The Middlesbrough math

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CrosspoolClarets
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:54 pm

edenclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:16 pm
Can anyone mathematically intelligent with 15 minutes to spare look at the fixtures and inform as to their best guess as to which match will be the most likely one that we win the title?
Blades at home on Easter Monday.

I think they will get 14 points before then, taking them to 78 with 96 possible by the end.

By that game we will have to get past 96 to have won the league, I think we will be on 91.

So a win against Blades at the Turf leaves us on 94 and them only being able to get 93 = the title.

Whether one of us has a delayed game due to the Cup is a factor, but I won’t be booking an Easter holiday that’s for sure.

p.s.this is with us extending our lead before then, so I cannot see it being sooner.
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by martin_p » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:10 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:24 pm
Does getting to the semifinal count as playing at Wembley in the traditional sense* because we've already played there just a few seasons ago against Spurs? ;)

*only the final should be played there btw.
Play-off final! Lose our last 12 games, get to the playoffs, then beat Rovers in the final at Wembley. Job done and we only need two wins!

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Big Vinny K » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:30 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:24 pm
Does getting to the semifinal count as playing at Wembley in the traditional sense* because we've already played there just a few seasons ago against Spurs? ;)

*only the final should be played there btw.
Completely agree.
Or to be accurate I used to completely agree until we had a serious chance of reaching the semi final.
My view is now it’s a great idea to have the semi finals at Wembley
Nowt so fickle as footy fans !

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:01 pm

Update after match 35 - our need to win has increased by 1 all round
If they win all 11 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 10 from 11 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 11 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 11 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 11 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 11 they have 78 points. We need to win 1

12 games to go
If they win all 12 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 11 from 12 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 10 from 12 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 9 from 12 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 12 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 12 they have 78 points.We need to win 1
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by MT03ALG » Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:53 pm

An average of 2 points per game i.e. 92 points generally guarantees promotion.
5 more wins from the last 11 games should see us finish in the top two and we have 5 more home games........

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:06 pm

NRC wrote:
Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:01 pm
Update after match 35 - our need to win has increased by 1 all round
If they win all 11 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 10 from 11 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 11 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 11 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 11 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 11 they have 78 points. We need to win 1

12 games to go
If they win all 12 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 11 from 12 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 10 from 12 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 9 from 12 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 12 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 12 they have 78 points.We need to win 1
Incorrect as you've not factored in draws.

Better just to accept that mathematically we're promoted.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:40 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:06 pm
Incorrect as you've not factored in draws.

Better just to accept that mathematically we're promoted.
The keyword, RB, is “IF.” As a result I do not need to take into account draws - by definition

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:00 pm

100%

Don't know if this message board is representative of the general feeling of Burnley fans, but , there's one hell of a lot of taking things for granted.

Time to wind our necks in and take the time honoured "let's just take each game at a time "

Celebrate when when there's something to celebrate shall we eh lads !?
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by basil6345789 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:10 am

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:00 pm
We are mathematically up. Stop fretting.
As in maths?

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by arise_sir_charge » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:40 am

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:00 pm
100%

Don't know if this message board is representative of the general feeling of Burnley fans, but , there's one hell of a lot of taking things for granted.

Time to wind our necks in and take the time honoured "let's just take each game at a time "

Celebrate when when there's something to celebrate shall we eh lads !?
We are up, anyone that is genuinely questioning this must worry about anything and everything.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Dark Cloud » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:47 am

agreenwood wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:32 pm
Last 10 years 3rd place points tally:

2021/22 = 82 (Huddersfield)
2020/21 = 87 (Brentford)
2019/20 = 81 (Brentford)
2018/19 = 83 (Leeds)
2017/18 = 88 (Fulham)
2016/17 = 85 (Reading)
2015/16 = 89 (Brighton)
2014/15 = 86 (Norwich)
2013/14 = 85 (Derby)
2012/13 = 77 (Watford)

Can’t see Boro getting a better tally than the best years from the above, so we’re looking at a maximum of 12 points required in my view.
As I've felt all along, 90 points is always guaranteed promotion, so another 13 needed however they are garnered.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by 1882Clarets1882 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:57 am

arise_sir_charge wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:40 am
We are up, anyone that is genuinely questioning this must worry about anything and everything.
How is suggesting we just take one game at a time worrying about anything and everything?

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by RVclaret » Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:03 am

Boro, on current form, should win all their games prior to the one against us, this includes one when we play in the cup.

Swansea away, Stoke home, Preston home, Huddersfield away. All teams either in awful form or nothing to really play for.

So that means, even if we win our next 3 the gap would be 14 points by the time we play them on Good Friday, making promotion impossible on that day whatever the result.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by taio » Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:17 am

RVclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:03 am
Boro, on current form, should win all their games prior to the one against us, this includes one when we play in the cup.

Swansea away, Stoke home, Preston home, Huddersfield away. All teams either in awful form or nothing to really play for.

