Sh*t or Bust

[Penwortham_Claret]

Now that the dust has settled I’ve been considering what next season could hold.

As I see it, there are a couple of facts that could give us a very exciting season ahead in that getting back into the Premier League is business critical at ALK and secondly, if it all goes wrong financially BFC take the hit with the hit that ALK take being far less.

In my eyes, the only way to play this one from ALK’s point of view is to take financial risks on securing an immediate return to the Premier League. This gives us a very exciting season ahead but potentially puts the future of the club at risk

[paulatky]

Got to agree with your assessment
Try to renegotiate the immediate repayment clause on relegation and go for it.

[what_no_pies]

Never understood that phrase.

Sh*t = undesirable outcome
Bust = undesirable outcome

Doesn't make sense unless what you're trying to say is that we're doomed regardless.

[jedi_master]

He has already gambled and lost, he cannot chase his losses like an addict in Vegas.

We need to get back to being sustainable.

Pay the debt off with the sales of Pope, Cornet and whatever else we get interest in, alongside a portion of the parachute payments.

Use what we have left to sign the exceptional free transfers (for this league) that are available (Lawrence, Swift, Wallace) and a couple of League One younger prospects like Scott Twine, and use the loan market. Move Heaven and Earth to retain Mee on a two year deal, and introduce Richardson, Thomas and perhaps Gomez-Mancini into the first team fold. Release the ageing players who are past their prime like Bardsley, Lennon, Stephens, Barnes.

No more gambling.

[bf2k]

So bet the whole future of the football club on getting promoted to save the future of the football club??? How the hell did this lot pass a fit and proper persons test?

Adding a relegation clause into a loan for a team with a real chance of getting relegated year on year? Real smart business that one.

[bf2k]

He has already gambled and lost, he cannot chase his losses like an addict in Vegas.

We need to get back to being sustainable.

Pay the debt off with the sales of Pope, Cornet and whatever else we get interest in, alongside a portion of the parachute payments.

Use what we have left to sign the exceptional free transfers (for this league) that are available (Lawrence, Swift, Wallace) and a couple of League One younger prospects like Scott Twine, and use the loan market. Move Heaven and Earth to retain Mee on a two year deal, and introduce Richardson, Thomas and perhaps Gomez-Mancini into the first team fold. Release the ageing players who are past their prime like Bardsley, Lennon, Stephens, Barnes.

No more gambling.

Isn’t using the youth team like you say not a gamble?

[BurnleyFC]

If Alan had spent £100m of his own money then he wouldn’t be seeing a return on it anytime soon.

But he didn’t so he doesn’t have to worry.

[Penwortham_Claret]

I’m not saying it’s what he should do, more that it’s what he may do

[jedi_master]

Isn’t using the youth team like you say not a gamble?

Introducing three well regarded young players to fill bench spots I do not see as a gamble. I said this on another thread, but I would expect, and hope, for a team something like (with signings of Lawrence, Swift, Wallace on free transfers as a starting point):

---------------------Hennessey
--Roberts-----Collins--------Mee-----Taylor
---------Brownhill--Swift----Westwood
--Wallace-------Weghorst-------McNeil

Sus:
Peacock-Farrell
Lowton
Thomas
Long
Cork
Gudmundsson
Rodriguez
Richardson
Lawrence

Would cost us nothing, we have sold two players and used parachute money to bring the debt down significantly and have a team that has a good chance of a top six finish, particularly with that defence. We will have probably halved the wage bill with the sales and players we have released (I would retain Cork for one year though).

[dsr]

He has already gambled and lost, he cannot chase his losses like an addict in Vegas.

We need to get back to being sustainable.

Pay the debt off with the sales of Pope, Cornet and whatever else we get interest in, alongside a portion of the parachute payments.

Use what we have left to sign the exceptional free transfers (for this league) that are available (Lawrence, Swift, Wallace) and a couple of League One younger prospects like Scott Twine, and use the loan market. Move Heaven and Earth to retain Mee on a two year deal, and introduce Richardson, Thomas and perhaps Gomez-Mancini into the first team fold. Release the ageing players who are past their prime like Bardsley, Lennon, Stephens, Barnes.

