Big news coming soon from the Turf (Sean Dyche sacked)

[elwaclaret]

I don't need to be careful. I'm happy to repeat that Pace relied upon the club's cash reserves in order to buy the club and the size of those cash reserves occurred because of a lack of player purchases in Garlick's final transfer window.

So why do you need to argue the point with someone you don’t know. I know quite a lot and never feel the need to argue with strangers who disagree, only to try to make them open their minds to other possibilities.

[Paul Waine]

I don't need to be careful. I'm happy to repeat that Pace relied upon the club's cash reserves in order to buy the club and the size of those cash reserves occurred because of a lack of player purchases in Garlick's final transfer window.

Hi taio, no worries you not wanting to "be careful." You know the transfer window closed some months before ALK agreed their deal to buy the club. I admit I forget the date it closed in 2020, because of covid-19 lockdown etc. Let's say there were either 3 full months of wages to pay after the transfer window closed. Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC

[taio]

So why do you need to argue the point with someone you don’t know. I know quite a lot and never feel the need to argue with strangers who disagree, only to try to make them open their minds to other possibilities.

I didn't realise it was an argument - I thought I was putting forward my point of view and explaining why I have concerns about the financial structure of our club and the risks if we get relegated and don't quickly return.

[taio]

Hi taio, no worries you not wanting to "be careful." You know the transfer window closed some months before ALK agreed their deal to buy the club. I admit I forget the date it closed in 2020, because of covid-19 lockdown etc. Let's say there were either 3 full months of wages to pay after the transfer window closed. Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC

I am under the impression £30m-£40m cash reserves were used as part of the acquisition - is that wrong?

[Paul Waine]

I am under the impression £30m-£40m cash reserves were used as part of the acquisition - is that wrong?

Those are the figures that are most often referred to. The accounts, for year to 31-July-2021 are due to be filed at Companies House by the end of this month. So, we may learn more/understand more when we can read the accounts.

[paulatky]

Hi taio, no worries you not wanting to "be careful." You know the transfer window closed some months before ALK agreed their deal to buy the club. I admit I forget the date it closed in 2020, because of covid-19 lockdown etc. Let's say there were either 3 full months of wages to pay after the transfer window closed. Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC

Have you not heard of cashflow projections ?

[Paul Waine]

Have you not heard of cashflow projections ?

Hi paulatky, yes, I've heard of cashflow projections. More than that, I may have been one of the first posters on this mb to suggest that people think about cashflow projections when they think about the club's finances. I've also posted that I'd expect Alan Pace and similar, experienced investment bankers to have better understanding of cashflow projections and cashflow management than others who don't have working experience in those areas.

[elwaclaret]

I didn't realise it was an argument - I thought I was putting forward my point of view and explaining why I have concerns about the financial structure of our club and the risks if we get relegated and don't quickly return.

We all share you concern. And sorry, you may have misunderstood as a historian every ‘discussion’ is an ‘argument’ (it doen’t mean that we are arguing) - a grouping of historians is known as an ‘Argument of Historians’ (i.e. debate)

[paulatky]

Hi paulatky, yes, I've heard of cashflow projections. More than that, I may have been one of the first posters on this mb to suggest that people think about cashflow projections when they think about the club's finances. I've also posted that I'd expect Alan Pace and similar, experienced investment bankers to have better understanding of cashflow projections and cashflow management than others who don't have working experience in those areas.

So if you think the purchase price was going to be based on the cash reserves on a future date then that would have been fairly easy to work out using cashflow forecasts

And that was your post I was replying to

[Paul Waine]

So if you think the purchase price was going to be based on the cash reserves on a future date then that would have been fairly easy to work out using cashflow forecasts

And that was your post I was replying to

Yes, I know you were replying to my post. But, my posts weren't suggesting that the purchase price was determined by the available cash balances (reserves, or otherwise) at the date of the acquisition.

[paulatky]

Yes, I know you were replying to my post. But, my posts weren't suggesting that the purchase price was determined by the available cash balances (reserves, or otherwise) at the date of the acquisition.

