Russia Invades

[bfcjg]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-against/
More help for Ukraine.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1588967754115481600

Extensive fortifications south of the Dnipro

Does suggest Russia is ready to evacuate the northern bank, including Kherson City

[bfcjg]

A few topics.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/secret-missio ... 14128.html

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-news- ... 25726.html

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/command-fled- ... 53394.html

[Taffy on the wing]

Reading the last link just confirms how barbaric Russians are….. 500 plus new conscripts abandoned & blown to bits.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-soldi ... 13692.html
Howzat

[Lancasterclaret]

https://wavellroom.com/2022/11/04/yes-m ... ign=buffer

Bit from a British Army Officer on the Ukrainian successful counter offensive in Kharkiv and the lessons learnt

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-s ... 56879.html
The EU needs to stop bailing out countries like Serbia who obviously joined for what they could bleed out of the coffers.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-s ... 56879.html
The EU needs to stop bailing out countries like Serbia who obviously joined for what they could bleed out of the coffers.

Don't think Serbia is in the EU

[bfcjg]

Don't think Serbia is in the EU

It's a candidate state, already getting help though . I should have clarified joining not joined

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... 3077170176

Thread on the defensive obstacles that Russia are building, and what will be needed for them to actually work and the political and military ideas behind them

[Dark Cloud]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... 3077170176

Thread on the defensive obstacles that Russia are building, and what will be needed for them to actually work and the political and military ideas behind them

Speaking as a non military man, is it not the best course of action for the "offensive" side (in this particular instance Ukraine) to refuse to attack this kind area, but bypass it on the flanks, imagining it can't extend indefinitely, and actually come in from the sides or even the rear. Attacking something like this is clearly exactly what the enemy want you to do and as explained in the article is very difficult if it's been organised properly (which may be stretching a point when it comes to what we've seen re the Russians so far!!!)

[Hipper]

Speaking as a non military man, is it not the best course of action for the "offensive" side (in this particular instance Ukraine) to refuse to attack this kind area, but bypass it on the flanks, imagining it can't extend indefinitely, and actually come in from the sides or even the rear. Attacking something like this is clearly exactly what the enemy want you to do and as explained in the article is very difficult if it's been organised properly (which may be stretching a point when it comes to what we've seen re the Russians so far!!!)

I'm not a military strategist but the article points out that the Russians will still need to have some fire power in range of the obstacles to make them effective. What that range is I can't say but if the Ukrainians can destroy that fire power the obstacles and troops guarding them might struggle.

[Dark Cloud]

I'm not a military strategist but the article points out that the Russians will still need to have some fire power in range of the obstacles to make them effective. What that range is I can't say but if the Ukrainians can destroy that fire power the obstacles and troops guarding them might struggle.

Indeed, I saw that too and wondered if the Russians were in a position to adequately provide the covering fire and I also thought if you simply don't engage those particular defenses, but choose to engage elsewhere, then the whole raft is rendered useless as surely it can't stretch for hundreds of miles indefinitely as doing that and doing it effectively as outlined in the article is surely impractical.

[JarrowClaret]

Speaking as a non military man, is it not the best course of action for the "offensive" side (in this particular instance Ukraine) to refuse to attack this kind area, but bypass it on the flanks, imagining it can't extend indefinitely, and actually come in from the sides or even the rear. Attacking something like this is clearly exactly what the enemy want you to do and as explained in the article is very difficult if it's been organised properly (which may be stretching a point when it comes to what we've seen re the Russians so far!!!)

Generally obstacles (this would
Include minefields) are there to either slow your progress or to send you down another route 1 where you have better defences maybe.

I think a lot of the terrain will be getting very muddy so be close to being unusable. I am guessing that they will bank on the Ukrainians using the route with the obstacles because of this and concentrate fire on this area creating a kill zone.

[Lancasterclaret]

Speaking as a non military man, is it not the best course of action for the "offensive" side (in this particular instance Ukraine) to refuse to attack this kind area, but bypass it on the flanks, imagining it can't extend indefinitely, and actually come in from the sides or even the rear. Attacking something like this is clearly exactly what the enemy want you to do and as explained in the article is very difficult if it's been organised properly (which may be stretching a point when it comes to what we've seen re the Russians so far!!!)

Yes, but fixed defenses only work if (as the article says) they are backed up by strong mobile units and effective artillery fire zones

Everyone knows about the Maginot Line and how the Germans just went around that

The positioning of these defences is questionable, which does beg the question if they are being built for a political aim (look, look, look at how we are holding Kherson) or a military aim

If its the former, then they will be effectively useless if the Ukrainians get to these areas

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 4750951424

Visual confirmation that Ukraine have captured 500 Russian tanks

Its an astonishing number (though how many they can repair and use is of course, unknown)

[bfcjg]

That is phenomenal.

