Hello All

I have created a predictor spreadsheet. It is basically based of PPG. The simple formula is (Points/Games) *46 The league table is as follows

C Sheffield United 100
P Norwich 96
3 Reading 88
4 Burnley 75
5 Blackburn[/b] 75
6 QPR 75
7 Wigan Athletic 74
8 Watford 71
9 Sunderland 67
10 Luton 67
11 Rotherham 64
12 Swansea 63
13 Bristol City 59
14 Preston 54
15 Millwall 54
16 Birmingham City 54
17 Cardiff 50
18 Stoke City 50
19 Hull City 46
20 Blackpool 46
21 West Brom 42
22 Middlesbrough 42
23 Coventry City 35
24 Huddersfield 32

UTC

I expect us to finish top.Huddersfield, Boro and Rotherham to go down

This is just based off PPG at this point.

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:10 pm

This is just based off PPG at this point.

Have a look at previous seasons and see how reliable your PPG idea is then get back to us

Woodleyclaret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:01 pm

I expect us to finish top.Huddersfield, Boro and Rotherham to go down

That level of positivity will not be accepted on this forum.

We’ll finish third, behind Sheffield United and Norwich.

I wouldn’t expect Reading or Blackburn to make the play offs, either.

BurnleyFC wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:20 pm

We’ll finish third, behind Sheffield United and Norwich.

I wouldn’t expect Reading or Blackburn to make the play offs, either.

Imagine a Burnley v Blackburn play off final

Blackpool and Hull both got off to decent starts. Their recent results are probably a better reflection of their level. Both are in trouble

Whilst Boro and West Brom might not be in the promotion mix as expected pre-season no way either will be in a relegation scrap

Teams managed by Paul Ince tend to fade after a good start. Impressive from Reading so far but will be a surprise if they can sustain it

Feels about right as far as we are concerned

I am going to stick my neck on the line but I don't think we will get relegated

Nonayforever wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:22 pm

Imagine a Burnley v Blackburn play off final

Well on current from we wouldn't win it. We crack under any sort of pressure.

Billyblah wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:52 pm

Well on current from we wouldn't win it. We crack under any sort of pressure.

We go a goal up, looking unbeatable, and lose 2-1.

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:14 pm

Have a look at previous seasons and see how reliable your PPG idea is then get back to us

Will do. Currently working on 19/20 & 20/21 seasons to prove my theories

Fascinating stats provided by the OP who I suspect is a specialist in this area. I've emailed my bookie to see what odds I can get for getting all 24 teams in the right order so I'll see what they say.

I decided not to go for the exact number of points because even though I have 100% confidence in Hurstwoods calculations and methodology being spot on it doesn't take much for it to go wrong and lose the bet.

If anyone else is interested let me know and I'll pass you the bookies details and the odds they are offering me

Rovers mid table at best

Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:25 pm

Fascinating stats provided by the OP who I suspect is a specialist in this area. I've emailed my bookie to see what odds I can get for getting all 24 teams in the right order so I'll see what they say.

I decided not to go for the exact number of points because even though I have 100% confidence in Hurstwoods calculations and methodology being spot on it doesn't take much for it to go wrong and lose the bet.

If anyone else is interested let me know and I'll pass you the bookies details and the odds they are offering me

Thanks.

Although it may seem true, I’m not really a mathematician. Believe it or not, I’m just a self taught excel expert.
The only real ‘Maths’ that I have done it testing my formula on paper, then testing the excel functions to make sure they work.

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:14 pm

Have a look at previous seasons and see how reliable your PPG idea is then get back to us

You need to imagine this like a funnel. For instance, MW1 is the widest part. At this stage, you have some teams going up on 138 pts, some mid table with 46, some going down with 0 points. As the season goes on, the predictions should be more accurate.

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:56 pm

You need to imagine this like a funnel. For instance, MW1 is the widest part. At this stage, you have some teams going up on 138 pts, some mid table with 46, some going down with 0 points. As the season goes on, the predictions should be more accurate.

so its not the most acurate of predictors at this stage of the season then

Not really. It’s more accurate week by week

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:22 pm

Not really. It’s more accurate week by week

I bet it's almost perfect by week 44

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:22 pm

Not really. It’s more accurate week by week

Do you know big Dave who works in the William Hill bookies down Vicar Lane in Leeds?

I’ve just compared this to the current league table and it’s remarkable how similar the end of season standings will be if each team continues on the same form.

Struggle to get my head around sophisticated modelling so will have to just rely on the current league table which coincidentally happens to be very similar in terms of the ordering of the teams.

Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:29 pm

Do you know big Dave who works in the William Hill bookies down Vicar Lane in Leeds?

No

boatshed bill wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:25 pm

I bet it's almost perfect by week 44

It will be most accurate by 2:59 on the 6th May.

I'm not sure who is trolling who on this thread. For info, to clarify. Take a look at the current league table. That is all.

Lose 1-0 to Sheffield United at Wembley denied at least one clear penalty and have a player sent off- Karma

Well it was worth a try Hurstwood

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:44 pm

No

Ok thats strange cos I messaged him last night to get him to look in to what odds Id get for predicting the order of all 24 teams and (knowing Im a Burnley fan) he asked me if Im mates with that stats genius who does this every season. I told him I wasnt but got the tip from a random on a Burnley forum but he was having none of it and said no way are we giving you odd if the workings come from the Burnley Nemesis (thinks thats the nickname all the bookies have given you).

Anyway to cut a long story short it sounds like you are a bit more of an expert than I first thought and that you are blacklisted by a lot of the bookies. Anyone else thinking of placing a bet on the back of these predictions keep where you got the advice to yourself if I was you.

mdd2 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:58 am

Lose 1-0 to Sheffield United at Wembley denied at least one clear penalty and have a player sent off- Karma

Aye,good old Mike Dean.

Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:19 am

Ok thats strange cos I messaged him last night to get him to look in to what odds Id get for predicting the order of all 24 teams and (knowing Im a Burnley fan) he asked me if Im mates with that stats genius who does this every season. I told him I wasnt but got the tip from a random on a Burnley forum but he was having none of it and said no way are we giving you odd if the workings come from the Burnley Nemesis (thinks thats the nickname all the bookies have given you).

Anyway to cut a long story short it sounds like you are a bit more of an expert than I first thought and that you are blacklisted by a lot of the bookies. Anyone else thinking of placing a bet on the back of these predictions keep where you got the advice to yourself if I was you.

This is the first iteration of my predictor. I’m not old enough to place bets, so I’m okay with being blacklisted

Hurstwood_Claret wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:08 pm

This is the first iteration of my predictor. I’m not old enough to place bets, so I’m okay with being blacklisted

from the sounds of it you appear to be using newly learnt tools on Excel to extrapolate data, which is fine, however just using points per game is very simplistic and will reflect the current league table (what it can't do is allow for variances in number of games played for each team which is why it isn't totally correct).

What you could look to do next in your spreadsheet is look at the variances in team form perhaps and a good place to learn what you could possibly achieve would be the magic numbers link from previous seasons - which is and has been a fantastic tool for some of us to monitor the form of the team.

Good luck, and enjoy learning with Excel