Magic Numbers 2022/23

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Spijed
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Spijed » Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:37 pm

So we could be champions in 8 games time! :)

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Vince Fontaine » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:07 pm

After the midweek matches

Blackburn………..-2……….31
.
Huddersfield…..-2………..15
Blackpool………..-2………..14
Wigan……………..-2………..13

UTC

Tricky Trevor
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Tricky Trevor » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:12 pm

Spijed wrote:
Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:37 pm
So we could be champions in 8 games time! :)
Could be promoted but Blades are too close to guarantee title.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Commy » Sat Feb 11, 2023 6:32 pm

Every team except Sheff Utd on 30 points or less. We could be safe of relegation if we win our next two :lol: .

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:08 am

Looking good even with Sheff Utd and Boro winning......... who just happen to play each other on Wednesday night.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:37 am

Commy wrote:
Sat Feb 11, 2023 6:32 pm
Every team except Sheff Utd on 30 points or less. We could be safe of relegation if we win our next two :lol: .
Or win the next five and we are promoted :)

Obviously that requires the rest to lose the next five, but the play off contenders are all over the place with their form so who knows ;)

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Vince Fontaine » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:08 pm

Match Day 30

W/E. 11/02/2023

Burnley 3-0 Preston



Burnley
Sheffield Utd………-3………..42
Middlesbrough…….-3……….29
Luton ………………….-5……….30
Millwall ……………….-3……….30
Watford ………………-5………..24
Sunderland ………….-3……….26
Blackburn …………….-5……….26
West Brom ……………-6……….25
Norwich ………………..-6………23
Hull ……………………….-5……..19
Preston ………………….-6……..21
Bristol City …………….-3……..20
Coventry ……………….-5………20
Swansea …………………-6………20
QPR ………………………..-6…….17
Birmingham ……………-3……..19
Reading …………………..-6…….19
Stoke……………………….-5……..15
Rotherham ……………..-5……..14
Cardiff …………………….-6……….7
Wigan ………………………-3……..10
Huddersfield ……………-6……..9
Blackpool …………………-5……..9


UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by dibraidio » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:25 pm

Does this mean that if we win our next two, teams could start to drop off that list come Saturday night?

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by evensteadiereddie » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:33 pm

If they lose while we win, yes.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:46 pm

Just gone back to match week 25, and in those 5 matches the figures below us have halved. On that calculation another 5 with the same results and we could be flirting with the finish line.
That would be with 11 games to play. Mindboggling.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by HiThere » Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:52 pm

Waiting for Sheffield United to be removed from the list.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Feb 13, 2023 3:01 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:25 pm
Does this mean that if we win our next two, teams could start to drop off that list come Saturday night?
Do we remove them from the list or do their numbers just turn negative? Meaning that even if BFC lose all their remaining games the teams with negative numbers still won't be ahead of BFC at the end of the season.

Of course, we are all looking forward to when every other team has negative magic numbers.

UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Vince Fontaine » Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:59 am

Match Day 31

14-15/02/2023

Burnley 1-1 Watford

Burnley
Sheffield Utd………….-4…….38
Middlesbrough……….-1……..28
Luton……………………..-3……..27
Sunderland…………….-1……..25
Watford………………….-3…….21
Millwall………………….-4……..26
Blackburn………………-3………23
Norwich………………..-1……..22
West Brom…………….-3……..22
Coventry……………….-1……..19
Swansea……………….-1………19
Hull……………………….-4……..15
Preston………………..-3……….18
Reading……………….-1……….18
Bristol City………….-3……….17
QPR………………………-4………13
Birmingham…………-4………15
Stoke………………….-1……….14
Rotherham………..-4……….10
Cardiff………………..-1……..6
Wigan…………………-3……….7
Huddersfield……..-4……….5
Blackpool…………..-4………5

UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Dark Cloud » Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:17 pm

I'm no mathematician, but if I'm following this (and some may remember I've struggled with the concept behind this thread from as far back as 2015!!) the bottom 2 could reach zero or below this weekend leaving just another 22 teams who could potentially overtake us. That means we could still be relegated! Sh**! It's all Muric's fault.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Dark Cloud » Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:22 pm

Er, that would be 21 teams I guess!

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Tricky Trevor » Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:48 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:17 pm
I'm no mathematician, but if I'm following this (and some may remember I've struggled with the concept behind this thread from as far back as 2015!!) the bottom 2 could reach zero or below this weekend leaving just another 22 teams who could potentially overtake us. That means we could still be relegated! Sh**! It's all Muric's fault.
Plus Cardiff who are on 6.
Cardiff play Reading, Friday night
Huddersfield v Brum
lashers v Stoke

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Goddy » Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:40 pm

Exactly Dark Cloud....we could be officially safe from relegation after this weekend (if we win and Cardiff, Hudds and Blackpool lose).