[Lancasterclaret]

Keep an eye on Kherson everyone

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Keep an eye on Kherson everyone

Hasn't the assistant governor of Kherson just died in the last day or two?

[jollyjack]

Legging it! Probably into Crimea to dig in..

[KateR]

just saw this pop up, troops pulling out

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387

[Leisure]

Hasn't the assistant governor of Kherson just died in the last day or two?

In a car crash.

[Lancasterclaret]

They have absolutely no chance of getting all the heavy equipment back across the Dnipro

They will do well to avoid a complete rout as units withdraw

As they have publicly announced this, they must be well on the way to leaving already

Doing a withdrawal, across a major river, with destroyed bridges and in the face of enemy fire is about a difficult manoeuvre to carry out (with trained troops with high morale) in military terms

Be a miracle if they pull this off

[Lancasterclaret]

Right, quick analysis

Plus point for Russia - shortens the line, allows them to concentrate on hanging on in Luhansk/Donetsk and possibly a offensive up the east back of the Dnipro

But that is it

The downsides for Russia - huge political and military defeat, coming off the defeats outside Kyi'v, outside Kharki'v, and outside Izyum

They have clearly lost the initiative and are hanging on with no winning way out

Ukraine will go into 2023 full of confidence, and a shortened line helps them as well, plus they can threaten Crimea directly and have control again over the water supply

Big, big, big news

Put it one way, if you are supporting Russia, you might be thinking that you are not going to win, and that might well make some allies change their stance and countries that are currently neutral to start being stronger with Russia

[Vegas Claret]

Right, quick analysis

Plus point for Russia - shortens the line, allows them to concentrate on hanging on in Luhansk/Donetsk and possibly a offensive up the east back of the Dnipro

But that is it

The downsides for Russia - huge political and military defeat, coming off the defeats outside Kyi'v, outside Kharki'v, and outside Izyum

They have clearly lost the initiative and are hanging on with no winning way out

Ukraine will go into 2023 full of confidence, and a shortened line helps them as well, plus they can threaten Crimea directly and have control again over the water supply

Big, big, big news

Put it one way, if you are supporting Russia, you might be thinking that you are not going to win, and that might well make some allies change their stance and countries that are currently neutral to start being stronger with Russia

Surely a retreat to the other side if a river won't make much difference to their vulnerability given the weapons Ukraine has ? Is this not the absolute beginning for the end for Russia outside of Russia itself ?

[Lancasterclaret]

Surely a retreat to the other side if a river won't make much difference to their vulnerability given the weapons Ukraine has ? Is this not the absolute beginning for the end for Russia outside of Russia itself ?

A retreat across a river in the face of a superior enemy is hard - I've mentioned it before, but the only example I can think of when it was done successfully is across the same River in Autumn 1943, and then the Germans had six undamaged bridges, Manstein in command and a Russian army at the edge of its supply lines

Now?

HIMARS and Ukrainian artillery have the crossing points under fire, all the bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and the calibre and equipment of the Russian units is suspect.

Will Russia risk leaving its elite units to cover the withdrawal of the dross?

Unlikely

Its all about how much they have managed to get across without Ukraine and its allies noticing, and the chances of doing that in the world of NATO electronic surveillance are close to nil

This could get ugly really quickly for Russia

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 6976877568

Ukrainian advisor to Zelensky saying that Ukraine kicked out the Russians from Kherson (which is true)

[Elbarad]

Totally agree. It should get very bloody for Russia if they make a good withdraw. If there is chaos it will be incredibly bad. You would think the worlds 2nd army could pull this off, but not based on recent experience.

[Lancasterclaret]

Regarding the electronic signals stuff giving away the intentions

Quick explainer

Imagine that the 14th Guards Tank Army HQ is a location on the north side of the Dnipro outside Kherson - its been identified by Ukraine/NATO due to the electronic noise it generates (signals, movement of vehicles, satellite imagery etc etc etc)

Then that mass of electronic/physical noise moves to south of the Dnipro, but the military front line remains unchanged

Its a clear sign to everyone that they are planning for the withdrawal

Ukraine then steps up the pressure on the sector held by the 14th Guards Tank Army (I'm just using this unit as an example, it could be on the Mongolian border or not even exist for I know!) which is in the process of withdrawing

That gets ugly, really, really quickly

[bfcjg]

Some interviews with Ukraine soldiers on the front line.

