Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.

No doubt the energy companies will delay passing on the cut in prices to the consumers as long as possible

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm

...Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

You've gotta love an optimist

On energy I was shocked to read this yesterday, “ Mathieu Flamini is a co-founder of GF Biochemicals, the first company in the world able to mass-produce levulinic acid.”
This is a petrol substitute and he currently has a net worth of £10b.
Not bad for a gooner midfielder.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm

Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.

Steady on a bit, Lowbank, you are only quoting day ahead UK natgas prices I believe, according to the chart you have posted. A little bit of "fear" in the stock markets around possible weaknesses in the banking system will quickly tilt expected gas demand to lower levels, and so result in near term gas prices falling. Where are the longer term gas prices? We are moving into summer, when, all other things being equal wholesale gas prices will always be lower. Are you able to post details of Winter 2023/24 gas prices? If those are lower then we may be looking at coming out of these extremely high energy prices. Similarly, look at what gas year October 2023 to September 2024 is doing, along with calendar year 2024 gas prices.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65000182

https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

B.6 All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot,
and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate
greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net zero CO2 emissions are
reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.
(high confidence).

Tricky Trevor wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:26 pm

On energy I was shocked to read this yesterday, “ Mathieu Flamini is a co-founder of GF Biochemicals, the first company in the world able to mass-produce levulinic acid.”
This is a petrol substitute and he currently has a net worth of £10b.
Not bad for a gooner midfielder.

Not sure it's a petrol substitute, their website says it's a substitute for petroleum based chemicals and materials.

Clever and exciting development nevertheless.

http://www.gfbiochemicals.com/company/

I was at my elderly parents yesterday shivering but how we laughed at the irony when I reminded them they caused all this by rushing to sign up for the utilities privatisation share offers way back then.

Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm

Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.

Yeah… amazing in how a hike in wholesale prices/crude seems to get passed on very quickly, yet when it drops it takes weeks….

Never understood that immediate increase in petrol/diesel prices especially when you consider the stuff you are buying that’s already in the tanks was refined at the old price….

ClaretLoup wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm

Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?

Supply and demand

Paul Waine wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:51 pm

Steady on a bit, Lowbank, you are only quoting day ahead UK natgas prices I believe, according to the chart you have posted. A little bit of "fear" in the stock markets around possible weaknesses in the banking system will quickly tilt expected gas demand to lower levels, and so result in near term gas prices falling. Where are the longer term gas prices? We are moving into summer, when, all other things being equal wholesale gas prices will always be lower. Are you able to post details of Winter 2023/24 gas prices? If those are lower then we may be looking at coming out of these extremely high energy prices. Similarly, look at what gas year October 2023 to September 2024 is doing, along with calendar year 2024 gas prices.

As I understand it, not claiming to be an expert, just what I have read and watched utube videos on. Just some points

The EU were bidding against each other causing high spikes, now acting as a Co-operative and distributing as needed to EU members.
EU stores 90% full due to a warm winter. Norway doubling deliveries.
US shipping liquid gas to the UK which we then pipe to the EU.

Russia increased deliveries by 10% after restricting deliveries before the invasion.

All of a sudden there is more gas available, hence prices fall.

Don’t think there is any need to worry about next winter. We are in a good place now.

They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.

ClaretLoup wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm

Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?

I think , but happy to be contradicted.

Russia is selling its oil at a heavy discount to China and India amongst others.

That’s reduced demand for the normal producers and hence it’s also dropping,apparently.

Socrates wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm

They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.

All I would say, if it drops more. We should be contacting our MP’s Be a massive thing for the Tories to declare a big win on this.

AfloatinClaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:21 pm

You've gotta love an optimist

Otherwise known as a realist.

Socrates wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm

They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.

And the shower currently not in charge would undoubtedly do it differently…..

They all love dipping in for their 20%… regardless of which colour rosette they wear.

Do they?

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:00 pm

As I understand it, not claiming to be an expert, just what I have read and watched utube videos on. Just some points

The EU were bidding against each other causing high spikes, now acting as a Co-operative and distributing as needed to EU members.
EU stores 90% full due to a warm winter. Norway doubling deliveries.
US shipping liquid gas to the UK which we then pipe to the EU.

Russia increased deliveries by 10% after restricting deliveries before the invasion.

All of a sudden there is more gas available, hence prices fall.

Don’t think there is any need to worry about next winter. We are in a good place now.

So, when I was working this was the area I worked in for all the major commodities. One day's natgas price makes no difference, it can be up it can be down, a day later it can be somewhere else. The markets trade much further out on the forward curves. If I contract to buy day-ahead gas today, I'm only buying for tomorrow, Tuesday 21st March in this case. But, I can also trade April 2023, May 2023, June 2023 and so on month by month. Or I can trade the forward quarters, of the summer gas season or the winter gas season and so on. It's the contracts further along the curve that make the difference to the market price. The prices we pay in the residential consumer markets are never impacted by day-ahead prices, that's just a "blip" either up or down that the wholesalers have to deal with.

In terms of the three things you mention: US shipping LNG to UK and other European LNG terminals (Germany started the winter with none) was a big help in filling Germany's gas storage and yes, it got above 90%. The warm winter has been a tremendous help for all of us. It has reduced the demand for heating to more modest levels, so the natgas in storage has remained in storage longer. Warmer weather means that the suppliers who had bought to meet higher levels of expected demand have had to sell their excess supply back into the wholesale market - if you've bought X amount of natgas to be delivered every day in February, for example, and February is warmer than you expected you have to sell the excess to keep in balance. As for the EU, I've no idea how their co-operation was supposed to work or if it did have any effect. Politicians and civil servants are usually seen in the markets.

ClaretLoup wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm

Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?

As already posted, supply and demand can explain the crude oil price at any time. The collapse of svb and concerns that the world is heading into a new global banking crisis is the reason the latest fall has happened. Dated Brent is down $11/bbl from 9 March when svb announced losses and then US regulators seized control. It was assessed by Platts at $71.705 on 20th March.

evensteadiereddie wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:17 pm

Do they?

Definitely.....but pointless debating it on here, the door would be shut very quickly