds and Southampton that all seem unlikely. Less, and we are in a weird season, can’t be guaranteed.

[Jakubclaret]

Obviously, if we win every game that will be enough. What are you talking about?

It won’t be if Everton wins there’s it’s a point difference.

[tiger76]

Mentality now has to be 40 points and safe. I had said 38 but… That would need results for Everton, Leeds and Southampton that all seem unlikely. Less, and we are in a weird season, can’t be guaranteed.

It is amazing how quickly the required points have suddenly jumped. and it does appear that around 40 will be needed, which is very high, but that's due to the rapid upturn of Burnley and Leeds under new managers.

Looks like it will go to the wire, and we'll need a result against Newcastle on the last day, how are your nerves in that case.

However we play prior to Everton & Leeds again this week, so if we beat Villa the onus again switches to both to respond in kind, and both face tricky away games. so one or both may slip up fingers crossed.

[clarethomer]

It’s definitely 40 pts and I have thought that for a few games now.

Just got to hope that we can win our way to being above Southampton on goal difference as I suspect that Everton will and Leeds will now take us right to the end.

[nil_desperandum]

It won’t be if Everton wins there’s it’s a point difference.

What about Leeds?

[Jakubclaret]

What about Leeds?

I’m going off matching like for like scenarios we would finish above Leeds due to the GD but not Everton, I think some people are struggling with the concept that Everton’s extra game could potentially earn them 3 points which is more than the 2 we currently lead them by.

[nil_desperandum]

I’m going off matching like for like scenarios we would finish above Leeds due to the GD but not Everton, I think some people are struggling with the concept that Everton’s extra game could potentially earn them 3 points which is more than the 2 we currently lead them by.

This was the post to which you replied:

Obviously, if we win every game that will be enough

Your response;

It won’t be if Everton wins there’s it’s a point difference.

The initial post was factually correct. Irrespective of Everton's results Leeds could not catch us unless they won every game about 10 nil.

[dsr]

I’m going off matching like for like scenarios we would finish above Leeds due to the GD but not Everton, I think some people are struggling with the concept that Everton’s extra game could potentially earn them 3 points which is more than the 2 we currently lead them by.

It's not that people are struggling with the concept, it's that they don't care about whether we finish above Leeds or above Everton as long as we finish above one of them.

[Jakubclaret]

This was the post to which you replied:

The post was factually correct. Irrespective of Everton's results Leeds could not catch us unless they won every game about 10 nil.

I’m not quite sure where we going with this, I never said Leeds could catch us or even equal if the results are like for like, it’s EVERTON I’m referring to I thought that would have been obvious to anybody who understands the league table I’m not referring to LEEDS who currently sit below us on GD only. EVERTON only like for like it won’t be enough.

[Jakubclaret]

It's not that people are struggling with the concept, it's that they don't care about whether we finish above Leeds or above Everton as long as we finish above one of them.

I never said anybody did!

[JimmyRobbo]

Mine was

Screenshot_20220502-073517_Chrome.jpg

Mine is very similar.

I have the same bottom 5 in that order but with (3 of) us on 37 and our goal difference edging it by 6. I'd take that. I tend to err on the side of caution where we're concerned but the risk/reward is currently massive during each game. I'd hope our older heads will pay off. Who knows, injuries to Westy and Mee have depleted our already meagre options, further.

[StuffyClaret]

Mine was

Screenshot_20220502-073517_Chrome.jpg

......Except you have got us staying up off just 37 games

[IanMcL]

As above.
2 will do it.

[NewClaret]

Win against Villa home and away and we should be able to relax for the Newcastle game… which at Christmas looked like a relegation decider.

No chance we beat Villa home & away If we do I’ll walk around Towneley naked after the Newcastle game!!

[Spijed]

No chance we beat Villa home & away If we do I’ll walk around Towneley naked after the Newcastle game!!

But after the Norwich game you'd have been crazy to think we could have taken 10 points from the next four matches.

[ElectroClaret]

We'll certainly need something from the Newcastle game unless we beat Villa home and away.
And yes, that might be tough, but not as tough as coming away from Spurs with a share of the points.

And the required points will have to come from somewhere.

[mikeS]

Hopefully the unbeaten run and clean sheets will continue, the lads look hungry for it - a different side to earlier in the season.
Looking forward to our final four games.