So that means, even if we win our next 3 the gap would be 14 points by the time we play them on Good Friday, making promotion impossible on that day whatever the result.
Middlesbrough should win those games, but the Championship often throws up surprises especially as the season is drawing to an end. Like Stoke beating Sunderland 5-1 away on Saturday, and not many people thought we'd drop points at Blackpool.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by AGENT_CLARET » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:23 am

taio wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:17 am
Middlesbrough should win those games, but the Championship often throws up surprises especially as the season is drawing to an end. Like Stoke beating Sunderland 5-1 away on Saturday, and not many people thought we'd drop points at Blackpool.
We didn't drop any points at Blackpool

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by taio » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:24 am

AGENT_CLARET wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:23 am
We didn't drop any points at Blackpool
How come?

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by HiThere » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:29 am

taio wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:24 am
How come?
I think he means Sheffield United lost, so we went 1 point further ahead.
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by AGENT_CLARET » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:30 am

taio wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:24 am
How come?
Did we ever take the lead and then Blackpool equalised, No

Did we start the game with a goal start, No

When the game starts it's 0-0 so both have 1 point at that moment, if you win it turns into 3, if you lose you end the game with 0 points, we started with 1 ended with 1 so no points dropped
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by taio » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:33 am

AGENT_CLARET wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:30 am
Did we ever take the lead and then Blackpool equalised, No

Did we start the game with a goal start, No

When the game starts it's 0-0 so both have 1 point at that moment, if you win it turns into 3, if you lose you end the game with 0 points, we started with 1 ended with 1 so no points dropped
It's a different way of looking at it I suppose. When a team doesn't win a widespread way of describing it or a turn of phrase is dropping points.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by arise_sir_charge » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:24 am

1882Clarets1882 wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:57 am
How is suggesting we just take one game at a time worrying about anything and everything?
You suggested people are taking things for granted which further suggests you think it could all go wrong.

If you think that then you’re looking for something to worry about.

We are up, have been for weeks, enjoy the run in.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by 2 Bee Holed » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:27 am

Stalbansclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:02 pm
Maths
Exactly!

There are times when I think j live in the U.S.

Even then, to be strictly correct, this is Arithmetic, a branch of Mathematics.
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by tiger76 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:32 am

RVclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:03 am
Boro, on current form, should win all their games prior to the one against us, this includes one when we play in the cup.

Swansea away, Stoke home, Preston home, Huddersfield away. All teams either in awful form or nothing to really play for.

So that means, even if we win our next 3 the gap would be 14 points by the time we play them on Good Friday, making promotion impossible on that day whatever the result.
On paper that looks an easy run of fixtures, and Boro might will claim 12 points from them, however the pressure could start to tell as the season approaches it's end and points become more precious.

However even if they do there's no reason to fret as promotion is very much in our own hands, and we probably only need slightly more than a point a game to ensure going up, and on our present form we'll comfortably exceed that.
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by HiThere » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:35 am

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:32 am
On paper that looks an easy run of fixtures, and Boro might will claim 12 points from them, however the pressure could start to tell as the season approaches it's end and points become more precious.

However even if they do there's no reason to fret as promotion is very much in our own hands, and we probably only need slightly more than a point a game to ensure going up, and on our present form we'll comfortably exceed that.
We are by far the best in this division. Even if we were level on points with Boro we would finish with more points.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by RVclaret » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:36 am

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:32 am
On paper that looks an easy run of fixtures, and Boro might will claim 12 points from them, however the pressure could start to tell as the season approaches it's end and points become more precious.

However even if they do there's no reason to fret as promotion is very much in our own hands, and we probably only need slightly more than a point a game to ensure going up, and on our present form we'll comfortably exceed that.
Oh yeah, no fretting at all, we are up - but I think it might be done a bit later than the Easter weekend.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by HiThere » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:40 am

RVclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:36 am
Oh yeah, no fretting at all, we are up - but I think it might be done a bit later than the Easter weekend.
April 25th?

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by RVclaret » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:41 am

HiThere wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:40 am
April 25th?
I’m thinking Reading or Rotherham away

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by HiThere » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:46 am

RVclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:41 am
I’m thinking Reading or Rotherham away
I was messing a bit as that's when we play Rovers. But I don't want to wait that long.

I'm going off 10 points clear so could be QPR at home.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by jlup1980 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:53 pm

The rest of the league have had us and Sheff Utd up since Christmas. Boro have been playing catch up and it's much easier to do that than stay in front, especially when someone is closing in. If Boro catch Sheff Utd it'll come with a change of mindset. Suddenly it'll be theirs to lose and that's a whole new ball game.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:01 pm

RVclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:41 am
I’m thinking Reading or Rotherham away
I said in post #6 3 more wins, which would have made it Hull away, but with the BLackpool draw, I now feel we’ll secure promotion at home against Sunderland…. But we won’t know that until retrospectively. That’s where the did is done in my view

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Hipper » Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:18 pm

HiThere wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:35 am
We are by far the best in this division. Even if we were level on points with Boro we would finish with more points.
:D