You need to reread your post , especially the last 2 sentences

[Paul Waine]

You need to reread your post , especially the last 2 sentences

OK. I've re-read my posts. I've also gone back to the statement in the original post that I was replying to. I believe what I've posted makes sense in this context. However, I feel I'm missing what it is you are trying to say. No worries. I'm happy if you wish to explain further.

[paulatky]

[quote="Paul Waine Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC
[/quote]

I have made it easy for you. See your post above which concludes” So with those other things going on reducing cash in the club’s bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price”

[spt_claret]

OK. I've re-read my posts. I've also gone back to the statement in the original post that I was replying to. I believe what I've posted makes sense in this context. However, I feel I'm missing what it is you are trying to say. No worries. I'm happy if you wish to explain further.

I believe his point (and paulatky is free to correct me if I'm wrong) is that given cashflow projections and understanding of the value of the asset in question (the club, and in this particular case, its cash reserves) you could estimate the value and therefore arrive at an offer price, if you knew the cash reserves had been frozen & were committed to the sale, even accounting for wages, agent fees, transfer amortisations etc. You wouldn't have the full cash reserve available in the summer window, but would be able to arrive at an estimate for what that reserve would be 3 months later at the time of the deal, so could make a bid using these estimated reserves accordingly.

[spt_claret]

[quote="Paul Waine Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC

I have made it easy for you. See your post above which concludes” So with those other things going on reducing cash in the club’s bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price”
[/quote]
You need to spell it out for certain members, he's consistently been one of them. You get politician's answers otherwise.

[NewClaret]

Those are the figures that are most often referred to. The accounts, for year to 31-July-2021 are due to be filed at Companies House by the end of this month. So, we may learn more/understand more when we can read the accounts.

Hope you’re feeling better Paul?

I haven’t been following all the various threads on the takeover because I find most are heated conjecture. We know very little about the debt or clubs cash used to fund the takeover, from what I can tell. Actually, very little more now than we did back on day one. So I can’t see the point in debating things we know little about.

What we do know was that we had £80m cash before the takeover and that can only have been accumulated because we opted caution over investment. Only Mike Garlick knows why he chose that path and why he then sanctioned a leveraged takeover. And nobody knows if we’d been in a better or worse position if he’d trodden a different path (ironically one of the reasons I was pro the takeover was because I felt it would allow us to keep Dyche - a reason now null and void).

But Pace said it was a “beautiful deal” and given Garlicks proclamations of stewardship I’m going to take that to mean it’s been structured in such a way that the club is not at significant risk. Perhaps naïve on my behalf but I’d rather see good in people/a situation before I see bad. This struck me from Pace’s most recent interview:

We are putting up money to change some things, and we are trying to get it to a good place but it is all a work in progress. I think people over time will come to understand and love the way we are going about it.

Suggests to me they are putting up money to reduce the debt and that’s obviously a good thing.

[Paul Waine]

I believe his point (and paulatky is free to correct me if I'm wrong) is that given cashflow projections and understanding of the value of the asset in question (the club, and in this particular case, its cash reserves) you could estimate the value and therefore arrive at an offer price, if you knew the cash reserves had been frozen & were committed to the sale, even accounting for wages, agent fees, transfer amortisations etc. You wouldn't have the full cash reserve available in the summer window, but would be able to arrive at an estimate for what that reserve would be 3 months later at the time of the deal, so could make a bid using these estimated reserves accordingly.

Hi spt, I'm no clearer having any idea what paulatky, and now you are on about. As I said earlier to paulatky, and if you are joining in, I recommend you go back to the original post I was responding to.

All getting a bit pointless. It's not going to bring Sean Dyche back to Turf Moor. It's not going to get the Clarets the points we need to stay in the Premier League.

[Chester Perry]

Hope you’re feeling better Paul?

I haven’t been following all the various threads on the takeover because I find most are heated conjecture. We know very little about the debt or clubs cash used to fund the takeover, from what I can tell. Actually, very little more now than we did back on day one. So I can’t see the point in debating things we know little about.

