After the end of another infernal " International break ", we now have a run of 12 games prior to the World Cup break, which will culminate with our home game against our beloved neighbours on 13th November. How many points do you think we will get out of the possible 36 available ?

My thinking is 21, 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 narrow defeats ....

Over to you

36

2

I’d say 24 is a realistic target.

5 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats.

20.

SydneyClaret wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:51 am

I’d say 24 is a realistic target.

That would be 41 points, after 22 games .... sign me up now !!

24 is minimum for a side that wants promotion.

As the side should keep improving we have to turn these draws in to wins.

So 33 points with just one loss.

Am I missing a game - I count 11 up to the break?
20 points anyway.

Clarets4me wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:48 am

After the end of another infernal " International break ", we now have a run of 12 games prior to the World Cup break, which will culminate with our home game against our beloved neighbours on 13th November. How many points do you think we will get out of the possible 36 available ?

My thinking is 21, 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 narrow defeats ....

Over to you

One thing is for sure, we wont be getting 36 points

CaptainKirk wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:04 am

Am I missing a game - I count 11 up to the break?
20 points anyway.

There is 11 league games + the Cup game
Cardiff (a)
Stoke (h)
Coventry (a)
Swansea (h)
Birmingham (a)
Sunderland (a)
Norwich (h)
Reading (h)
Rotherham (h)
Sheff Utd (a)
Rovers (h)

We need to be aiming at an average of 2 points per game to target promotion.

This squad has the ability, we just need to make sure we’re clinical and get it right.

CaptainKirk wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:04 am

Am I missing a game - I count 11 up to the break?
20 points anyway.

Sorry Cap'n, 11 games and the Cup game at home ...

Wont lose many thats for sure

Clarets4me wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:14 am

Sorry Cap'n, 11 games and the Cup game at home ...

I can forgive you the odd lapse at your age.

I reckon 19.

At least we have more thn ONE win so far this season .

The next 5 games imo are really important. On paper they are all winnable and I think we could actually win all 5. After that it gets more tricky. Win the next 5 and 1 of the next 6, with no defeats and we would be in a strong position. That would put us on 40 points from 22 games. Perfect for a world Cup break and to hit the top 2.

34 a draw at Bramhall Lane

As many as possible but the main thing is still to be in the mix
come the World Cup.

So if we're still a few points off the top two the that'll be fine with me.

But if you were to push me I'd say 24-26 would hopefully still keep us in the top 4.
and not far off the top two.

W7 D3 L2 would give us 24.

For those who think we will lose 2, I hope this not counting the visit of our ever-loving neighbours. Sheff U will be tough; but Cullen can do a job on Sander Berge and hopefully break their play up. I haven't missed many games and from what I have seen we have enough to tangle with anyone in this league.

4 wins. 6 Draws. 2 Defeats.
18 points.
That's play off points

It Is What It Is wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:19 pm

4 wins. 6 Draws. 2 Defeats.
18 points.
That's play off points

18 points from 12 games is 1.5 points per game, in a 46 game season that would get you 69 points. That's what B****** and Millwall finished on last season in 8th and 9th. So we need to improve on that. Even allowing we are a couple of points better than 1.5 per game so far, we need a bit better than that.

In any case, I'll go for 20-22 for those next 12 games = 1.75 per game . That rate over 36 remaining total games + our 17 from 10 already gets us up to c 80 points- a solid play-off spot & challenging for 3rd.

Prompted me to look at the bookie's odds and I see we are 3rd favourites for promotion behind Sheff U and Norwich (ahead of Watford &WBA). Bookies expecting Reading and Sunderland to drop away obviously.

36

Win the lot and sit proudly atop the table on 50 points with less than half the season played.

We should net 20 points minimum from those fixtures, and if we maintain our present form every chance we'll eclipse that figure.

I'll plump for 21 and I'd be happy with that as long as we beat Rovers and win the cup tie, that would ensure we're around the 40 point mark at the halfway stage, which given all our changes would be better than most expected.

We need to be looking at 2 points per game if we are serious about a promotion push, so 22 is a must from those 11, but we are currently 3 points behind where we need to be so hopefully 25.

Cardiff (a) D
Stoke (h) W
Coventry (a) W
Swansea (h) W
Birmingham (a) W
Sunderland (a) D
Norwich (h) L
Reading (h) W
Rotherham (h) W
Sheff Utd (a) L
Rovers (h) W

23 points

Claretforever wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:47 am

We need to be looking at 2 points per game if we are serious about a promotion push, so 22 is a must from those 11, but we are currently 3 points behind where we need to be so hopefully 25.

You've just brought out my inner " Statto " ....

We've had 6 promotions since 1991/1992 ... If you discount the two won by playoffs ( Stockport 1993-94 and Sheffield United 2008-09 ), then we've been promoted automatically twice as League Champions, and twice as Runners-Up. In winning Division 4, we averaged 1.97 pts per game ( would have been 2.02 if the Aldershot games hadn't been nulled ), Winning the Championship in 2015-16 was done at 2.02 as well. Stan's promotion as Runners-Up was at 1.91 and the 2013-14 promotion was 2.02 ..

To sum up, we need to be on around 43 points after 21 games to be on target for automatic promotion, so if we can get 26 points out of these 11 games, we can all relax a bit, enjoy this ridiculous World Cup as best we can and then look forward to part 2 of this season ...

Clarets4me wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:35 pm

You've just brought out my inner " Statto " ....

We've had 6 promotions since 1991/1992 ... If you discount the two won by playoffs ( Stockport 1993-94 and Sheffield United 2008-09 ), then we've been promoted automatically twice as League Champions, and twice as Runners-Up. In winning Division 4, we averaged 1.97 pts per game ( would have been 2.02 if the Aldershot games hadn't been nulled ), Winning the Championship in 2015-16 was done at 2.02 as well. Stan's promotion as Runners-Up was at 1.91 and the 2013-14 promotion was 2.02 ..

To sum up, we need to be on around 43 points after 21 games to be on target for automatic promotion, so if we can get 26 points out of these 11 games, we can all relax a bit, enjoy this ridiculous World Cup as best we can and then look forward to part 2 of this season ...

If you look at the last 5 Championship seasons on average you need 85.2 pts for automatic promotion which is an average of 1.85 pts per game. That means that after 21 games we would need to be on 39 pts to be on track so from the next 11 games we would need 22 pts.

That said in 15/16 season we only had 35 pts after 21 games and we went on to p*ss the league never mind automatic promotion so chuck the stat book in the bin!!

If there are only 11 league games, not 12, I'll amend my prediction to 33 points.

33 of course. Might drop two points at Sheffield Utd.

One game at a time. If we are in the top eight by the time of the World Cup that will do for me.