[LeadBelly]

I've seen quite a few reports (some pictures) of destroyed bridges in Kherson right bank area (not across the Dnieper). Reports are that Russians have done this- presumably to slow down/hinder pursuit of their retreat. (Not good news for any Russian heavy weaponry/ soldiers needing transport on the wrong side of the bridges mind).

The withdrawal announcement could be something of a trap but I doubt they could hugely fool intelligence collecting by Ukraine and its allies.
There's bound to be a lot of Russian losses if they are retreating- given some of the accurate weaponry now available to Ukraine and the lack of river crossing points. I'm sure the Russians will have planned as well as they can- but the experience so far in this war is that "as well as they can" isn't very good.

I saw this pertinent quote by somebody: "Russian troops just saw on TV that they are withdrawing... over a mile wide river... with 30,000+ men trying to cross a dam, a damaged bridge, and a damaged pontoon."

You've got to wonder why withdrawal was announced given it must be bad for troop morale. I presume they realize that whatever they do will be picked up by Ukraine intelligence anyway so it's hardly giving away a secret. On the plus side for them it's probably more palatable for domestic consumption to announce a withdrawal now rather than suffer a more obvious military defeat a bit later.

[Elbarad]

Even assuming they manage to cross the river in good order, not likely but anything's possible. What I think this will do is create kind of a reverse feature of what's going on on the Belarus border and Kharkov city fronts, where the Ukrainians will be able to pin Russian forces on the east side of the river with threat of crossing, while they can free up forces for other fronts. If they can put a good enough show on the west side, Russian troops and artillery will need to stay to defend a crossing that the Ukrainians might never intend to make.

[bfcjg]

Some interviews with Ukraine soldiers on the front line.

Link this time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... 1668012499

[Paul Waine]

Ukraine war: Briton Simon Lingard killed in conflict

A British man has been killed while fighting in Ukraine.

Simon Lingard, from Blackburn, Lancashire, died when his unit was attacked on Monday.

His family described him as "the bravest man" and a "true hero", who went to Ukraine to "stand up for what he believed was right".

A Foreign Office spokesman said it was supporting the family of a British national who had lost his life in Ukraine.

"We are in touch with the local authorities in connection with his death," he added.

Stacey Longworth, the mother of Mr Lingard's two children, said he had been a soldier for most of his life, and when the invasion started, she was "just waiting for him to tell me he was going to go".

She said she kept in touch with him when possible while he was in Ukraine before getting a phone call on Monday night to say he had been killed.

"I'm aware they were under attack, and that it was shrapnel, and that it was instant," she said.

"I've been in contact with close friends of his in Ukraine. They are absolutely distraught."

Mr Lingard, who was known as Grimmy to his friends, was a former member of the parachute regiment.

"Telling them was the most difficult thing I've ever had to do," Ms Longworth said.

"We want people to remember him as a hero.

"He was very funny, an inspiration and he was loved and adored by so many."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-63574461

[clansman]

Simon was from Great Harwood.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status ... 5904658433

Thread on Russian ferry operations on the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast

[NewClaret]

Simon was from Great Harwood.

Unbelievably sad.

Incredibly brave man.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: The Institute for the Study of War in a regular report analyzed the situation in Kherson

According to TheStudyofWar experts, Russia's withdrawal from Kherson is "unlikely to be a trap meant to lure Ukrainian troops into costly combat near Kherson.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/159 ... q8drgByQZw

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590755455340810240

Evacuation going really quickly

As has already been stated, Russia is going to struggle to pull this off without significant troop/equipment losses

[AlargeClaret]

Im presuming ,as Russia have publically announced this ,they've been moving men and equipement out over the last month or so anyway. my take on this is they're officially not defending their line(s) in outer city limits and will just concentrate firepower defending their rearguard and "orderly" retreat. As shambolic as the Russians have often been ,they've had a fair bit of time and planning on this one. Could it even be possible if some kind of deal has been brokered by the US? ie retreat fast and we'll simply re-take towns as you get out? Unlikely but not impossible.

[Lancasterclaret]

Im presuming ,as Russia have publically announced this ,they've been moving men and equipement out over the last month or so anyway. my take on this is they're officially not defending their line(s) in outer city limits and will just concentrate firepower defending their rearguard and "orderly" retreat. As shambolic as the Russians have often been ,they've had a fair bit of time and planning on this one. Could it even be possible if some kind of deal has been brokered by the US? ie retreat fast and we'll simply re-take towns as you get out? Unlikely but not impossible.