What we do know was that we had £80m cash before the takeover and that can only have been accumulated because we opted caution over investment. Only Mike Garlick knows why he chose that path and why he then sanctioned a leveraged takeover. And nobody knows if we’d been in a better or worse position if he’d trodden a different path (ironically one of the reasons I was pro the takeover was because I felt it would allow us to keep Dyche - a reason now null and void).

But Pace said it was a “beautiful deal” and given Garlicks proclamations of stewardship I’m going to take that to mean it’s been structured in such a way that the club is not at significant risk. Perhaps naïve on my behalf but I’d rather see good in people/a situation before I see bad. This struck me from Pace’s most recent interview:

We are putting up money to change some things, and we are trying to get it to a good place but it is all a work in progress. I think people over time will come to understand and love the way we are going about it.

Suggests to me they are putting up money to reduce the debt and that’s obviously a good thing.

Whose money and for what things?

I took that as the money spent on the hospitality, LED signs, matchday experience, new players and the women;s team - which is all the clubs money from what I can see

Interesting to see how others are taking it - I hope you are right, I just doubt it

[Newcastleclaret93]

Hope you’re feeling better Paul?

I haven’t been following all the various threads on the takeover because I find most are heated conjecture. We know very little about the debt or clubs cash used to fund the takeover, from what I can tell. Actually, very little more now than we did back on day one. So I can’t see the point in debating things we know little about.

What we do know was that we had £80m cash before the takeover and that can only have been accumulated because we opted caution over investment. Only Mike Garlick knows why he chose that path and why he then sanctioned a leveraged takeover. And nobody knows if we’d been in a better or worse position if he’d trodden a different path (ironically one of the reasons I was pro the takeover was because I felt it would allow us to keep Dyche - a reason now null and void).

But Pace said it was a “beautiful deal” and given Garlicks proclamations of stewardship I’m going to take that to mean it’s been structured in such a way that the club is not at significant risk. Perhaps naïve on my behalf but I’d rather see good in people/a situation before I see bad. This struck me from Pace’s most recent interview:

We are putting up money to change some things, and we are trying to get it to a good place but it is all a work in progress. I think people over time will come to understand and love the way we are going about it.

Suggests to me they are putting up money to reduce the debt and that’s obviously a good thing.

I suspect you are being naive.

General rule of thumb, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck. It’s usually a duck.

[Paul Waine]

Hope you’re feeling better Paul?

I haven’t been following all the various threads on the takeover because I find most are heated conjecture. We know very little about the debt or clubs cash used to fund the takeover, from what I can tell. Actually, very little more now than we did back on day one. So I can’t see the point in debating things we know little about.

What we do know was that we had £80m cash before the takeover and that can only have been accumulated because we opted caution over investment. Only Mike Garlick knows why he chose that path and why he then sanctioned a leveraged takeover. And nobody knows if we’d been in a better or worse position if he’d trodden a different path (ironically one of the reasons I was pro the takeover was because I felt it would allow us to keep Dyche - a reason now null and void).

But Pace said it was a “beautiful deal” and given Garlicks proclamations of stewardship I’m going to take that to mean it’s been structured in such a way that the club is not at significant risk. Perhaps naïve on my behalf but I’d rather see good in people/a situation before I see bad. This struck me from Pace’s most recent interview:

We are putting up money to change some things, and we are trying to get it to a good place but it is all a work in progress. I think people over time will come to understand and love the way we are going about it.

Suggests to me they are putting up money to reduce the debt and that’s obviously a good thing.

Hi New, yes, feeling much better thanks. (A day late for the West Ham game). First time with covid-19 all the way back earlier than March 2020. Taken more than a week to shake off, but breathing easily again now.

When did Alan Pace make the statement you quote?

I'm looking forward to seeing 31-July-2021 accounts. They are due to be filed by the end of the month.