We could also be as few as 5 games away from promotion, too!! (I know, I know - extremely unlikely but I think that puts where we are and how fantastically we're doing, into context)

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by NRC » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:02 pm

Bristol City making a run for play-offs. Based on the form extrapolation it will be tight. Banana skin for us potentially.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by aggi » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:07 pm

For those following the magic numbers very closely it doesn't take into account goal difference i.e. it assumes that we have a worse goal difference than everybody and thus need more points than them to be safe, not just level.

I could remodel it to include goal difference but, given how that could cause the numbers to keep moving up and down with a club with similar goal difference, I haven't bothered unless anyone has any strong views.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Goddy » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:18 pm

Aggi - don't bother trying to incorporate goal difference. It's good enough that we know when the magic number gets to zero, that's it....they can't catch us. Appreciate your offer, though

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by dsr » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:20 pm

Goddy wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:40 pm
Exactly Dark Cloud....we could be officially safe from relegation after this weekend (if we win and Cardiff, Hudds and Blackpool lose).

We could also be as few as 5 games away from promotion, too!! (I know, I know - extremely unlikely but I think that puts where we are and how fantastically we're doing, into context)
We're mathematically safe already.

For us to get relegated, 21 teams would need to come past us to put us 22nd. The teams in 2nd to 22nd would need a total of 551 points for them all to catch up to 69 points and beat us on goal difference.

But there are only 178 games left, maximum 534 points even if there are no draws. We're safe! That last minute equaliser has made us safe! :D
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Goddy » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:27 pm

I like your attention to detail dsr.

That's the problem (and possibly strength, too) of magic numbers.....it doesn't take account of the fact that teams (below us) have to play each other so they can't all get maximum points available. I appreciate your point is slightly different by looking at the total number of points available.

Either way, I think we can perhaps agree that we're not going down and it would take an enormous collapse in form for us not to go up.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by NRC » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:28 pm

Three cheers for dsr and Burnley Football club.... hip hip...!...hip hip...!...hip hip...!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Dark Cloud » Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:02 pm

dsr wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:20 pm
We're mathematically safe already.

For us to get relegated, 21 teams would need to come past us to put us 22nd. The teams in 2nd to 22nd would need a total of 551 points for them all to catch up to 69 points and beat us on goal difference.

But there are only 178 games left, maximum 534 points even if there are no draws. We're safe! That last minute equaliser has made us safe! :D
I'll take your word for it! 😊

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Dark Cloud » Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:05 pm

Goddy wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:40 pm
Exactly Dark Cloud....we could be officially safe from relegation after this weekend (if we win and Cardiff, Hudds and Blackpool lose).

We could also be as few as 5 games away from promotion, too!! (I know, I know - extremely unlikely but I think that puts where we are and how fantastically we're doing, into context)
Once we get mathematically safe I'll sleep far easier and probably get drunk down the pub. Don't forget for most of the last 10 years that's been our only aim and those habits are hard to break!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by timshorts » Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:41 pm

dsr wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:20 pm
We're mathematically safe already.

For us to get relegated, 21 teams would need to come past us to put us 22nd. The teams in 2nd to 22nd would need a total of 551 points for them all to catch up to 69 points and beat us on goal difference.

But there are only 178 games left, maximum 534 points even if there are no draws. We're safe! That last minute equaliser has made us safe! :D
Unfortunately, that doesn't work. Two of the clubs in the bottom four could beat us and lose all their other games. That gives a lot of the others extra points.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by timshorts » Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:52 pm

The maximum points that anybody could go down with (as at the start of a season in a league where 3 go down) is 3(n+1) where n is the number of teams in the league. The +1 comes from +2 from playing the two rubbish teams but - 1 as you don't play yourself.

For our league of 24, that translates to p46 w25 d0 l21 pts 75.
It means that 2 sides need to p46 l44 and the games between Blackburn and Watford don't matter what happens save to work out which of the two finishes above the other.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by dsr » Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:21 pm

timshorts wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:41 pm
Unfortunately, that doesn't work. Two of the clubs in the bottom four could beat us and lose all their other games. That gives a lot of the others extra points.
Not relevant. If Blackpool beat Burnley, it doesn't give Cardiff any extra points. There aren't enough points left in the season for 21 more clubs to all reach 69.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Clarets4me » Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:54 am

Match Day 31 .... mainly ! Match Day 32 for some, and Match Day 30 for Millwall ! :D

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Clarets4me » Fri Feb 17, 2023 1:06 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:05 pm
Once we get mathematically safe I'll sleep far easier and probably get drunk down the pub. Don't forget for most of the last 10 years that's been our only aim and those habits are hard to break!
Well, sweet dreams, and trebles all round !!

Even if you go back to the start of 24 team Divisions in English Football history, and then recalculate the " 2 points for a win " seasons to the modern " 3 points " system, no side has ever been relegated with 69 points !! 8-)

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Grimsdale » Fri Feb 17, 2023 1:31 am

http://hasithappened.net/burnley/202223 ... ampionship tells you that the worst we can finish is 21st.