From what I'm reading, they have essentially their "best" (in their opinion) formations holding on to Kherson (Paratroops*) while everyone else tries to leave as orderly as possible

They should be able to give good covering fire from the southern bank, and they apparently have five defensive lines to retreat to before the Dnipro, but its all depends on how well organised the withdrawal is and how quickly the Ukrainians can exploit it

If I had to hazard a guess, the Ukrainians will push cautiously, and rely on the artillery and HIMARS to disrupt the evacuation as they must be pretty exhausted as well

But you just don't know, all it takes is a unit to collapse and strong Ukrainian force to break through and its would be chaos

[Lancasterclaret]

Im presuming ,as Russia have publically announced this ,they've been moving men and equipement out over the last month or so anyway. my take on this is they're officially not defending their line(s) in outer city limits and will just concentrate firepower defending their rearguard and "orderly" retreat. As shambolic as the Russians have often been ,they've had a fair bit of time and planning on this one. Could it even be possible if some kind of deal has been brokered by the US? ie retreat fast and we'll simply re-take towns as you get out? Unlikely but not impossible.

Oh almost forget, the cornerstone of their defensive line fell before the Russian announcement, and you do wonder if that city falling meant the Russians decided to bring forward (as they have no choice) the evacuation and try to control the narrative

You do wonder how they are selling the defeats at Kyi'v, Kharki'v, Lyman and now Kherson as anything other than huge defeats

[AlargeClaret]

From what I'm reading, they have essentially their "best" (in their opinion) formations holding on to Kherson (Paratroops*) while everyone else tries to leave as orderly as possible

They should be able to give good covering fire from the southern bank, and they apparently have five defensive lines to retreat to before the Dnipro, but its all depends on how well organised the withdrawal is and how quickly the Ukrainians can exploit it

If I had to hazard a guess, the Ukrainians will push cautiously, and rely on the artillery and HIMARS to disrupt the evacuation as they must be pretty exhausted as well

But you just don't know, all it takes is a unit to collapse and strong Ukrainian force to break through and its would be chaos

Interesting,and like you say if the UKR break through ,they'll be scenting blood and it could get very messy on both sides,especially the Russians. I can't help thinking crossing on boats/barges/pontoons etc are sitting ducks for HIMARS.

[Lancasterclaret]

Interesting,and like you say if the UKR break through ,they'll be scenting blood and it could get very messy on both sides,especially the Russians. I can't help thinking crossing on boats/barges/pontoons etc are sitting ducks for HIMARS.

Dunno if you've further up this page, but there is a good thread on the ferries and crossing points that Russia are using - very hard to hit, especially at night

I think I mentioned it a while back, but they pulled a lot of their artillery on to the other side of the Dnipro quite some time ago as they were struggling to supply it, and as long as the pontoon bridges hold, they would be able to pull out quite a lot quickly*

*as long as the defensive lines hold, and are evacuated in time and in good order

Put it one way, I wouldn't fancy being amongst the last to leave

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Sagakino1/status/15 ... 6648136705

Stuff like this will be the first thing to be abandoned as the Russians retreat btw

[box_of_frogs]

Simon was from Great Harwood.

Every Man an Emperor.

[LeadBelly]

The pace of retaking villages has certainly picked up these last two days. Ukrainians were slowly advancing before but several villages liberated on 3/4 axes today: towards the dam from both north east (Mylove) and north (Davidyv Brid); also towards Kherson city from west and north west direction.
Reaching the dam quickly would be a great plus in cutting off one crossing and hopefully stopping the possibility of the dam being blown.
Almost bound to be more resistance somewhere though.

[Aclaret]

Why are Russia telling the world they are retreating ? Not sure why you let your enemy in war know what you are doing !

[Lancasterclaret]

Why are Russia telling the world they are retreating ? Not sure why you let your enemy in war know what you are doing !

They are retreating anyway

This is not their choice, they are being forced to do it by the Ukrainians and their attacks on the Russian supply lines

Remember Russia announced Kherson as part of the Russian Federation a couple of months ago

They are going to try to spin this as something to do with withdrawing to better defensive lines and will be back in the new year

[JarrowClaret]

This is very odd and such strange way to announce the withdrawal.

It smells of either a come on with a trap set somewhere maybe in Kherson City or some sort of agreement has been struck between the US, Russia and Ukraine, it could of course also be genuine and they are fully withdrawing only time will tell. I imagine the Ukrainians will take their time as much as is possible much as they did in Kharkiv until they were past the point of no return.

I would expect the Russians to have mass equipment and personnel losses over the next few days, if not either they have withdrawn the vast majority pre announcement (too organised for them surely) or they struck a deal in my opinion.