UTC

[taio]

Hi New, yes, feeling much better thanks. (A day late for the West Ham game). First time with covid-19 all the way back earlier than March 2020. Taken more than a week to shake off, but breathing easily again now.

When did Alan Pace make the statement you quote?

I'm looking forward to seeing 31-July-2021 accounts. They are due to be filed by the end of the month.

UTC

It's from this article: https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... 706980.amp

If we go down I won't be finding many of Pace's words reassuring.

[Paul Waine]

It's from this article: https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... 706980.amp

If we go down I won't be finding many of Pace's words reassuring.

Thanks for link.

[NewClaret]

Whose money and for what things?

I took that as the money spent on the hospitality, LED signs, matchday experience, new players and the women;s team - which is all the clubs money from what I can see

Interesting to see how others are taking it - I hope you are right, I just doubt it

I read “we are putting up money” to mean ALK are putting up money (or, more likely, their investors). And “good place” to mean more sustainable financial position. But that the process will take time. Which is worrying given our time in the prem seems to be fast running out.

Anyway, you could read in to it differently, I suppose. That’s my whole point about this topic - we’re short on facts and high on speculation. So nobody can be right!

[NewClaret]

I suspect you are being naive.

General rule of thumb, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck. It’s usually a duck.

Quite possibly. And let me be clear - if this leveraged buy out fecks us over it’ll be Garlick I hold accountable. He ran us well, saved the cash we needed for relegation (instead of investing in the team/club) and then allowed a leveraged buy out to go through that required some of said cash pile to fund it. Pace equally complicit of course, but he is neither a local man or someone who claimed very publicly to be a custodian of the club.

Given the choice, I’d likely prefer we turned back the clock and stayed with Garlick in charge and cash rich/investment poor. Albeit if the mechanisms discussed are included in the deal, that might be where we end back up anyhow.

Neither of us know for sure, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

[NewClaret]

Hi New, yes, feeling much better thanks. (A day late for the West Ham game). First time with covid-19 all the way back earlier than March 2020. Taken more than a week to shake off, but breathing easily again now.

Glad to hear it mate & sorry you missed the WHU match. Would’ve been an entertaining one!

[dsr]

Hi taio, no worries you not wanting to "be careful." You know the transfer window closed some months before ALK agreed their deal to buy the club. I admit I forget the date it closed in 2020, because of covid-19 lockdown etc. Let's say there were either 3 full months of wages to pay after the transfer window closed. Let's also say that there may have been some movements on cash balances with respect to transfers in previous seasons. Then there will be HMRC PAYE and NIC to settle. So, with those other things going on reducing the cash in the club's bank account, how is ALK going to agree on the purchase price?

UTC

They would know how much cash they have, how much cash is due to come in from PL and from transfers, how much is due to go out on transfers and wages and PAYE, and how much typically goes out on admin costs. Working out a future cash balance would be trivial.

[ClaretPete001]

Hi New, yes, feeling much better thanks. (A day late for the West Ham game). First time with covid-19 all the way back earlier than March 2020. Taken more than a week to shake off, but breathing easily again now.

When did Alan Pace make the statement you quote?

I'm looking forward to seeing 31-July-2021 accounts. They are due to be filed by the end of the month.

UTC

I don't know how much you are going to learn from those. BFC is now part of a group and you would really need to see the group accounts to get a true picture of what is going on.

[KRBFC]

Nixon has a story on us tomorrow.

Anyone know it?

[NewClaret]

Anyone know it?

I’m assuming it’s linked to the tweet in the other thread - Boro won’t let Wilder go.

[KRBFC]

You don't take credit with gambles. You win or you lose. No credit, all blame. This football club is not some plaything. The viability of a lot of small businesses in Burnley are welded to the club's ability to attract footfall, and for others, to directly engage with them economically. Don't think for a second we're too big for what happened to Bury to happen to us ten years from now. Just look at Glasgow Rangers. Look at what almost happened to Liverpool under Hicks and Gillett. Two years ago we were about as far away from the fortunes of those clubs as any could possibly be. That's not so, now. And for what? They've had a few transfer windows to sort the squad out, and yet all things considered I'd argue we're having the single worst season in a decade.

