Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Post Reply
Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm

Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.
This user liked this post: KateR

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm

5CBEE856-D2E7-4376-A18A-25F4FF61A40E.png
5CBEE856-D2E7-4376-A18A-25F4FF61A40E.png (1.27 MiB) Viewed 2192 times

Bosscat
Posts: 25361
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:51 am
Been Liked: 8426 times
Has Liked: 18095 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Bosscat » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:21 pm

No doubt the energy companies will delay passing on the cut in prices to the consumers as long as possible 😠

AfloatinClaret
Posts: 1826
Joined: Sat May 26, 2018 7:16 pm
Been Liked: 559 times
Has Liked: 1392 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by AfloatinClaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:21 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm
...Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.
You've gotta love an optimist

Tricky Trevor
Posts: 8322
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:06 pm
Been Liked: 2439 times
Has Liked: 1978 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Tricky Trevor » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:26 pm

On energy I was shocked to read this yesterday, “ Mathieu Flamini is a co-founder of GF Biochemicals, the first company in the world able to mass-produce levulinic acid.”
This is a petrol substitute and he currently has a net worth of £10b.
Not bad for a gooner midfielder.
This user liked this post: KateR

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:51 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm
Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.
Steady on a bit, Lowbank, you are only quoting day ahead UK natgas prices I believe, according to the chart you have posted. A little bit of "fear" in the stock markets around possible weaknesses in the banking system will quickly tilt expected gas demand to lower levels, and so result in near term gas prices falling. Where are the longer term gas prices? We are moving into summer, when, all other things being equal wholesale gas prices will always be lower. Are you able to post details of Winter 2023/24 gas prices? If those are lower then we may be looking at coming out of these extremely high energy prices. Similarly, look at what gas year October 2023 to September 2024 is doing, along with calendar year 2024 gas prices.

Hipper
Posts: 5681
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:33 pm
Been Liked: 1175 times
Has Liked: 918 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Hipper » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:57 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65000182

https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

B.6 All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot,
and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate
greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade.
Global net zero CO2 emissions are
reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.
(high confidence).

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:59 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:26 pm
On energy I was shocked to read this yesterday, “ Mathieu Flamini is a co-founder of GF Biochemicals, the first company in the world able to mass-produce levulinic acid.”
This is a petrol substitute and he currently has a net worth of £10b.
Not bad for a gooner midfielder.
Not sure it's a petrol substitute, their website says it's a substitute for petroleum based chemicals and materials.

Clever and exciting development nevertheless.

http://www.gfbiochemicals.com/company/

Garnerssoap
Posts: 1348
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:50 pm
Been Liked: 392 times
Has Liked: 514 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Garnerssoap » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:03 pm

I was at my elderly parents yesterday shivering but how we laughed at the irony when I reminded them they caused all this by rushing to sign up for the utilities privatisation share offers way back then.

ClaretLoup
Posts: 1828
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:35 pm
Been Liked: 534 times
Has Liked: 185 times
Location: Retirement Home in Suffolk

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by ClaretLoup » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm

Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?

bobinho
Posts: 9247
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:48 pm
Been Liked: 4069 times
Has Liked: 6535 times
Location: Burnley

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by bobinho » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:15 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:59 pm
Gas and oil prices dropped a fair bit last week and today gas dropped by 10%. It’s down to 95p per therm. Another 20-30p drop and we gas will be back to normal prices, though it might be a while before we get it passed on.
Oil has dropped so normally that follows at the pumps within a few weeks.

Hope it’s good news for all.
Yeah… amazing in how a hike in wholesale prices/crude seems to get passed on very quickly, yet when it drops it takes weeks….

Never understood that immediate increase in petrol/diesel prices especially when you consider the stuff you are buying that’s already in the tanks was refined at the old price….

Bosscat
Posts: 25361
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:51 am
Been Liked: 8426 times
Has Liked: 18095 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Bosscat » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:24 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm
Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?
Supply and demand 🤔

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:00 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:51 pm
Steady on a bit, Lowbank, you are only quoting day ahead UK natgas prices I believe, according to the chart you have posted. A little bit of "fear" in the stock markets around possible weaknesses in the banking system will quickly tilt expected gas demand to lower levels, and so result in near term gas prices falling. Where are the longer term gas prices? We are moving into summer, when, all other things being equal wholesale gas prices will always be lower. Are you able to post details of Winter 2023/24 gas prices? If those are lower then we may be looking at coming out of these extremely high energy prices. Similarly, look at what gas year October 2023 to September 2024 is doing, along with calendar year 2024 gas prices.
As I understand it, not claiming to be an expert, just what I have read and watched utube videos on. Just some points

The EU were bidding against each other causing high spikes, now acting as a Co-operative and distributing as needed to EU members.
EU stores 90% full due to a warm winter. Norway doubling deliveries.
US shipping liquid gas to the UK which we then pipe to the EU.