No more gambling.

He can chase his losses. I think that was the OP's point.

ALK invested approx. £20m in BFC. That £20m is now worthless because if they sell the club, all the proceeds go on paying their debts, so their investment is worth nothing. If they go "this or bust" [sic] then they have no financial risk at all because their investment value can't go below nothing.

Following your plan would, I dare say, be the best and most sensible action for BFC, but it wouldn't make ALK any money. "This or bust" gives Burnley FC huge financial risk and they could go bust. Would that matter to ALK?

[jedi_master]

He can chase his losses. I think that was the OP's point.

ALK invested approx. £20m in BFC. That £20m is now worthless because if they sell the club, all the proceeds go on paying their debts, so their investment is worth nothing. If they go "this or bust" [sic] then they have no financial risk at all because their investment value can't go below nothing.

Burnley FC have huge financial risk and could go bust. Would that matter to ALK?

I know that he can do (and seen as he has already shown total disregard to our sustainability by his chosen method of purchase, it's possibly likely) but I am praying he does not.

[dsr]

Introducing three well regarded young players to fill bench spots I do not see as a gamble. I said this on another thread, but I would expect, and hope, for a team something like (with signings of Lawrence, Swift, Wallace on free transfers as a starting point):

---------------------Hennessey
--Roberts-----Collins--------Mee-----Taylor
---------Brownhill--Swift----Westwood
--Wallace-------Weghorst-------McNeil

Sus:
Peacock-Farrell
Lowton
Thomas
Long
Cork
Gudmundsson
Rodriguez
Richardson
Lawrence

Would cost us nothing, we have sold two players and used parachute money to bring the debt down significantly and have a team that has a good chance of a top six finish, particularly with that defence. We will have probably halved the wage bill with the sales and players we have released (I would retain Cork for one year though).

All makes sense apart from the parachute money bit. We can't use parachute money to reduce debt because we need it to pay the wages and running costs of the club.

[jedi_master]

All makes sense apart from the parachute money bit. We can't use parachute money to reduce debt because we need it to pay the wages and running costs of the club.

Sales and a portion of that money must be used for debt, as we will probably not make enough money from sales of Cornet and Pope to pay off the 'significant proportion' of the £65m that is due now.

Our wage bill has likely more than halved overnight due to relegation release clauses and the players we are about to sell/release. Granted, our TV money has also just been decimated so I have no idea how it all balances out. I guess we can arguably expect £25m for Pope and Cornet has a £17.5m release clause, so lets (for arguments sake) suggest we might make around £40m from the pair (no idea if Pope has a sell on for Charlton), I would use that against the loan immediately. If that is enough for the 'significant proportion' then great, if not then we would need to dip into parachute money as I see no other method of meeting that payment. None of our other players have done enough to catch attention (possible exception being Collins, but we need to hope not as he will be crucial to us).

[buzzclarets79]

If we can keep the back 4 of Roberts, Collins, Mee & Taylor we should be defensively sound, add in Thomas as the 3rd choice centre back.
If we could also keep Pope it’ll be amazing but can’t see that happening sadly.

[tiger76]

If we can keep the back 4 of Roberts, Collins, Mee & Taylor we should be defensively sound, add in Thomas as the 3rd choice centre back.
If we could also keep Pope it’ll be amazing but can’t see that happening sadly.

Defensively we'll be strong in the Championship, my concern is where are the goals coming from, I assume Cornet will be snapped up, Barnes and Vydra will both leave, so that means we'll have Jay Rod, who's not getting any younger, and Weghorst who may or may not stick around, but even if he does the jury is very much out on him as a poacher.

Add to that our midfield lack goals, and you see where our issues will be again, Brownhill and McNeil should be able to chip in, if they're still here, which is also doubtful, but I don't see many goals from elsewhere.

Ideally we need to find another Andre Gray type who'll bag 20+ in the Champ, but who fits that mould, and is within our budget I'm not sure.