That's down to the manager, so what is the gamble in sacking him? It's so strange how people are now acting and pretending like Dyche was the man to keep us up this season before he was sacked we all knew he wasn't.

[boatshed bill]

Anyone know it?

Bloke down the pub told me this (and he's a good sauce):

Immediately after the win against Everton all those who have since been sacked put a king's ransom on Everton to stay up, Burnley to go down

[johnnyjones]

Bloke down the pub told me this (and he's a good sauce):

Immediately after the win against Everton all those who have since been sacked put a king's ransom on Everton to stay up, Burnley to go down

Same bloke told me Sean and big Dunc then left the bookies went across the road to a local pub kicked ten bells out of all the regulars and smashed the place for good measure

UTC

[BabylonClaret]

Bloke down the pub told me this (and he's a good sauce):

Immediately after the win against Everton all those who have since been sacked put a king's ransom on Everton to stay up, Burnley to go down

Well seeing as that breaks about a billion FA rules I would take that with a pinch of salt. You can bet if that was the case we would know about ut from the club

[Hipper]

I suspect you are being naive.

General rule of thumb, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck. It’s usually a duck.

This is part of the problem. It may not be a duck and it would be naive to think it is.

[FeedTheArf]

Nixon just tweeted manager hunt has taken a surprise twist. Anyone subscribe to his Patreon to find out more?

[Pearcey]

Nixon just tweeted manager hunt has taken a surprise twist. Anyone subscribe to his Patreon to find out more?

He’s probably getting some money when people sign up. I’d take what he says with a pinch of salt for this reason.

[Mattster]

Nixon just tweeted manager hunt has taken a surprise twist. Anyone subscribe to his Patreon to find out more?

Don't subscribe but the post is titled "Burnley spread the net" which to me suggests he's saying we're looking abroad.

[FeedTheArf]

Don't subscribe but the post is titled "Burnley spread the net" which to me suggests he's saying we're looking abroad.

Twitter seems to think it’s Steve Cooper

[Pearcey]

Twitter seems to think it’s Steve Cooper

Had a look and I can’t see anything.

[tiger76]

Twitter seems to think it’s Steve Cooper

Can't rely on Twiitter, but if true he'd be a brilliant appointment, done a fabulous job at Forest, and can develop young players, as well as get results, plus they play attractive footy on the eye, so I can see why we'd be interested.

However why would he leave Forest now when they are on the verge of possibly usurping us as a PL club?

[RVclaret]

Nixon just tweeted manager hunt has taken a surprise twist. Anyone subscribe to his Patreon to find out more?

Posted in the next manager chat but basically it’s that all domestic options aren’t available right now and Pace is today going into Europe to speak to a manager

[Buxtonclaret]

Cooper leaving what he's doing at Forest to come here?
I'd be very surprised.

[RVclaret]

Cooper leaving what he's doing at Forest to come here?
I'd be very surprised.

100% not Cooper. No chance.

[mkmel]

Steve Cooper has done an excellent job at Nottm Forest and they're flying up the table atm. I think also that their youth team are in the FA Youth Cup Final having beaten perennial winners Chelsea in the semis. So potentially some good young players will be coming through in the next few years.

So can't see him leaving Forest when things are going so well there.

[daveisaclaret]

Given Twitter users range from people who make things up for attention to Alan Pace himself, it's meaningless to say "Twitter seems to think" anything.

[FeedTheArf]

Given Twitter users range from people who make things up for attention to Alan Pace himself, it's meaningless to say "Twitter seems to think" anything.

It’s a fair one! That was just from one comment underneath the original Nixon tweet.

Can’t be bothered with all this. Would be nice to have them at least at the ground on Thursday even if not in charge, but looks increasingly unlikely

[karatekid]

Players should go on strike!

They have.

They struck once against West Ham, twice against Southampton, once against Wolves and twice against Watford.