Russia increased deliveries by 10% after restricting deliveries before the invasion.

All of a sudden there is more gas available, hence prices fall.

Don’t think there is any need to worry about next winter. We are in a good place now.

Socrates
Posts: 846
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:45 pm
Been Liked: 912 times
Has Liked: 5 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Socrates » Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm

They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm
Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?
I think , but happy to be contradicted.

Russia is selling its oil at a heavy discount to China and India amongst others.

That’s reduced demand for the normal producers and hence it’s also dropping,apparently.

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 6571
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 1233 times
Has Liked: 56 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:13 pm

Socrates wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm
They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.
All I would say, if it drops more. We should be contacting our MP’s Be a massive thing for the Tories to declare a big win on this.

AmbleClaret
Posts: 503
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:53 pm
Been Liked: 207 times
Has Liked: 110 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by AmbleClaret » Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:46 pm

AfloatinClaret wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:21 pm
You've gotta love an optimist
Otherwise known as a realist.
This user liked this post: Stayingup

bobinho
Posts: 9247
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:48 pm
Been Liked: 4069 times
Has Liked: 6535 times
Location: Burnley

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by bobinho » Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:57 pm

Socrates wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:07 pm
They’ve established that people will pay this price now. Why would they drop it?

And this shower in charge won’t do anything about it.
And the shower currently not in charge would undoubtedly do it differently…..

They all love dipping in for their 20%… regardless of which colour rosette they wear.

evensteadiereddie
Posts: 9585
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:45 pm
Been Liked: 3146 times
Has Liked: 10202 times
Location: Staffordshire

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by evensteadiereddie » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:17 pm

Do they?

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:32 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:00 pm
As I understand it, not claiming to be an expert, just what I have read and watched utube videos on. Just some points

The EU were bidding against each other causing high spikes, now acting as a Co-operative and distributing as needed to EU members.
EU stores 90% full due to a warm winter. Norway doubling deliveries.
US shipping liquid gas to the UK which we then pipe to the EU.

Russia increased deliveries by 10% after restricting deliveries before the invasion.

All of a sudden there is more gas available, hence prices fall.

Don’t think there is any need to worry about next winter. We are in a good place now.
So, when I was working this was the area I worked in for all the major commodities. One day's natgas price makes no difference, it can be up it can be down, a day later it can be somewhere else. The markets trade much further out on the forward curves. If I contract to buy day-ahead gas today, I'm only buying for tomorrow, Tuesday 21st March in this case. But, I can also trade April 2023, May 2023, June 2023 and so on month by month. Or I can trade the forward quarters, of the summer gas season or the winter gas season and so on. It's the contracts further along the curve that make the difference to the market price. The prices we pay in the residential consumer markets are never impacted by day-ahead prices, that's just a "blip" either up or down that the wholesalers have to deal with.

In terms of the three things you mention: US shipping LNG to UK and other European LNG terminals (Germany started the winter with none) was a big help in filling Germany's gas storage and yes, it got above 90%. The warm winter has been a tremendous help for all of us. It has reduced the demand for heating to more modest levels, so the natgas in storage has remained in storage longer. Warmer weather means that the suppliers who had bought to meet higher levels of expected demand have had to sell their excess supply back into the wholesale market - if you've bought X amount of natgas to be delivered every day in February, for example, and February is warmer than you expected you have to sell the excess to keep in balance. As for the EU, I've no idea how their co-operation was supposed to work or if it did have any effect. Politicians and civil servants are usually seen in the markets.
This user liked this post: Hipper

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:44 pm

ClaretLoup wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:14 pm
Oil price has dropped to $65 a barrel from a peak of $120 in June 22. It’s dropped $15 in the last month.

Anyone have an explanation for this phenomenon?
As already posted, supply and demand can explain the crude oil price at any time. The collapse of svb and concerns that the world is heading into a new global banking crisis is the reason the latest fall has happened. Dated Brent is down $11/bbl from 9 March when svb announced losses and then US regulators seized control. It was assessed by Platts at $71.705 on 20th March.
This user liked this post: Hipper

Nori1958
Posts: 3833
Joined: Tue May 03, 2022 10:45 am
Been Liked: 1112 times
Has Liked: 347 times

Re: Hopefully good news on the energy crisis.

Post by Nori1958 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:09 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:17 pm
Do they?
Definitely.....but pointless debating it on here, the door would be shut very quickly

Post Reply