Here's what the worst case scenario table would look like:
Image
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Clarets4me » Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:06 am

Up at this ungodly hour, I have gone back over the last 30 years of the Championship and researched the number of points required to finish as Runners-up ( note : NOT the number the Runners up got, but the points needed to finish 1 point above third ).

Since the 1992-93, season the average is 83.6 points, 84 in reality ... To look at the extremes, in 1993-94, Forest finished on 83 points but nine points clear of Millwall, on 74 points, so they'd only have needed 75 points. In contrast, in 1997-98, Sunderland finished on 90 points in finishing 3rd, with a Goal Difference of +36, and then lost out to Charlton in the Play-Offs. In any other season over the last 30 years, they'd have been automatically promoted !!

To summarise, any side who's averaged 2 points a game over the last 30 years in the 2nd Tier, has gone up automatically. To do that, we need 23 points from the remaining 15 games. Even if we average a point a game from here on in, we'll hit 84 points, and to match that 'Boro would have to have a record of W9, D3, L2 from their remaining 14 games ...

I think we'll be OK ....

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by FCBurnley » Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:42 am

Boro magic number is 28

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Commy » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:14 pm

Looking good now.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Tricky Trevor » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:21 pm

Win on Tuesday and we are safe.
8 wins, including Boro, and we are up. 14 to play
E5A86406-78CD-4F59-8A47-9F2760C8318F.jpeg
E5A86406-78CD-4F59-8A47-9F2760C8318F.jpeg (204.38 KiB) Viewed 2226 times

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Vegas Claret » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:23 pm

Blackburn with the same goal difference as Stoke

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Commy » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:45 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:21 pm
Win on Tuesday and we are safe.
8 wins, including Boro, and we are up. 14 to play
E5A86406-78CD-4F59-8A47-9F2760C8318F.jpeg
Only if Boro keep winning.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Commy » Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:54 pm

We really would have to fall off a cliff. Since the World Cup we have averaged 2.83. Even 1 point a game would put us on 86.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by timshorts » Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:04 am

dsr wrote:
Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:21 pm
Not relevant. If Blackpool beat Burnley, it doesn't give Cardiff any extra points. There aren't enough points left in the season for 21 more clubs to all reach 69.
Sorry, I misread your earlier post, particularly the "21" part.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Spindles » Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:22 am

Tricky Trevor wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:21 pm
Win on Tuesday and we are safe.
8 wins, including Boro, and we are up. 14 to play
E5A86406-78CD-4F59-8A47-9F2760C8318F.jpeg
If we beat boro it's only 7 wins

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by claretandy » Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:28 am

If the Rovers game is moved, Boro would be the 7th game, we could be promoted if we beat them.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by TopCat » Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:28 am

Convinced 5 wins is all we need.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Feb 19, 2023 4:45 pm

Remember that Boro magic number of 25 is a combination of points won by us or dropped by Boro. So a win for us and a loss for them reduces the MN to 19. We could be promoted after another 9 games in total played by us and Boro. Highly unlikely but mathematically possible

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:09 pm

claretandy wrote:
Sun Feb 19, 2023 9:28 am
If the Rovers game is moved, Boro would be the 7th game, we could be promoted if we beat them.
I just want to get promoted ASAP. regardless of who we play and when. Then once that's secured, win the Championship.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:15 pm

I was looking forward to seeing the first zeros appearing yesterday, but the ones at the bottom sparked into life and it didn't occur!! Typical that they are finding some fight just in time to play us!!!!!

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Goddy » Mon Feb 20, 2023 10:23 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:15 pm
I was looking forward to seeing the first zeros appearing yesterday, but the ones at the bottom sparked into life and it didn't occur!! Typical that they are finding some fight just in time to play us!!!!!
It's that 'Lowest possible finish' column that I'm looking forward to see change of the next few games as, in effect we can't be caught by an increasing number of teams (until we get promoted.........hopefuly)

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Clarets4me » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:07 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

The first minus " Magic Number ", here's to many more ....
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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Commy » Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:48 am

But it still says we can come 24th.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by aggi » Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:13 am

Commy wrote:
Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:48 am
But it still says we can come 24th.
So it does. I'd been a bit lazy and not accounted for games in hand when doing that bit so it's only looking at the bottom team. Will have to fix it.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2022/23

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:21 am

Match Day 32

18/02/2023

Luton 0-1 Burnley


Burnley
Sheffield Utd……………-6………32
Middlesbrough………….-3……..25
Luton………………………..-6……..21
Sunderland……………….-5………20
Millwall…………………….-3………23
Blackburn………………….-3……..20
Watford…………………….-3………18
Norwich…………………….-5……..17
West Brom………………..-6……..16
Coventry…………………..-3………16
Swansea……………………-6……….13
Hull…………………………..-5………10
Preston……………………..-5………13
Bristol City………………-5…………12
Reading…………………….-6……….12
QPR…………………………..-6………7
Birmingham……………….-6………9
Stoke………………………….-6……..8
Cardiff……………………….-3……..3
Rotherham…………………-6……….4
Huddersfield……………..-3………2
Blackpool…………………..-3……..2
Wigan…………………………-5………2

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