[CrosspoolClarets]

We'll certainly need something from the Newcastle game unless we beat Villa home and away.
And yes, that might be tough, but not as tough as coming away from Spurs with a share of the points.

And the required points will have to come from somewhere.

This isn’t necessarily true. If Leeds lose their next three a win against Villa would see us safe.

However, I worry about the Chelsea game. They are bad currently. I worry less about Brighton at Elland, who are good.

Talking of worrying though, us against Villa will be tough. We have to go hard at that game and ideally have Cornet playing. Ings wouldn’t happily relegate us, but he has a cold eyed ruthlessness in him nonetheless. It feels likely we fail to win that and it gives others a lift and a route to safety. Bookies overpricing us to go down imho.

[Spijed]

If there is a ray of hope regarding Chelsea's performances let's hope it follows a recent pattern.

Lose 4-1 to Brenford followed by a 6-0 win against Southampton.
Lose 4-2 to Arsenal followed by a 1-0 win against West Ham.

[Dark Cloud]

No way will one more win be enough. That relies on Leeds losing at least 3 out of 4 and I feel that's unlikely. Plus Villa are a good side who have lost their way a bit recently, probably due to having to neither look up nor seriously look down, but they are definitely dangerous. Our players have played out of their skin for 4 straight games now and with our thin and ageing squad you've got to worry it will be a bridge too far at some point. Finally getting full weeks off between games has got to be helping us right now i feel. I just desperately hope we can get 3 points on Saturday and then if there really has to be a game we don't really show up it's the Spurs match, leaving us 2 to get over the line.

[martin_p]

It’s a shame Villa aren’t already safe because they have Liverpool and City to play. If we beat them at the Turf we are 3 points behind them and so they are going to be very tough at Villa Park even if they lose at the Turf.

They also play Palace at home before our game at Villa Park so if they get anything from that they’ll be safe enough.

[spt_claret]

I think we need 40, which is pretty crazy in honesty.
I'm still unsure about the long term ramifications of sacking Dyche, but I can't argue with the upturn in form. If we really do need 40, as impossible as it is to say if we would or wouldn't have hit 40 under Dyche (whether we do or don't under Jackson), the results recently tell me we've got as good a chance as we could have hoped for. I'm not 100% convinced Dyche would have done worse (I'm about 70/30 on it) but I definitely don't think he'd have done better since we've taken 10/12. If we need more than 40, I think the odds were against us whoever was in charge, but right now I think we can hit 40.
It's a strange one to be in a situation where even if we improve as much as possible it might not be enough. The misses against West Ham, Norwich and Brentford, and capitulation on the opening day, keep playing on my mind. If we're relegated by anything less than 8 points I'll be looking at those wondering what could have been, if we're relegated by more than 8, that would mean we collapse in the last 4 games.
Really has been a season of tight margins, cliché as it is.

[RVclaret]

I think we need 40, which is pretty crazy in honesty.
I'm still unsure about the long term ramifications of sacking Dyche, but I can't argue with the upturn in form. If we really do need 40, as impossible as it is to say if we would or wouldn't have hit 40 under Dyche (whether we do or don't under Jackson), the results recently tell me we've got as good a chance as we could have hoped for. I'm not 100% convinced Dyche would have done worse (I'm about 70/30 on it) but I definitely don't think he'd have done better since we've taken 10/12. If we need more than 40, I think the odds were against us whoever was in charge, but right now I think we can hit 40.
It's a strange one to be in a situation where even if we improve as much as possible it might not be enough. The misses against West Ham, Norwich and Brentford, and capitulation on the opening day, keep playing on my mind. If we're relegated by anything less than 8 points I'll be looking at those wondering what could have been, if we're relegated by more than 8, that would mean we collapse in the last 4 games.
Really has been a season of tight margins, cliché as it is.

I found these stats they showed on MNF last night quite interesting. Obviously 4 games is a small sample size but still. The > 2x the amount of 10+ pass sequences per game is quite telling.

[tiger76]

At this point I would snap your arm off for us going into the Newcastle game needing a win to stay up

Right now I'd take that scenario, at least then our fate will be in our own hands. And after the season we've endured that's really all we can ask for.

[ElectroClaret]

Whatever we achieve under Jacko, we were only heading one way under the previous management.

The response from the players is there for all to see.