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:06 pm

NRC wrote:
Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:01 pm
Update after match 35 - our need to win has increased by 1 all round
If they win all 11 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 10 from 11 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 11 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 11 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 11 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 11 they have 78 points. We need to win 1

12 games to go
If they win all 12 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 11 from 12 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 10 from 12 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 9 from 12 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 12 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 12 they have 78 points.We need to win 1
Updated: 10 games to go. All moves one game less we need for each (doesn’t take draws into account). In other words the absolute most we need to win is half of our games. I think we’re two wins away, which we won’t know for sure until we have a retrospective view

If they win all 10 they have 93 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 10 they have 90 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 10 they have 87 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 10 they have 84 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 10 they have 81 points. We need to win 1

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by D8BFC » Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:36 pm

Or… win the next 4 and it’s done

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Bosscat » Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:59 pm

D8BFC wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:36 pm
Or… win the next 4 and it’s done
Easy peasy 👍😉
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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by jurek » Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:15 pm

Or win 3, draw 3

Boro' would then need to win all their remaining games bar one
and get a draw in that one. And score a lot of goals too.

I'd be surprised and probably shocked if we didn't manage to win
at least 3 of our remaining games.

But I think we all (including VK) would wish to go up as Champions
regardless of how many games we win.

Not bothered how we do it but it would be nice if we could seal
it at home to a packed Turf with every fan given a claret and blue flag.

Oh, and everyone (including Pace, VK, the players and all staff)
singing 'When you're Smiling...'

Now that would be something to behold.
And remember for decades to come.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:44 pm

NRC wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:06 pm
pdate after match 35 - our need to win has increased by 1 all round
If they win all 11 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 10 from 11 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 11 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 11 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 11 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 11 they have 78 points. We need to win 1

12 games to go
If they win all 12 they have 93 points. We need to win 6
If they win 11 from 12 they have 90 points. We need to win 5
If they win 10 from 12 they have 87 points. We need to win 4
If they win 9 from 12 they have 84 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 12 they have 81 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 12 they have 78 points.We need to win 1

Updated: 10 games to go. All moves one game less we need for each (doesn’t take draws into account). In other words the absolute most we need to win is half of our games. I think we’re two wins away, which we won’t know for sure until we have a retrospective view

If they win all 10 they have 93 points. We need to win 5
If they win 9 from 10 they have 90 points. We need to win 4
If they win 8 from 10 they have 87 points. We need to win 3
If they win 7 from 10 they have 84 points. We need to win 2
If they win 6 from 10 they have 81 points. We need to win 1
Another update after 37 games, nine games to go
If they win all 9 they have 91 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 9 they have 88 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 9 they have 85 points. We need to win 1
If they win 6 from 9 we don't care

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by CnBtruntru » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:50 pm

If they win 6 from 9 we don't care

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Carport » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:54 pm

NRC wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:44 pm
Another update after 37 games, nine games to go
If they win all 9 they have 91 points. We need to win 3
If they win 8 from 9 they have 88 points. We need to win 2
If they win 7 from 9 they have 85 points. We need to win 1
If they win 6 from 9 we don't care
We just need to win the next two

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by martin_p » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:54 pm

I think the points we’ve got tonight will prove to be the ones that get us promoted, can’t see Boro getting to 83 points.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by NRC » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:56 pm

In other words, the maximum we need to win is 3 from 9 and there's nothing anyone can do. In reality, and if we had a time machine to go into the future, we're probably already up

lol - I was typing the same thing Martin.
Last edited by NRC on Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Milltown1882 » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:57 pm

We’re up but winning those next two then a promotion party at home to Sheffield United on Easter Monday. Amazing.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by timshorts » Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:57 pm

Or we can win none but draw them all. That's enough to get us up now.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by martin_p » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:02 pm

You probably need to add the Luton maths into this. They’re only a point behind Boro and in better form at the moment.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:03 pm

Sky saying we need another 9 points

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by ChrisG » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:03 pm

martin_p wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:02 pm
You probably need to add the Luton maths into this. They’re only a point behind Boro and in better form at the moment.
They can only get 90 points though, so even less likely to catch us

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by gandhisflipflop » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:04 pm

2 wins will do it, the second game is at Middlesbrough so we win there and it seals it.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by ChrisG » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:04 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:03 pm
Sky saying we need another 9 points
The most anyone can get is 91, so 9 points will guarantee it

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by gandhisflipflop » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:04 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:03 pm
Sky saying we need another 9 points
They are talking shite. They haven’t realised that we play Middlesbrough

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:05 pm

gandhisflipflop wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:04 pm
They are talking shite. They haven’t realised that we play Middlesbrough
exactly !!

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by martin_p » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:06 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:03 pm
Sky saying we need another 9 points
Sky can do maths then! Although we only need six points if three of them are against Boro.

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Re: The Middlesbrough math

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:06 pm

martin_p wrote:
Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:06 pm
Sky can do maths then! Although we only need six points if three of them are against Boro.
what is this IF stuff ? :D

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