Looks like we are back to worrying about we can and can't spend again. I seem to remember similar messages from yourself all last summer...ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:29 amI don't know the ins and outs of the deal with MSD. I can only say that the view that the club made these announcements on some of the companies and not others because they are cautious about PR needs further elaboration as to why that would be. It makes little sense to me.
There seems little credible evidence that there is new investment from the owners. They don't appear to have any money and it's not credible given the nature of the deal and how the owners will make money from any sale of the club. The value of the deal is in the money taken from the clubs bank accounts. Unless the football marketplace changes dramatically there is little or no financial sense in putting more money in to it.
Let's start off with the business rationale and work backwards from there Paul. We both presumably agree that we need at least 4 first 11 players and likely another 4 to be competitive in the PL. So, unless the club has generated cash of £25 million this year (to pull a figure out of the air) as well as pay off the best part of $60 million to MSD. another x amount of million to the former owners and a decent spend in January we presume they will need more cash.
We our talking the best part of £100 million spend this year. I know we did good business in the summer selling players but I don't see it adds up to paying off MSD. Due to the nature of cash and how it is paid in football I don't think we can say with any real accuracy where the club is at but it seems unlikely that ALK can do what no one else can and generate tens of millions out of thin air.
At this point, they probably don't need cash until the summer and there seems little point in going out for more funding when PL status is only a matter of a month or so away. So, there is no business reason to do any deals now.
They need to gamble on staying in the PL because the first two or three years in the PL is where a club like Burnley makes money after that it gets hard because EFL contracts are replaced by PL contracts. So, there is a potential strategy for success in the medium term if the club can survive more than one season in the PL.
So, the only credible view IMHO is what others have said that we are in the middle of a re-structuring deal, which will generate cash for a summer splurge and that the medium term plan is to fund it from the cash generated from PL broadcast revenue in the first 2 or 3 seasons back in the PL.
It makes sense to me - the only flaw in the plan from a fans perspective is that they bought a small town PL club and if everything goes to plan we will still be a small town PL club at the end of it. And perhaps, that is good enough....!
Just to point out
1. the club can and probably will forward it's PL 2023-24 TV money in the summer (we've done this before, as do others), giving us the cash flow immediately.
2. deals we do will be paid over years with an initial deposit, you don't need the full 50m there and then.
3. we can sign 2 loans (domestically at least) and free transfers if we like any.
I don't think the club needs to 'gamble' on staying in the PL, as this season has proved, there can be a smart strategy in place should we come back down, leaving us with saleable assets to build a promotion winning team. I do think they will be absolutely planning on taking advantage of having a top manager, though... and what this sizeable gap for promotion has allowed is a massive headstart on all of this for the summer (compared to someone in the play offs who has to wait until the end of May).